parajumpers kodiak Then talk about the short-term policy

Ha Jiming: next seven years, China's average GDP growth rate should be 5%
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Vice-Chairman of Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management China, said Ha Jiming, economic growth in the second half is likely to face a big challenge. Short-term to stabilize growth, requires a certain policy stimulus, but also need to be supplemented reform, because the sensitivity of the local government response to macroeconomic policy variables somewhat passive. The reform, first, to find a new economic growth point, including the household registration system reform, including the realization of human urbanization; the second is to improve the quality and efficiency of growth in the existing economic growth, so that the community can flow to productive resources through the signal or areas with the highest ownership enterprises, namely state-owned enterprises.
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Ha Jiming noted that China's stock market in June before rising, the role of government is relatively large, including the media push. It thinks, may be to create a new financing channels, as other traditional financing channels, such as credit gets narrower,hogan rebel, the shadow banking,occhiali da sole outlet, land finance, road, so directed at the stock market excited about. But whether Chinese stock market can assume the role of financing channels, Ha Jiming reservations.
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He also said that this year,escarpin louboutin pas cher, and other IMF announced that it will include the yuan SDR later, China will further ease monetary policy,escarpins louboutin, including interest rates RRR.
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Ha Jiming said that if the current government decided in 2022 before the end of his term, the debt ratio down to 40%, and 40% is in fact a relatively high level, tentatively assumed that 40% of our simulation results show that, in the future among seven years, the average GDP growth rate should be 5 percent.
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Speech by more exciting:
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I first declare that I am talking about today is mainly my personal view. You see a very heavy question mark, China: increased risk of a hard landing? I'm more of a question is asked so, I have no definite answer. But I think at least in the short term, China's economic hard landing is unlikely in the long run, we are going to be more emphasis on certain factors, some risks are accumulating, otherwise perhaps at some point in the future will focus on the outbreak.
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I am talking about today is divided into four areas, the first is the short-term economic situation and policy, second to talk about the stock market and currency, and the third is a short-term policy outlook, and finally talk about the long-term growth prospects.
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First, growth in the second half of this year is still facing great challenges because official data in the first half of the growth is 7% in the first quarter and second quarter were 7%, and the annual target of exactly the same, but if you look carefully, you may a considerable part of the growth of prosperity from the stock market, the stock market boom produced a stamp duty, transaction costs, two financial rise. The stock market boom brought GDP growth reached 0.6 percent in the second quarter to further expand to 1.6 percentage points, that is to say 7% minus 1.6%, the real economy will grow by about 5%. The stock market boom in the second half to reduce the economic drivers of the two financial dropped significantly, so the second half of the economic growth is likely to face a big challenge.
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In addition, the relationship between GDP7% of data and other economic indicators between and comparison of the data in the history of the case, in the first half of this year there has been a lot of mutation,occhiali da sole adidas, for example, over the past generation and economic growth is about the same, but the first half is negative, economic growth was 7%, as well as railway investment growth rate is two-thirds of GDP, but in the first half of this year decreased by 9%, the original state tax revenue growth rate is 2 times GDP, now slower than GDP, increase. There are original industrial added value growth rate is faster than the GDP, but the first half of this year is slower than GDP.
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We can also see the GDP deflator in the first quarter is -0.2, 0.1 in the second quarter turned into a real GDP is nominal GDP by subtracting the inflation data is not very low nominal GDP in the first quarter, a minus negative things, real GDP reached 7%, there is no way to be confirmed. By all accounts, GDP data is worthy of further study.
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In addition, from short-term indicators of economic growth, the decline in investment growth, particularly in manufacturing and real estate,police discografia, real estate investment growth is now down to 1%, the next is likely to negative growth, the last real estate growth is 20% or even 30 %,carrera occhiali da sole, the export growth is now negative. The growth rate of retail sales are also in decline,woolrich parka donna, although still above 10%, but then with the decline of the GDP growth, as well as the stock market fell, both on income and wealth effects on consumption growth will have some challenges .
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Some people say that the next real estate investment is not accelerated, I think the possibility of accelerating investment in real estate is relatively small, although real estate sales increased in the first half, but the inventory is large,louboutin femme prix, nationwide sales area in the construction area is five times from 1998 housing reform is now an average of 3.4 times, it is now five times, that is to say, although the developers see sales go up, but only digest its inventory, it is not the clout to further efforts to develop additional investment.
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In addition, I want to say that the stimulus in the short term to stabilize the growth of certain stimulus is necessary, but should be complemented by reform, if the stimulus is anesthetic, then reform is surgery, you can not light anesthetic without surgery. Why have so relaxed monetary policy, but is still a further weakening of economic activity, because China has a lot of economic activity is the need to promote local government, the local government for the past response of macroeconomic policy variables is very sensitive, and now this sensitivity somewhat obtuse oriented, although we played a lot of anesthetic, but still not much effect.
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Therefore, in this case, will promote the reform of an impact, because the anesthetic effect is not good, of course, in the past anesthetic effect is good, the operation did not move, now anesthetic ineffective, surgery more difficult. Two years ago, the Third Plenary Session of the introduction of a lot of meaningful reform, more than 300, some of the more important that we put in here to do a comb, found in some areas progress is made relatively large, such as the fight against corruption . But there are many areas where progress is slow, or step back two steps forward.
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I think in the final analysis is twofold reform policy, is to find a new economic growth point,nike air max 90 femme, the other is to improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth in the existing growth. Looking for a new economic growth point of fact there is a measure, that is, the realization of human urbanization is very important, including the reform of the household registration system, and even land reform, social welfare reform, but we see that these areas are now relatively slow pace of reform. As for improving the efficiency of growth, the most important thing is to get social resources can flow through the signal to the most productive areas or ownership enterprises, state-owned enterprise reform is very important.
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SOE reform recently a programmatic document, we feel that there is a positive content, for example, allow the Board to decide the use of personnel, some areas open to private enterprises, and to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises through market-oriented means, including the stock market. Of course, there are also some of the content, the future implementation of the results may have some uncertainty, strengthen the party leadership over the state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises and if the interests of the party's long-term guidance is certainly the same,hogan outlet, but the short term is not some place not entirely consistent this time enterprises play a decisive role is still the party's leadership plays a decisive role, these uncertainties have yet to be further observation.
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Moreover With the stock market in the long run there is a role, but the stock market what it is today, with the stock market it is difficult to truly advance. Another is to limit the pay system, in general, if the pay system more rigid, often lead to brain drain, brain drain for the future long-term development of the enterprise may bring some negative impact. There are not to engage in privatization, state-owned enterprise reform is an important element to engage in privatization, if you just keep the state-owned enterprises bigger and stronger to do good, there may be bigger, stronger and better not be.
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Then talk about the stock market and exchange rates. China's stock market in June before rising, the government behind the role is relatively large, including the media to promote, in fact, the real economy is down significantly,converse femme, possibly because they want to create a new financing channels, because the other traditional financing channels,cappelli 47brand, such as credit, shadow banking, land finance, the road is getting narrower and narrower, directed at the so excited about the stock market, but China's stock market can not be excited into a Manniu, or is dead cattle, or is mad cow, so you boost it is a mad cow, mad finally fixed, it becomes dead cattle, so now we see the earnings in June and they had improved, such as the GEM price-earnings ratio was 15.5 times, is now down to 65 times, it is still relatively high, such as price-earnings ratio in developed countries is now basically the United States and Europe in the 15-20 times.
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Also Chinese stock market in the end is not a substitute for other sources can play a role in financing, I think the effect is very small, in fact, the stock market had to get up, financing can be obtained is very limited, and we forget about the 2014 date, funds received from the stock market to add up to almost 1 trillion, but later you spend money to save the city more than 1 trillion, came to take the money as much as the money to pay later.
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From the Chinese point of view of our financing structure,cappelli polo, financing equity financing accounted for only 4.8%. You want 1 trillion is what the concept of bank loans a month can be more than one trillion, the stock market more than 20 months will 1 trillion. Also after the stock market down, is not the real economy would be devastated, I think the impact is not great, because people from China (50.45, 0.00, 0.00%) of the wealth structure, 26% of bank deposits, equities and direct indirect add up to 14%, but the combined direct and indirect US stock market is 40%, so a lot of American influence, the impact on China is not great, why the decline in the stock market a little while we must rescue it, then go up how is up, if the upswing, the government bears some responsibility, it will certainly fall when anxious. But the facts show that the impact of the wealth effect down if not great.
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RMB exchange rate, in fact, a period of time is very strong, such as from last fall, when the official exchange rate and the market rate is the same, but then the market exchange rate depreciation, but the official exchange rate is relatively stable, did not follow the market exchange rate to change I believe also want to create an impression outside the RMB is relatively stable, the yuan join the SDR, this makes sense.
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But why then to August 11, suddenly devalued by 2% a day purpose is to join the SDR, because when August 3, the IMF has a report warning Chinese official exchange rate and market exchange rates out of line 2%, the two hope to maintain a consistent exchange rate, so we immediately depreciate 8 days 2%, to reach this unity. So I think not to devalue before and after the devaluation, the goal is one, to join the yuan SDR, in order to realize the internationalization of the RMB.
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But from the current situation, it should be said after the devaluation of the exchange rate caused by the market turmoil, the Chinese government adopted a series of measures, including economic instruments and non-economic means, or administrative means, short-term exchange rate stabilization. But long term, the yuan devaluation is likely to continue. Because a country's exchange rate in the long term may not be the government's will, but in the law of the market to decide. There are two ways we can look at, is a purchasing power of the Chinese yuan is now gradually declining, China has a lot of things a lot more expensive than abroad, we are here to do a McDonalds [microblogging] Big Mac index,woolrich bambino, given China's per capita GDP, China Big Mac index is higher than the global average, indicating that the purchasing power of the Chinese point of view, the yuan does not have the basis for long-term appreciation. In addition, from unit labor costs, the Chinese unit labor costs in recent years increased significantly, 20 years ago, many countries are our times, and now we are 15 times those countries, so that in the long run, China's trade surplus is to reduce , and even become deficit. By that time,louboutin chaussures, the RMB devaluation might face pressure.
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Then talk about the short-term policy, and so this year's International Monetary Fund for the Chinese yuan is not a SDR can be added after the final decision, China will further relax monetary policy, including interest rates RRR, more exchange rate to the market, I I believe there will be downward pressure on the exchange rate. The money generated by the devaluation to ease monetary policy, totally superior to artificial currency devaluation instantaneously, the moment is actually putting the cart before the devaluation, exchange rate depreciation in other countries, when asset prices are rising, Chinese asset prices are falling, because produced greater devaluation expectations, so that the people's Bank [microblogging] RMB had to tighten liquidity in the market, and inhibit asset prices. The correct approach should be to cut interest rates drop quasi relax monetary policy, quantitative easing in other countries, and finally to devalue, and China needs to cut interest rates. China now is very high debt ratio in many industries, but is facing deflation, interest rates paid this is also a lot of pressure, so the devaluation beneficial.
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Then talk about the long-term problems, the Chinese economy can grow more quickly in the end, if we fall into the toolbox of things poured forth, and next year it rose 8% are possible, but this is not a scientific growth. Chinese economy can grow much, risk and growth must be generated in the process together to observe, first of all we are here to see the Chinese marginal product of capital in recent years is declining, the debt ratio is to rise faster than investment because the investment needs money, but some debt is not only used to generate investment. This will make more low efficiency of our investment, China's problem is that the high rate of investment, we look at the investment-GDP ratio last year was 46%, the Great Leap Forward in 1958, when only 42.8%, the highest year in Japan when it is only 40%, so 46% is a very high proportion of odd, you need to come down.
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We made two simulation analysis, if the current government decided in 2022 before the end of his term, the debt ratio down to 40%, and 40% is in fact a relatively high level, tentatively assumed that 40% of our simulation results show that, among the next seven years, the average GDP growth rate should be 5 percent. In this case, economic growth is likely to slow, perhaps not be able to achieve the so-called two double, but another kind of situation, if I simply wanted to achieve two double, is not it possible? I think it's theoretically possible, so-called rebalancing, investment rate from 46% to 40% do not make it happen in 2022, but spend five years, so that economic growth in the next 12 years in the middle can mean 5.8% holding in the next five years up to about 6% faster,louboutin paris pas cher, so you can achieve two double, but this situation have a cost, in the first case, China's debt ratio is now 250% GDP, and to 2019 will reach 288%, then will be significantly decreased, which is a relatively stable soft landing scenario. Another scenario, deferred rebalancing, in order to maintain a high growth rate of short-term,moncler outlet milano, so our debt rate may be close to 400% to the meeting, this situation could lead to greater risk, because the Chinese savings rate will decline in the future after the arrival of an aging household savings rate, poor corporate profits, corporate savings rate also fell, relatively tight financial situation of the government, the government's savings rate has decreased, so when the savings rate, debt ratio rise, someday you hardly debt maturing like this constantly renewed, then the systemic risk of financial exposure, there will be a hard landing for the economy.
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(Source: First, chief economist at Fudan Forum, finishing from Lujiazui Finance Network)
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