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IMF: emerging markets are facing two major challenges China's economic growth this year down to 7.4% | IMF | economic growth
[IMF believes that all major developed economies should remain accommodative monetary policy, while changing the pace of fiscal and structural adjustment to support recovery and long-term growth]
July 24, International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest issue of "World Economic Outlook" (WEO) Update report. IMF lowered this year's global growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points,adidas stan smith, down 3.4%, mainly due to the legacy of the weak (especially the US) to generate economic growth in the first quarter, as well as prospects for several emerging markets have become less optimistic.
Wherein, IMF expects China's economic growth was 7.4%, compared with the predicted value in April down 0.2 percentage points. In 2015,louboutin chaussures, although the economic outlook is still largely dependent on government targets, but with the economic transition to a more sustainable growth path, growth is expected to slow to 7.1%.
?Developed economies are still faced with high levels of public and private debt,louboutin soldes, hindering the economic recovery. While these negative factors are waning, but among countries still exhibit uneven recovery trend. Emerging market economic growth has slowed down compared to before the crisis, the biggest problem currently facing a potential structural problems must be taken structural reforms. At the same time, emerging markets must be prepared to deal with the impact of US monetary policy after the normalization brought. IMF chief economist Oliver & middot; Blanchard (Olivier Blanchard) pointed out at the opening ceremony of the conference WEO.
Emerging markets are facing two major challenges
The IMF expects growth in emerging markets and developing economies will decline in 2014 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% in 2015 will rise to 5.2%.
Among them, the biggest revised Russia,woolrich milano, IMF its 2014 economic growth rate from 1.3 to 0.2%, and the growth rate in 2015 from 2.3% down to 1%. Mainly due to the deterioration of Russia's geo-political tensions led to a sharp slowdown in economic activity, business confidence fell, and outflows of capital investment is expected to be in a weak state in a long time.
Emerging markets and other developing countries, India's economic growth has bottomed out, economic activity is expected to resume after the elections as business sentiment gradually rise to offset the adverse effects of the rainy season on the agricultural growth; tightening of financial conditions in Brazil and continued low business and consumer confidence inhibits investment and hinders the growth of consumption; weak construction industry in Mexico and the United States is expected to slow recovery in 2014 will lead to an annual growth rate lower than previously forecast.
Blanchard said that looking into the future, emerging and developing economies, the main challenge in two ways.
The first is structural reforms to rebalance the economy and enhance potential. The second is to adapt to the changing world environment. This change has begun. Increasing the recovery in developed economies means that export demand for them. Normalization of monetary policy in the United States before going to mean that some emerging markets in search of higher returns of capital will flow back to the developed economies, which in turn means tighter financial conditions and more difficult financial environment.
To address these challenges,christian louboutin pas cher, emerging market countries is an urgent need to implement structural reforms to increase growth potential or to make growth more sustainable. It should also be allowed to exchange rate changes with economic fundamentals and adjust, if necessary should also address inflationary pressures and policy credibility problems, which generally helps to establish monetary policy space.
China's economic growth this year down to 7.4%
The IMF expects global growth from the second quarter of 2014 began to rise, because some of the factors of weak first-quarter growth (such as the US stock adjustment) will only lead to a short term impact, and other factors will be relevant policies (including China implemented the policy) to some extent offset. Some advanced economies is expected to grow next year will be enhanced, so that 2015 growth forecast remained 4%.
WEO report also noted that the degree of slowing Chinese domestic demand than expected. This is because the authorities in efforts to control credit growth adjustment, and real estate activities. China this year adopted a limited and targeted policy measures to support economic activity,hamilton michael kors, including tax relief for SMEs to accelerate the financial and infrastructure spending and targeted lowered the reserve ratio.
IMF expects China's economic growth was 7.4%, compared with the predicted value in April down 0.2 percentage points. In 2015,scarpe hogan uomo, although the economic outlook is still largely dependent on government targets,louboutins, but with the economic transition to a more sustainable growth path,hogan donna, growth is expected to slow to 7.1%.
Blanchard said that housing investment has been slowing down in China, and it is expected to slow this trend will intensify. The government has adopted a series of priority areas for incentives to offset this, such as railway investment and construction of affordable housing. In recent months has increased the flow of credit,hogan online, while increasing infrastructure spending, and improving exports. China still faces major challenges is how to achieve more balanced growth to reduce investment and increase consumption.
Developed economies should remain accommodative monetary policy
WEO report notes that global growth was weaker than expected in the first half of this year, indicating that most economies will still need to increase the actual and potential growth as a priority. Even in the case where interest rates remain at very low levels,louboutin paris, the recovery constraints have eased,?basket jordan, the developed economies has not yet formed strong demand growth.
Thus,?adidas, IMF believes that all major developed economies should remain accommodative monetary policy,adidas adipure 11pro, while changing the pace of fiscal and structural adjustment to support recovery and long-term growth, and ultimately economies should gradually normalize monetary policy.
Serious backlog of inventory as well as the harsh winters common cause inhibition of demand in the first quarter US economic growth is far worse than anyone expected, but the IMF noted that growth in the US will rise and subside with temporary factors. However, due to the weak recovery in investment, which is expected to rise only partially offset the decline in the annual growth in the first quarter due to weakness. 2014 is now forecast at an annual rate of 1.7%, compared with the previous forecast revised down by 1.1 percentage points, while the economy is expected to increase in 2015 by 0.1 percentage points to 3%.
Blanchard pointed out: the speed of normalization of monetary policy is the main policy issues facing the United States now,adidas high top homme. Currently more appropriate plans later this year to exit quantitative easing (QE) policy and the first rate hike in the middle of next year. But time may raise interest rates because inflation and unemployment factors make adjustments.
Finally ushered in the euro zone from recession to recovery, turnaround, IMF expects economic growth in the eurozone in 2014 was 1.1% in 2015 to 1.5%, is expected to increase 0.1 percentage points higher than in April. But the growth performance of economies remains uneven, because the state remains split financial, public and private balance sheets impaired, as well as some economies,air max 95, high unemployment rate.
Although not much adjustment for the euro area economy is expected, but can not figure masks uneven among euro-zone countries, such as we raise expectations for Germany also cut France's expectations. Blanchard said.
To strengthen the recovery in the euro zone remains a need for both demand and supply are taking strong measures. European countries are facing problems of low unemployment and low inflation problem,louboutin bordeaux, therefore, policies to stimulate demand is still the top priority. Because space is tight fiscal and monetary policy must continue to support activities.
For negative interest rates and a series of measures implemented by the European Central Bank recently, Blanchard said: measures taken by the European Central Bank recently very popular, but the assessment of the effects, it is premature. If inflation remains low, you should consider taking other measures.
IMF noted the positive role abenomics (Abenomics) generated began to show strong domestic demand and investment will increase. Given the growth in Japan's first quarter performance was stronger than expected, IMF raised its 2014 economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage point to 1.6%. But in the long term, as Japan plans to withdraw fiscal stimulus, as well as the adverse effects of the consumption tax increase on demand,louboutin soldes 2015, Japan is expected in 2015 will slow down to 1.1%.
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