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Chinese economy into deflation puzzle building materials prices fell to historic lows | building materials market | historic lows
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About deflation topic of discussion Chinese industry as early as 2012, we have already begun to discuss that China is entering deflation intensifying cycle, for two reasons,louboutin femme escarpin, first,louboutin homme, the production of traditional Chinese Industrial Structure under serious excess capacity led to slow economic growth, the second is the bulk bear commodities, especially crude oil prices led to falling international prices of industrial products in the doldrums China.
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In this situation, building materials and related industries, domestic and foreign competition has emerged. Both macroeconomic analysts believe that the introduction of domestic sustained easing is a high probability event,hogan outlet, under the influence, Chinese real estate investment growth picked up, after this point in time about the second quarter, that time China's economy is likely to come out of deflation.
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Chinese economy into a puzzle
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National Bureau of Statistics January 9 released, in December 2014, PPI fell 3.3%,louboutin ebay, 34 consecutive months of sustained negative, and recorded the largest drop since September 2012; CPI rose 1.5%, compared with 11 May rebounded slightly,new balance 1500, but still the fourth consecutive month below the 2% run.
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SDIC Nakatani futures macro interest rate researcher Zou Jing Yang said the dollar index steadily rising commodity prices continue to suppress, CRB spot index fell 3% since the beginning, the international crude oil prices in the new year after the still stumble endlessly,d&g occhiali da sole, NYMEX crude oil futures prices since January have cumulative decline of 15.7%.
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Affected by this,new balance nb 574, the domestic refined oil prices fell for the first time in thirteen, non-food prices certainty drag. Taking into account the Spring Festival dislocation factors,hogan interactive donna, expected in January year on year CPI will fall to the level close to 1%. According to the just released in January 2015 HSBC manufacturing PMI initial value,cappelli adidas, the purchase price index rose from 43.1 in December fell to 39.9, price index fell to 44.9 from 43.9 in December, the PPI is expected to last 12 further extended losses last month -3.3% level, highlighting the deflationary pressure. Zou Jing Yang said.
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In a deflationary environment, the variety of building materials and real estate prices are most closely related to the market concerned, such asset price deflation situation in China is an important interpretation of the weather vane, therefore, the 2015 high-profile real estate situation.
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Goldman Sachs believes the latest report released in 2015, China's real estate industry will be lower mortgage rates, real estate developers to reduce inventory and reduce the contribution to GDP changes. Goldman Sachs expects the real estate sales in 2015 and 2014, approximately the same rates and, in the case of high inventory and the shadow of the credit crunch, real estate construction will cool down.
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Vice President Hai Tong Securities chief economist Lee Thunder recently, it was written that in 2015 the Chinese economy walk between deflation and squeeze the bubble narrow path. 2014 - November society as a whole residential electricity consumption growth rate of only 2%, and even residential electricity consumption growth rate fell sharply, China's urbanization has entered late, the population age structure, 25-44 age group are the main buyers, but the population in this age group from 2015 will be a net reduction. Therefore, the future of real estate should be facing to the bubble pressure, to maintain price stability,abbigliamento peuterey outlet, the foam does not break has been pretty good.
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Building materials prices fell to historic lows
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In this situation, building materials and related industries, domestic and foreign competition has emerged.
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According to Chinese Customs statistics, China last year to October compared with the same period last year, steel exports increased by 42.2%, reaching 73.89 million tons. From the monthly data, September, October exports were 850 million tons.
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Analysts said China's steel price index fell faster than the global average,scarpe hogan donna, the average export price is lower than the international level of 1,500 yuan / ton, the continuing weakness in the background under China's overcapacity in steel prices formed a certain external competitiveness.
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China Steel fled behind the domestic competition is more fierce. It is understood, affected by seasonal factors, the construction period is shorter in northern China, after the real estate and other infrastructure projects, some or all of downtime, iron ore, as the representative of the glass facing the building materials market demand saturation, capacity overflow situation. However, according to industry claims that the national real estate downturn that affected the building materials market price difference is gradually reduced,louboutin prix, leaving the north to south of building materials under pressure, related goods such as iron ore,peuterey spaccio, steel,louboutin soldes, glass and other building materials continue to fall varieties is a high probability event.
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Futures disk, as of yesterday, steel,air max 90, iron, glass and other commodity prices are close to the historical record of the lowest price.
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In three rebar, for example, in December 2014 the average price of 2766 yuan / ton, while in 2008 the highest point of 5866 yuan per ton,hogan interactive donna, compared with a decrease of 52.8%, down 21.7% compared with the beginning. According to reports, the main steel in Shandong Laiwu origin, nearly half of the steel trade companies have closed their doors.
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Guoxin Futures coal steel industry researcher Shiyu Chen said that since 2014, real estate, cars and other major steel industry's performance not satisfactory, efforts to implement infrastructure investment has also been insufficient local government financial constraints, construction progress slowed down. These have a negative impact on steel demand.
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And subject to the constraints of large international mining companies, Chinese iron ore market downturn, more optimism. Shiyu Chen said that as the international iron ore producers was significantly lower than the cost of domestic ore price had fallen despite half a year, but still wants to expand its market share,levis occhiali da vista, have stepped up expansion, future iron ore prices still continue down space.
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For domestic steel mills, although the spot steel prices continued to fall, but the low price of raw materials is still a good business to make profits, so the mills are still generally maintain high capacity utilization, which led to the demand for steel even in winter season,soldes christian, spot resource supply market to remain high, which also makes the spot steel prices more than Yindie.
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