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Academy of Social Sciences released 2016 "Economic Blue Book" next year the situation is still grim | China | Published,nike shox homme
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December 16, Academy of Social Sciences was held in 2016 "Economic Blue Book" published and China's Economic Situation in Beijing. Conference System Analysis of China's Economic Situation in 2015 and forecast 2016 economic operation situation of China, and officially released 2016 "Economic Blue Book."
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Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Li Yang, former president of keynote speeches related issues.
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Li Yang said that the current situation is very complex, and next year and 13 five possible a considerable extent there are some serious situation. From the international situation,hogan sito ufficiale, is still carried on since 2007 kinetic energy crisis, the crisis has been almost eight years, but the whole situation is still not fundamentally improved. The crisis caused by some fundamental reasons, such as leverage hanging, such as lower productivity, such as increases in deficits and high unemployment, and so on, these are basically not improved in certain on may deteriorate. Therefore, the international situation and the whole next year China Thirteen Five times, we are not optimistic attitude.
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Recently, a judgment worthy of our attention, beginning in 2007, the global economic recession, may enter a new phase, it was also said to be the third stage. The first stage is the United States as the representative of Subprime Lending Crisis, the US crisis; The second stage is the debt crisis; the third stage is likely to be a crisis in developing countries. We can recognize the crisis in several ways:
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First,doudoune moncler pas cher, global growth is far from ideal, since it was generally predicted growth rate of the lowest of the crisis, although we have so many measures, but these measures have so much side effects, but the crisis has not been eliminated,acheter louboutin, so that our economy in 2015 growth rate is the lowest since the crisis.
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Second, we are very sorry to see since the global crisis in a kind of reverse globalization path. We know that before the crisis, globalization is a trend, and in the beginning of this year, Premier Li Keqiang government work report when there is a very clear words China is a promoter of globalization, we believe that globalization is a historical trend, China in the world is a positive of positive energy. But the statistics tell us, is the inverse of globalization, since the main indicators for three consecutive years, global trade growth below the global economic growth. Everyone minding, but also some negative constraints of others, and now the global trade disputes than in previous years,hogan outlet milano, fully illustrates this point.
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Third, the entire emerging market countries, economic growth has begun to weak average growth rate, in particular the trade growth rate has been lower than average growth rate, which is a very nasty thing. Because before the crisis to show this trend,louboutin chaussures, the world's emerging economies by developed economies can any of its longevity, I am afraid for a long time has not improved. We now place their hopes with developing countries and emerging economies, we found that this condition is not good, the situation is relatively poor in emerging economies, only China and India, growth is still possible,hogan saldi online, but compared to past levels is also relatively a significant decline.
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Fourth, global interest rates, the lowest since World War II levels. Shortly before the meeting was said to be a minimum of five thousand years, five thousand years do not know how low is counted out, but it certainly is the lowest of World War II. Interest rates talking about the capital gains rate, currently very low return on investment, return on investment because the rate is very low, but in many countries the rate of return is negative, so that monetary policy must result in a negative currency rates to match. No investment income, but also to engage in a positive, high levels of investment community simply can not afford. So we see from the beginning of last year, the ECB introduced negative interest rates, down twice in the last year, this year once again lowered interest rates along the negative levels decline further, so only five thousand people say is the lowest since five thousand Currency no negative interest rates. US interest rates have not been announced do not know, I want to say has been said about the dollar hike more than a year, a very important reason for the delay in raising interest rates, because the investment return rate is very low, from zero up plus, for investment is certainly a negative impact on investment without good performance, then, economic recovery easier said than done. This is what we face next year and 13 V, even in my opinion the problem or fifteen facing us is not favorable, our development plan, we are doing research when negative impact on the international to fully attention. This is the first aspect I want to say, next year and major fluctuations in Thirteen Five to growth.
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From the domestic point of view, I think we have to see, I want to say two meanings: First, from the growth levels than in the past is certainly in decline, has fallen from the past on the high-speed high-speed level, which It is an indisputable fact that we have to confirm the facts. Thirteen Five planning proposals which President Xi Jinping and planning recommendations regarding Thirteen Five instructions have told us, at home and abroad for China's economic forecasts are that the thirteen five at 6% -7%, whichever is the one of 6.5% 6.5% is our guarantee of quadruple bottom line. So,peuterey, for Thirteen Five of economic growth, we generally have a spectrum.
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Over the past 30 years a number of changes in the structure of China has led to China's economic miracle, after the past few years began to go down Thirteen Five, or fifteen, fifteen V. It would take a decade or even longer time, we change this structure It will become mainstream, and this change may give us a slow decline from the growth rate for health. My initial list a bit, such as markets, China's reform and opening up the market from the beginning, turned out to be a high degree of administrative, height of planning, from the late 1970s, with regard to the market to establish a socialist market economy as the goal, deepen market-oriented, a lot of liberating the productive forces for China's economic growth has brought a very big positive energy. Now the market in depth, but apparently not such a powerful force that year, but also to China's economic development today, we find that the economic problem is not just a market will be able to solve.
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Why do we call the socialist market economy? Is the basis for the allocation of resources is the market forces, but the whole running is not entirely rely on the free market, not the government market, this is not our goal. So the market has begun to factor in some changes, and then there is a relatively strong factors, such as the demographic dividend over the past 30 years,louboutin en ligne, China's population structure based on more favorable configuration for potential growth,hogan sito ufficiale, so that such a large young population to employment, and then create a bonus. Such a structure over the past few decades has led to China's economic growth also led to changes in the structure we might decade economic growth will decline in the future.
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We all know that we do not have much time to alter the demographic policy, when we are still discussing, the eighth session of the Fifth Plenary had decided to launch a two-child policy, theorists still talk,scarpe hogan, but under the CPC Central Committee immediately determination, announced at the Fifth plenary Session of the two-child policy, which fully shows that we have recognized that population structure has started against us, we have to put such a structure should be adjusted to favor our future growth.
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Third industrialization. Over the past 30 years we have benefited industrialized rapidly advancing, I can say that overall, the number of our Hospital Institute of Economy, they have very fine research on this issue today,adidas stan smith, their study concluded that, on the whole Chinese industrialization, traditional industrialization has come to late. Structurally speaking, China's coastal areas have been industrialized, but the mainland is in the industrialization and some mid or late. In these heavy chemical industry to develop the manufacturing sector is characterized by the traditional industrialization today has gone or very low. We are faced with another round of new industrialization, and this round of industrialization is the development of the service sector, further allow interactive services and manufacturing growth is characterized by this round of industrialization, which is an industrialized obviously we still on the road, we also discuss, released this year in China 2025 is our transition to a new type of industrialization notable sign is one of our strategies. Although the proposed strategy, but also in order to achieve is not easy, in the reform still needs to entrepreneurship, innovation, so that we get some of the new-type industrialization desired effect. So, for us it is also a factor in making the economic slowdown.
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Fourth urbanization. Over the past 30 years of growth, urbanization and did not become our leading engine, but because of China's urbanization in the past few decades, our study is to follow a process of industrialization. China first with industrialization, with the industrialization of the population is concentrated there, with the population concentrated urban development there, although it is not as the first engine, but it does have a very big impact on China's economy, where urbanization for active role in promoting the real estate market contributed. But today urbanization apparently a new phase, and to expand our traditional sense of the city is characterized, in particular, to invest in real estate investment as the main engine of industrialization and urbanization that China has basically stopped in many areas. Now there are a lot of recent research is the kind of traditional sense of urbanization has been difficult to sustain.
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New urbanization urbanization is not only people, but even more important is the equalization of public services, it is the pursuit of urban-rural integration, the pursuit of urban-rural integration, the pursuit of public service equalization urbanization, urban sprawl and the original population of the city transfer, and this feature is different from its impact on our economic growth is very different. Now the old urbanization and some medium-sized, new urbanization is to explore, expand,air max zero, in order to make it fully functional yet more of our efforts.
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Because of this some initial tasks so that China's economic growth rate of decline, we call structural speed. This is one aspect of the Chinese economy, I say, I would like to emphasize that China's economic growth, the economic situation in recent years and the future of Thirteen Five, or fifteen, fifteen five evaluation of the Chinese economy, it should be is a comprehensive, not like the last look at a few rates, especially look at GDP, it is very one-sided. So that this judgment is because of China's economic expansion has been a kind of pure quantity, is the kind of out of poverty and catch up, after that stage, we are now beyond the middle-income trap, the goal is to achieve all-round development of people, we in addition to GDP, should also make life more comfortable, in addition to the growth rate, but also increase the sustainability of our quality, responsibility efficiency and growth, in addition to GDP than we, we have more blue day, more suitable economic environment that we have to this extent. Therefore, we judge China's economic situation, when, do you want to quickly get rid of the original framework. We analyzed the budget framework has begun to adjust, we basically look at a table a few years ago, such as how much to invest to grow, how much of that investment growth, we are now more strength on the environment, quality, efficiency.
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So, this is a matter of choice, in the past few decades is the growth rate of our main choice, and now we have chosen a more comprehensive development, more sustainable, more humane, more healthy and comprehensive development, so we met when you want to haze the sky instead of GDP, a few years ago this situation has already begun. We have entered a period of choice, and more inclined to choose our environment, more inclined to some of the connotations of quality and efficiency indicators, rather than the past, we pay special attention extensional, we can clear indicators of progress. For example, we now yuan GDP water, energy, pollution, carbon emissions yuan GDP in the past have been given targets, but in the past we do not pay attention, so basically these indicators have not been completed. Last year we completed, or will complete this year these indicators,cinture ferragamo, complete these indicators on the Chinese economy to a healthy development path. I want to say is that although China's GDP growth rate slow down, but China's environment, quality, efficiency and sustainability are improving steadily so the whole of the current economic situation is very good.
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Recently, we often in a meeting and some foreigners, a lot of people say that we really envy you, but we have to be prepared themselves to see our problems. However, we must not sell ourselves short, for example, how bad, in fact we move towards a new stage, has entered a new stage.
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I think today want this meeting, at least I think I express the idea: First,escarpins louboutin, the international environment is indeed negative, but in the negative direction. Second, China must look from both sides, one side is only for speed, as well as GDP and GDP-related revenue rate, money supply, prices and so on,magasin louboutin, which makes us look a little worried. Third,alviero martini occhiali da sole, the Chinese economy has entered a comprehensive, integrated, and the connotation of growth path, this path will enable us to get rid of the middle-income trap, so that we can eventually become a developed country. I think this is the way, so be sure to have a concentration, and must not be subject to some disturbance. Of course, in this process, there will be a lot of problems, so in order to solve such problems, the central macro-control strategy has been said very clearly, and macro-stability and micro invigorate the underpinning of social policy, in the course of such a transformation in, there will be some companies, there are some industries, there are a number of difficulties in some areas, we need social policies underpinning. So, we have established a good, effective and sustainable social safety net is necessary,ceinture d, at the Fifth Plenary Session which also has some suggestions in this regard and arrangements.
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Of the year, we summarize the economic situation, the outlook next year, I think it should be full of confidence, of course, the challenges we may face should be well prepared, and I believe that under the leadership of General Secretary Xi Jinping, we will be able to overcome the difficulties, we can effective, to a smooth and orderly development path up.
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