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People's Daily: the middle-income trap risk is still in line with the economic slowdown law
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Under the new normal across the middle-income trap (people to be on)
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China's economic development has entered a new normal, GDP growth declined from 10.4% in 2010 down to the present, about 7.0%. In this case, bad-mouthing China, China increased risk of falling into the trap of middle-income and other sound was underway. Then, after entering the new normal, of whether and how to achieve success across the middle income trap? On this issue, the need to combine theory and practice to make judgments in line with the law of development.
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Middle-income trap risks remain
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Middle income trap is the concept of the 2006 World Bank "East Asia Economic Development Report" submitted. The report by the country's economy after World War II some of retrospective observation, found in most countries after entering middle-income per capita of $ GDP30005000 stage,dior occhiali da sole, since the possession of resources is unreasonable, unfair income distribution, slow technological progress, focus on the outbreak of social conflicts and other reasons, resulting in long-term economic and social development to a standstill, only a few countries such as Japan, Korea and other exceptions. Summary This phenomenon is a universal, it will average around $ GDP5000 economic development stage, known as the relative stagnation of the middle-income trap.
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According to the World Bank standards, China's per capita GDP in 2008 to about $ 3300 to enter the ranks of middle-income countries; in 2011 to about $ 5400, easy to enter the development phase of stagnation. However, China's economy is not stagnant per capita GDP of about US $ 6100 in 2012,louboutin pigalle prix boutique, now stands at approximately $ 7800, stepped into the middle and high income threshold. However,new balance 1300, to see that this is not a high level of high income. At present, the per capita GDP in developed economies generally reached forty or fifty thousand dollars, the world's per capita GDP has more than ten thousand dollars. Of course, many low-income countries are averaged. The distance of the upper middle income per capita of $ GDP11000 still lags far behind, so that the middle-income trap risks remain. Success beyond this trap is a big test for our Thirteen Five period of development, is building a moderately prosperous society must pass a pass.
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Deceleration stall is not over the basic strategy of the middle-income trap
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China's economic development has entered a new normal, law deceleration is desirable phenomenon. This reduction of both the direct cause, there are deep-seated reasons.
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The direct cause of the need to promote economic growth analysis from the troika. 2011 to 2013, consumption and export of our economic growth rate continued to decline, especially by the world economic downturn after the global financial crisis, the export contribution rate even dropped to negative,?jackor p? n?tet, the contribution rate is only increasing investment . 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 the situation has improved, consumption, export growth and the contribution rate has increased, but investment alone big situation has not fundamentally changed. Coupled with the law of diminishing marginal benefit of investment play a role, the role of investment-led economic growth continued to decline, resulting in downward pressure on the economy continue to grow.
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The main deep-seated reasons are as follows: First, the transformation of the mode of economic development lags behind. Mainly rely on investment-led economic growth, investment mainly for Rail-based, resulting in steel, crude steel, cement and other over the past 30 years to achieve the high-speed growth of twenty or thirty times, extensive epitaxial expanded reproduction resulting in enhanced development is not sustainable. Second, the economic structural imbalances. Heroes in GDP and investment-driven economic growth, most likely to lead projects, investments battle, repeated introduction, redundant construction, structural imbalance, excess capacity resulting in economic decline. Third, the demographic dividend attenuation labor costs. Since reform and opening, the new GDP is approximately 1/41/3 new labor to create, thanks to changes in population age structure demographic dividend golden age provided. In 2010, the 1564-year-old working-age population accounted for 74.5% of peak dependency ratio fell to the lowest value of 34.2%. But the opposite trend after crossing the inflection point, the proportion of working-age population decreased dependency ratio rises. In this context, economic growth will naturally decrease. Fourth resource bottleneck shortage tightened ecological environment approaching the limit. A direct consequence of the extensive development mode, consume a lot of natural resources, scarcity intensified rapidly increasing dependence on foreign energy resources, ecological carrying capacity overwhelmed.
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Under the new normal understanding of the inevitability of the economic slowdown, in order to comply with the laws and control, seek appropriate pace. If 2014 GDP636463 billion population of 1.36782 billion yuan against the US dollar 6.1224 in the middle of the base period, according to the average annual GDP growth of 7.0%, 5.5% and 4.0% of high, medium and low three scenarios predict that by 2020, 2025 China's per capita GDP are: high program of $ 10834 and $ 14987, in the scheme of $ 9954 and $ 12,831, low-dollar program 9135 and $ 10961. The overall judgment is that as long as the future economic fluctuation does not occur, our country can cross the middle-income trap, but with different programs across the greater the difference in time: according to high program, thirteen end of the period to five basic spans, the 2022 program , low to the end of the program or fifteen times before being cross.
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Economic growth and employment are closely related, from a certain sense, to maintain growth, steady growth is to protect employment, stable employment. Statistics show that in recent years, GDP growth of 1 percentage point can be driven more than 1.3 million jobs, the registered urban unemployment rate may drop 0.5 percentage points. 2014 registered urban unemployment rate was 4.09 percent in 2015 to within 4.5%, the GDP growth rate may have a lower percentage of space. If the unemployment rate is 5.0% as the upper limit, the GDP growth in the presence of room down 2 percentage points, simply maintained at 5.4%. Below the warning line, the unemployment rate rose more than 5.0%, GDP growth rate down to 5.4% or less, the economy and social stability for greater impact, should be avoided.
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Deceleration not stall,nike tn requin femme, under the new normal economic development should appeal. Tolerance deceleration, as described above,?chaussures louboutin, as long as economic growth remains above 5.4 percent, that is, to maintain growth in the program, to achieve the goals is not a problem; intolerance stall because of certain economic growth in addition to insurance employment across middle-income trap and necessary, or transfer mode, adjust structure, improve people's requirement. Of course,louis vuitton lunette de vue, the transfer mode, adjust structure,sac à main longchamp, improve people need high economic growth down, as required when turning car braked; however, if the deceleration into the stall, transfer mode, adjust structure, improve people's livelihood will be lose the foundation and motivation, as the aircraft stall will lead to the crash. Since the international financial crisis in 2008, the developed economies collective stall, still unable to bail out; long-term Asia, Latin America, economic stagnation in many developing countries, struggling in the middle-income trap, are stalling economy consequences. Without deceleration stall tolerate intolerance towards high program, hold the program, the new economy is the norm across the middle income trap the essence and fundamental principle.
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Speed is the key to change benefits across middle-income trap
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Social expanded reproduction increased labor and improve labor productivity in two ways. At the beginning of reform and opening up, changes in the age structure of the population coincided with the beginning of the golden age, population and significant comparative advantage in labor, economic development naturally took to increase the amount of labor-based track. Reform and opening up the release of the vitality of social capital, the liberation of the productive forces, coupled with the expansion of investment in virtually unlimited supply of labor achievements of 30 years of sustained economic growth, creating nearly 10 percent of ultra-high-speed growth. However, the accumulated contradictions and problems such as ultra-high speed in the achievement of economic growth,pigalle louboutin, but also to make development,moncler giacche, economic structure, resources and environment, income distribution and other aspects.
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Speed and efficiency asymmetry, reflecting the current economic development in the major contradictions and problems. Extensive mode of economic development, heavy investment in light output, the number of heavy,nike blazer, light weight, highlights the economic efficiency is not high; economic structural imbalances, duplication, repetitive production, excess capacity, serious impact on economic efficiency, even the economy benefit is negative; setting up shops regardless of cost, construction and environmental resources highlights the bottleneck,louboutin pas cher, resulting in a significant decline in the marginal efficiency of investment and ecological benefits; the widening income gap serious damage to social equity. These problems have to time must be solved.
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Problems with the means to solve the problem is always the attendant. Since the speed and efficiency by the speed asymmetric preferences into the sky, then the problem will begin to remove the preferences from the speed at the expense of a little speed for effectively improve efficiency. It should be said that the central early attention to efficiency issues. Early 1980s raised agricultural output by the year 2000 quadruple crown in front of it there is constantly under the premise of improving economic efficiency. Unfortunately, this premise is often ignored or forgotten, they talk about double talk about efficiency, speed and efficiency so that this asymmetry is growing. Fifth Plenary Session of the party's eighteen again emphasized to improve the quality and efficiency as the center, especially in the development of innovative ideas put forward five development, has a strong practical relevance, it is across the middle income trap an important weapon.
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Of course,louboutin paris, the benefits offered to the speed of change, not a speed as low as possible,rayban occhiali da vista, but do not speed,cinture louis vuitton, but the speed to meet the objective reality, not in spite of the speed benefits. Development is the last word, development is the natural development of a certain speed. High program presented earlier to economic growth in the program is appropriate and can be reached across middle-income trap speed. Use by the high-speed growth in the vacated space for the current economic operation of the outstanding contradictions and problems, and promote economic reform designed to improve and accelerate the transformation of economic development, the progressive realization of the low-input,scarpe hogan uomo, high output and low consumption high efficiency transformation; economic restructuring, completed to a modern industrial structure,louboutin prix, modern economic and technological restructuring; accelerated by a factor-driven to innovation-driven change, improve the quality and efficiency of development; adhere to resource conservation, environmental protection a basic national policy to accelerate improvements in the ecological environment effectiveness of the reform, will be able to gradually resolve the contradiction speed and efficiency asymmetrical success across the middle-income trap. Need to mention that, in the working-age population over the supply of the Lewis turning point, investment plus unlimited supply of labor after the end of the development model to improve the population quality, achieved by the transition into the demographic dividend bonus to personnel in a prominent position, is to improve labor productivity and economic efficiency key. Take the road of development in order to improve labor productivity was dominant,louboutin france, it is to achieve balanced economic growth and efficiency gains across the rational choice of the middle-income trap.
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(The author is CASS member)
Phoenix Choi know (Micro Signal: icaizhidao) China's most authoritative financial reviews, business news every day, hot spicy rhinoceros reviews!
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