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China's global trade in goods first decryption
Even if the first four months of last year China trade data authenticity is still controversial, but in 2013 the line to the end of the year, the signs still show that China's global trade in goods surpassed the United States, and for the first time among the first to "chair" is a foregone conclusion.
January 10 this year, the State Customs Service spokesman, China Statistics Division Zheng Yue sound at the State Council Information Office press conference that in 2013 China's global trade in goods than the United States, for the first time ranked first in the world has been basically a foregone conclusion in addition, in 2013 China's import and export trade value of goods once again entered a new stage a trillion.
Zheng Yue sound and then given the above conclusion is based - - 10 months of 2013, China's trade in goods data, as well as the United States had announced a day of November trade data.
This is basically the "First Financial Daily" reported earlier this month match. As early as January 8, according to newspaper reporters will last 11 months prior to the data, in accordance with international trade and statistical projections WTO adopted conclusions drawn Zheng Yue sound, and noted that the United States in 2013 to keep the world's first full-year total trade is a "mission impossible."
Behind this,basket louboutin, in 2013 China's foreign trade What's new? What force in promoting China's trade has become the first in the world? At least for now, "China Going Global" is not negligible factor.
January 2013 to November,louboutin chaussures, China has achieved non-financial overseas direct investment in $ 80.24 billion, an increase of up to 28.3%, it is foreseeable that in the future, as China's "going out" to accelerate the pace, will drive China-related exports growth.
"Mission Impossible" behind
At a press conference on January 10, and Zheng Yue sound provides a set of data for the presence of reporters, with evidence that he has said.
Zheng Yue sound data provided, the first 10 months of 2013, China's import and export trade of goods worth more than the United States announced $ 192 billion, an increase of US rate was up 7 percentage points, according to another aspect of the US release of January 9 November's data, as of November, the US trade in goods and export growth rate of less than 1%.
"If, according to the data projections,hogan donna, I think our country than the United States in 2013,moncler pas cher, for the first time ranked first can be said that the global trade in goods has been basically a foregone conclusion." Zheng Yue Yeung said.
Data show that in 2013 China import and export value reached US $ 4.16 trillion, which is not only an annual record high, also China's foreign trade import and export value topped $ 4 trillion mark. Prior to 2004, 2007 and 2011, respectively, exceeded $ 1 trillion and $ 2 trillion and $ 3 trillion mark.
According to Customs statistics, in 2013 China's total imports and exports 25.83 trillion yuan (4.16 trillion US dollars),escarpin louboutin, net of exchange rates up 7.6 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than in 2012. Which is nearing completion of the early development of import and export volume grew 8% target.
Early this newspaper has reported, since last year, from January to November, China's import and export total value of 23.43 trillion yuan (3.77 trillion US dollars), net of exchange rates, an increase of 7.7%. This calculation, if the month of December the total import and export grew 10.6%, the annual "protect eight" can be realized. Data just released show that in December, China's export value reached 2.39 trillion yuan (US $ 389.84 billion), an increase of 6.2%. Thus,tiffany setting prezzo, last year, the final year growth rate reached 7.6%, close to but failed to reach 8%.
As for the "High" in the case of the first four months of 2013 import and export data, Zheng Yue sound indicates there is no adjustment plan. "The problem last April, customs data for some volatility, we have no plans to adjust."
Publicly available data show that the first half of last year, despite some twists and turns, but the second half of the trade data regression trend is to the good, after a slight decline in September,hogan scontate, November,rayban lunette de soleil, China's total import and export growth rate year on year high: 9.3%.
Data accuracy disputes
We must mention that China last year is more special to the first four months of trade data appeared false controversy, and affect the credibility of the overall data to some extent.
General Administration of Customs released data show that in January 2013 to April, total import and export 8.36 trillion yuan (US $ 1,330,750,000,000), net of exchange rates, an increase of 14%.
First four months of 2013, although China's traditional export markets in Europe and Japan,chaussures nike pas cher, the growth rate has declined, the United States has increased by 10% or less, but the Hong Kong Trade unexpectedly high. Especially in Guangdong, Shenzhen and other places of business in Hong Kong, the growth is even more alarming.
Data show that the first four months of last year, China-EU bilateral trade value dropped by 1.3%. Sino-Japanese bilateral trade value dropped 8.5%. Bilateral trade value increased by 9.4% for China-ASEAN bilateral trade value increased by 18.1%, while the total value of bilateral trade between mainland China and Hong Kong has increased by 66%, reaching $ 150.59 billion.
In the overall economic data is not very ideal situation, the above abnormal performance, immediately caused high-level attention and thorough investigation of the cause. After five months to end-June decline to adjust to the beginning of July and gradually entered a period of steady rise, but it also led to full-year 2013 data will be artificially high due to the first four months of data error occurs.
"First Financial Daily" reporter had learned from authoritative sources, speeding growth early last year data, in addition to the business tax considerations, very important reason is that local governments have an incentive to promote the general data growth.
According to the US International Trade Commission published in 2008, "Sino-US trade Deviation Positive: importers and exporters circumvention" report, US Importers are also large numbers of false situation, because commercially driven. Mainly for the exporter to circumvent export duties and deliberately reported lower export prices, and multinational importers are likely to circumvent the higher corporate profits tax, reported high import prices.
Vice president of the China Foreign Trade and Economic Statistical Society Guhuai Qin told reporters that, in this case, regardless of America,moncler bambino, for whatever purpose,woolrich outlet bologna, as long as the import and export documents correctly,basket nike air max, the statistics law, the procedure is correct, there is no way has been corrected data error,louboutin soldes, unless the correction customs statistics system itself.
2014: positive and constraints
Zheng Yue sound to express our expanding development of foreign trade, we should put more energy transferred to the quality and efficiency of the above development of foreign trade.
Zheng Yue sound predicted that, on the whole, the 2014 foreign trade development environment is better than in 2013. 2014 China's foreign trade growth is facing a positive factor in international demand and domestic macro-policy environment improvement and so on,cinture ermenegildo zegna, there's a cost elements rise and trade frictions and other constraints. If there are no major international and domestic economic risks, China's foreign trade will enter a period of steady growth, quality and efficiency of development of foreign trade is also expected to further improve.
Specific analysis, Zheng Yue says that there are four positive factors, there are also four constraints.
On the positive factors,chaussures femme louboutin, in addition to the world economy,scarpe hogan uomo, especially the developed economies to accelerate warming, global trade growth is expected to improve;-eighth session of the Third Plenary Session and other policy factors; coupled with the international market commodity prices will remain low for, help domestic enterprises to reduce costs, efforts to increase imports of the three factors, there is a major factor for the Chinese "going out" to accelerate the pace, driven by investment-related products export growth.
According to statistics,gucci bracciali, from January to November last year,doudoune moncler, China's non-financial overseas direct investment in $ 80.24 billion, an increase of 28.3%. Growth of foreign investment will continue to drive our investment-related equipment, the growth of intermediate goods exports.
In addition, Zheng Yue sound also pointed out the constraints of this year's foreign trade development.
Zheng Yue sound believes that the cost of domestic foreign trade enterprises is constantly increasing the competitiveness of China's neighboring countries in the rapid promotion, so Foreign Trade Growth squeezed. At the same time, China's actual use of foreign manufacturing decline and sluggish processing trade imports, will restrict the growth of exports.
In the fourth quarter of last year, China's processing trade imports increased by only 2.5%, the annual processing trade imports only 3.3% growth. Because the characteristics of processing trade exports after the first import, processing trade growth also indicates that the downturn in the next period of time the export processing trade will not be very optimistic.
In addition, Zheng Yue sound that in recent years China's economy will continue to intensify structural adjustment, especially in efforts to solve the serious problem of excess production capacity, which is rapid growth in import demand will be suppressed, will also slow down.
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