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China set up a "special debt management agency Manpower" mystery
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Author: Economic Observer senior reporter Zhang Xiangdong Source: Steel home
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June 15, the State Council Information Office briefing, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the country's financial and development laboratory director Li Yang said the central consensus has been formed to co-ordinate the management of the debt problem, the future will also set up a special institutions.
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A ripple. So, Li Yang mouth that China will set up a special agency Manpower debt management problems, what is the mechanism of it?
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First, the signal Li Yang
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In this morning's State Council Information Office briefing, Li Yang's words is this:
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About Manpower issues (Note: refers to the overall debt), as far as I know there is no formation of a co-ordination mechanism, but efforts in this direction. We think tank as often as some sectors of the CPC Central Committee, some departments of the State Council to discuss issues, and gradually formed a consensus needs to plan. Government debt can only say that the Ministry of Finance, as well as some of the central rate of the debt it may take into account, debt financing platform may take into account, it bugger debts majority of enterprises, China's line 3 will have no control over it. Line 3 will be impossible to fully grasp the issue of China's financial sector, it must be unified. Now it has formed a consensus, there is no formation of an arrangement, but I believe there may be such an arrangement.
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Li Yang's words convey two information:
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1; Chinese debt problem, as it involves the government, businesses, residents, and many even with the pattern of management functions of government departments involved in at least financial, development and reform, line 3 will be other financial sectors, decentralized management, there is no integrated management.
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2; Li Yang often on a number of departments of the CPC Central Committee, some departments of the State Council to discuss issues related to feelings, it will co-ordinate debt management advice, has formed a broad consensus in the decision-making aspect, and as a direction in the effort.
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Therefore, the organization attracted a lot of speculation that China will set up a special integrated management of debt problems, Li Yang is a judgment based on the actual need to exchange experience with their own high-level Chinese and debt management, drawn, and sounds, the body established the probability should be higher. However,hogan lovells, the specific timing also appears unclear.
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Another is the need to add background about Li Yang. Li Yang is a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences academician, researcher and doctoral students. CASS former party members, Vice President and Director of the Institute of Finance, People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee. Long-term money, banking, financial markets, taxation and other issues.
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From May 2015, Li Yang no longer serve as vice president of CASS duties. Thereafter, as the National Academy of Social Sciences, chairman of the Finance and Development Laboratory, which specializes in financial and development issues. June 15 morning, Li Yang attended the news briefing when the identity of the State Council is the national financial and development laboratory director, said Li Yang, today I an independent think tank in charge of the national identity of the person with you to discuss the issue.
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Li Yang said history, coupled with his statement of the case is the State Council Information Office, the agency specialized integrated management of the debt problem and therefore China will lead to the establishment of the attention is not surprising.
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He said here, there is a need to remind the background. Since 2016, the Chinese economy continues to accept external challenges, almost a pincer attack, I got hit. Domestically, although the overall economic growth and stability, but investment growth continue to decline, industry and regional differentiation pains become more evident, a sense of China's economic transformation to bring the body has been torn fingertip pain as. The rate of non-performing bank loans, corporate debt default case has its own run trend. This is really the moment to steady growth policy, to promote the reform to bring a lot more difficult. Internationally, the trade investigation cases encountered in China rise, Europe still refuses to recognize China's market economy status, A-share three times refused MSCI, capital account liberalization is facing unprecedented pressure, the incessant singing empty, Hangzhou G20 summit, there are many differences in advance Mifeng .
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Li Yang is in this context, the debut of the State Council Information Office briefing. State Council Information Office this briefing,nike air jordan, China can be understood as a response to a variety of questions and pessimistic voices, and there are indications that Li Yang's debut is just the beginning.
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Li Yang at the State Council Information Office briefing on June 15 after the debt crisis, China 's comeback, June 16 issue of "People's Daily" published an article entitled "Let the world understand China's economic development new normal" the author is vice president of the Academy of Social Sciences, academician Cai. The article said that, let the world understand China's economic development a new norm, help to clarify the Chinese economic pessimism, to maximize the elimination of external interference.
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Cai in the article concludes that the part of foreign individuals and organizations to become the initiator of China's economic pessimism, endorser or believer, for three reasons. One is ignorance of the Chinese economy; the other is to take China to benefit from stimulating policy; third is short the Chinese economy.
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After the release mechanism message China will set up a special integrated management of debt problems, as well as to respond to Li Yang and Cai Fang has, and who will follow-up on stage? How to counter China 's sing the air? It remains to be seen.
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However, the debt crisis on the good, both from within or, short of China's attempt worth mentioning,nike air max 90 pas cher, the best comeback ever through reform and institutional innovation to promote China's economic structural adjustment to achieve the capacity, etc. as soon as possible, and against the pains of transition test.
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Second, the overall debt management agency is what mechanism?
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To talk about the debt problem specialized integrated management mechanism will be established, the first look at the form of debt and debt management situation China currently.
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Chinese debt problem is very complex. Far debt theme, it can be roughly divided into government debt, corporate debt (non-financial corporate sector debt), banks and other financial institutions, resident debt. This debt is one of the most outside attention the first two categories, namely government debt and corporate debt.
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Where government debt is divided into central and local government debt, government debt, central government debt management and relatively clear, and local debt, since a large number of previously local financing platform for the company's existence and mode of operation, regardless of size or lead management are more complex .
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From 2011 to 2014, China has carried out at least twice a massive government debt and thoroughly cleaned. Since then the management of Government debt has gradually transparent and standardized, the current Chinese government debt have all been included in the central budget management,cappelli nike, is under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance. However, due to historical issues, part of the then local government debt financing platform for the company formed in accordance with corporate bonds is still the name of the NDRC and the CBRC owned by management.
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Corporate debt (non-financial corporate sector debt), due to the variety, borrowing in different forms,louboutin homme, different claims directly subject to its regulatory departments involved in cross-regulatory line 3 will be other departments. In addition, the corporate debt in corporate bonds, trusts and other financial products, direct bank loans, because it is market behavior, so the government sector, more regulation rather than management. This is the biggest difference between government debt.
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When talking about China Li Yang agency will set up a special integrated management of the debt problem, which is based on the premise of the overall national debt. Li Yang briefing at the State Council Information Office, to devote the two "Chinese national balance sheet" (2013 and 2015 respectively Edition version),hogan rebel, the country's balance sheet refers to the national debt.
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Simple to understand, Li Yang mentioned debt, generally refers to government debt, corporate debt (non-financial corporate sector debt), banks and other financial institutions, the sum of resident debt. The overall management of the debt problem specifically China will set up a specific agency to co-ordinate the management of the debt, meaning the whole country from the government to the enterprise and then residents liabilities.
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In other words, specifically the integrated management of the debt problem of the establishment of the future organization, whose purpose is to allow the operation of government debt, corporate debt (non-financial corporate sector debt), banks and other financial institutions, resident debt obligations unit capable of assets and liabilities in the national platter, the overall balance, logically consistent, healthy and reasonable. Therefore, this body is the macro management of debt, rather than specific microscopic debt, it will be the daily work of more various types of debt summary; for development and reform, finance,moncler uomo, and so on line 3 will be little debt management department caliber unified integration; and again on the basis of the country's overall balance of the overall monitoring and macroscopic.
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Difficult to meet, this specialized integrated management of the debt problem will be at least the equivalent of a standard mechanism ministerial coordination mechanism in order to achieve the highest political level reporting directly to both, but also inter-ministerial coordination and regulation of the specific features of debt management .
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Third, why the need for a co-ordinated management agency debt?
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Similar manage such a reference country's overall debt, the first to be formally proposed in the central-eighth session of the Third Plenary Session, "the CPC Central Committee decision on deepening reform of the overall number of major issues" Eighteen adopted by the Third Plenary Session made it clear, accelerate the establishment of a unified national economic accounting system, the preparation of national and local balance sheet.
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National balance sheet, in fact, is the family of a country's books. It is a comprehensive reflection of the national total asset structure, the total amount of debt,nike free run, debt structure and the relationship between assets and liabilities of the assets, but also which reflect the major domestic economic agents (non-financial corporations, financial institutions, governments, residents, etc.) assets and liabilities situation. It is for the country to find out the real situation and macro management are very important.
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Many people still remember two years ago,jordan 6 retro, Iceland and Greece's national bankruptcy. This is because the government does not solve the debt problems of economic development and, finally led the country insolvent, the brink of bankruptcy. Simple to understand, is a realization of such assets can all countries, have been enough to pay his debts, only bankruptcy liquidation or bankruptcy. The consequences both for those in power, for enterprises, banks, or for ordinary people is very scary.
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Prior to the rapid development of Chinese economy and its development, to a certain extent, led to government and corporate debt are increasing, which is China's present and future is a big risk. In particular, the last two or three years, as China's economy has entered a new normal, slowing economic growth, the debt problem is further amplified.
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Thus, the overall management of the debt problem specialized agency of China will set up a fact, Mr. Chinese national balance sheet similar to the accountant. A bottom line goal of the management accountant is to control the various national debt total size to avoid insolvency situation.
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Inter last couple of years, debt risk, often become some of the key international financial institutions and rating structure mouthing Chinese economy and publication of pessimism. In March this year, Moody's and Standard & Poor's succession to China's sovereign credit rating and many state-owned enterprises credit rating cut to negative. The reason is that, out of Chinese government debt, foreign exchange reserves decline and reform prospects uncertain concerns.
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The problem is that China is now exactly how far away from the debt crisis?
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According to the analysis team, Li Yang, the end of 2014 China's total sovereign assets 227.3 trillion, 124 trillion of sovereign debt, the net asset value 103.3 trillion. This is the Chinese team of Li Yang balance regiment briefing prepared. According to Li Yang's estimated net asset value, the less liquid assets such as land nearly one trillion, if it is deducted, the net assets of Chinese sovereignty last narrow diameter 28.5 trillion.
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That is to say, according to Li Yang calculated that 28.5 trillion, China is currently ready to come up immediately or you can exchange for ready cash to repay debt of highly liquid assets. It should be noted that this number does not correspond to the total liabilities of 124 trillion, but the corresponding non-performing assets, or bad debt. Both correspond to the current solvency is China, which is a key indicator to measure whether the debt crisis of China.
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For example, how much money you owe the bank a corresponding increase in the value of total assets in the hands of your assets and the future, but now you decide whether or not bankruptcy is in addition to your assets can not be realized, that can be realized immediately pay back the money how much part of asset size.
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What corresponds to the result? Li Yang said, 28500000000000 This is a very large number, this number after we had announced some analysts citing our international digital concluded that China be able to meet 1.5 times the big crisis.
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Li Yang also suggested that China is now in the end we accordingly estimate the number of non-performing assets. By this simple estimate, non-performing assets should be around 19 trillion.
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So Li Yang said, according to such an analysis can be quite sure that the possibility of China's debt crisis is a small probability event, does not occur. To be resolved in an orderly manner under the hand, even if some of the debt problem, we can have a significant negative impact on the national economy in the right conditions.
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Fourth, a special debt management agency Manpower what will be how to manage the national debt?
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Well, specifically the integrated management of the debt problem of how to manage the organization of different nature, different forms of various types of debt?
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It should be noted, China does not have large debt crisis, does not mean that the debt is no problem. June 15 at the State Council Information Office Li Yang out of the data, the Chinese debt risk is small, but the debt structure worrisome indeed indisputable fact.
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Li Yang June 15 released data show: By the end of 2015, China's total debt of 168.48 trillion yuan, total leverage of 249%. Structurally, the household sector debt ratio of around 40%, the financial sector debt was about 21%, the government debt ratio is about 40%, if taking into account some of the financing platform of debt and liabilities, into government debt through a discount total go, the government debt ratio will show a big rise,baskets nike, reaching 57%.
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Li Yang believes that the biggest problem is non-financial corporate sector debt,dior bracciali, the debt rate in China is 131% by 2015. If we add to the mix of debt financing platform (this portion of the government debt overlap), non-financial corporate sector debt rate as high as 156%.
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As mentioned above, the main Chinese debt on debt is concerned, can be roughly divided into government debt, corporate debt (non-financial corporate sector debt), banks and other financial institutions, resident debt. In the eyes of many officials and economists, China's debt problems and the biggest difference is that the United States and Europe, China's population is very low debt ratio, a high savings rate. Huge household savings plus,hogan donna 2014, size is still huge foreign exchange reserves, China seems to be to deal with high debt risk of ballast stone.
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But this is only theoretically simple arithmetic. In actual operation, the government, businesses, residents among the assets and liabilities, there is no necessary mutual relationship. Government debt is complicated, high corporate debt, as well as residents of low debt exposure is the risk of China's debt structure, which is currently facing China's most prominent contradictions debt is the most difficult to solve.
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Li Yang said that China's debt problems are concentrated in the corporate sector. Chinese enterprises in the corporate sector accounted for part of the relatively high proportion,adidas porsche design, 65% in state-owned enterprises. Therefore, Chinese enterprises to solve the debt problems of state-owned enterprises to solve the problem and close together. Because it is such a situation, but also because the state-owned enterprises,sito ufficiale moncler, state-owned banks, local governments, the central government is in fact a sovereign people, which is a unique approach to China on the disposal of non-performing assets generated, this approach does not in Western countries Yes, how could a government be a private company a helping hand in the parliament pass. But because China is my business, from another pocket money to make up its deficit, which is a re-allocation of assets under the sovereignty of public opinion, and for this reason the field is called the general government. General government including state-owned enterprises, state-owned financial institutions, local government,scarpe hogan, central government, and now China's main problem in general government debt, while the general government can be a fine line, which is very different from other countries and places.
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Li Yang concept of the general government, in fact, has been the Chinese special institutional issues that very thoroughly. However, even the general government to resolve the debt problem, also need means more in line with market principles to operate. Otherwise, the Government, state-owned enterprises, banks will fall into a situation of moral hazard. Indeed,woolrich donna, the international rating agencies and institutional investors pessimistic on China's economic and debt problems, a large part of it is due to some non-market, non-transparent operation of the policy concerns.
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Conversely, some of which are non-market operations, other domestic market players also cause some blow. For some time, sustained capital outflows and private investment fell sharply phenomenon has given China sounded the alarm: the institutional crowding out is taking place.
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In the case of the recent downward pressure on the economy, the solvency of enterprises face greater challenges. Liabilities arising from higher corporate debt risk has begun to expose. Since 2014,louboutin chaussures soldes, corporate debt risk in some areas and industry continues to erupt.
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A few people comparing data show that in 2014 China's GDP growth rate fell 0.3 percentage points more than in 2013, but the industrial enterprises above designated size main business income never fell 11.2% to 7.9%, down 4.2 percentage points, the main business the decline in revenue is 14 times the growth rate of GDP decline. In 2015 the main business income decreased to 0.8%, down 6.2 percentage points of GDP growth rate down 15 times.
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This means that Chinese companies underperformed revenue growth of GDP. The huge gap between the main income and the GDP growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, the government should arouse sufficient vigilance and attention. How to produce energy, how to reduce the debt burden on businesses, how to clear the debt chain between enterprises, how to deal with zombie companies, industries and enterprises on how the loan difficulties exit, you need into consideration and careful operation.
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Currently, about to resolve the debt, a consensus seems to be forming a government and academia is: according to the characteristics of China's debt, in particular the current time, the debt structure reset, and on this basis, to promote supply-side structural reforms. Simply put,hogan scarpe interactive donna, it is to give residents and government debt obligations plus appropriate lever, thereby to lower corporate leverage.
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This is China specialized debt management agencies should co-ordinate and manage to solve the problem. It is expected that this mechanism will be mainly through a variety of methods, so that various subjects governments, businesses, and residents and other financial institutions, in accordance with the future development of the economy, to achieve a reasonable balance scale dynamic equilibrium, so as to optimize the economic structure, steady economic development purpose.
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Li Yang at the State Council Information Office briefing June 15 that the issue is not simply a department, such as the financial sector, financial sector, Bank Chamber of Commerce, Development and Reform Commission, which is not able to solve a simple division, which is involved in comprehensive an economic phenomenon, we need a comprehensive, total solutions, the system needs together. Li Yang revealed that, Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund also gives the same advice.
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Seen in this light, China set up a special debt management agency co-ordination, not only in the decision-making has been gradually formed a consensus, but also the recommendations of international bodies.
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Li Yang said that China this problem (of debt), if in a different sub-sectors are likely to be very serious, and there is no way out. If you look at this whole country down, we do some reclamation work, this thing is not too difficult to solve. So now reduce debt, reduce non-performing assets problem, reform of state-owned enterprises, reform of financial institutions issue must take into consideration.
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Which is specialized debt management agency Manpower China's future would appear to do.
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