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Steady growth rate in the second half or breakthrough deficit fiscal policy will continue to force
26.1%, which was just released in June,peuterey uomo nuovo, the national fiscal expenditure year on year growth, this data than May's 24.6% growth rate accelerated by 1.5 percentage points, the highest since the new 23-month high. Prior to the January-April, only single-digit growth in fiscal expenditure.
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Data actually showed steady growth of fiscal spending is urgent force.
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Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping, "China Times" reporter said that with the onset of steady growth policy, the beginning of the second quarter of macroeconomic data has improved, economic growth began the steady rise, but due to fixed asset investment, consumption Although it is difficult to stabilize and exports are picking up or improve the economy downward pressure still exists.
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Therefore, he believes the proactive fiscal policy is possible and necessary continuing current efforts. The second half of the revenue pressure is still large,scarpe hogan, the deficit ratio of 2.1% at the beginning of the budget will affect the ability to break through the proactive fiscal policy space.
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Income pressure
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We are now even non-collection of dues, you say good situation in the industry. Shanxi Coke Industry Association Deputy Secretary-General Zhao Tu family over the phone depression, he can not feel the macro data show the economy has stabilized.
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Economic downward pressure, the upstream coal, steel and other raw materials industry bear the brunt, but in a tough economic situation, revenue situation is not optimistic nature.
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July 14, the Ministry of Finance released data show that in June, the national fiscal revenue 1.3461 trillion yuan, an increase of 108.4 billion yuan over the same month last year, an increase of 8.8%. Among them, the central fiscal revenue 547.7 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%; local financial revenue (this level) 798.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9%.
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Ministry of Finance said in June the central fiscal revenue continued low growth last month, mainly due to decline in VAT and increase export tax rebates and other factors.
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Yang Bin, senior analyst at Huatai macro accept the "China Times" reporter, he said that from the point of view June, revenue growth has picked up, but on the whole is still weak, the full year revenue is not optimistic. Budget revenue growth in the first half was 8%, real income is 8.8%, only slightly higher than the budget, but over the years, the revenue budgets are often given relatively conservative surplus is relatively common.
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Data show that from January to June total, the national fiscal revenue grew 8.8%. Among them, the central fiscal revenue 3.4327 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the budget increase (7%); local fiscal revenue (this level) 4.0311 trillion yuan,parajumpers, an increase of 11.1%.
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From a tax perspective, in June and the economic situation is closely related to the value-added tax, business tax,woolrich donna, enterprise income growth continued downturn trend, all below 8.8% of revenue growth. Wherein the VAT after deducting the camp changed to increase the transfer of revenues declined 4.5%.
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The main impact of local real estate tax revenue increase to buck the trend. Land tax, farmland occupation tax, urban land use tax growth rate of 23.7%, 35.6% and 35.3%.
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Lian Ping believes that local fiscal revenue growth accelerated,sac michael kors, land-related revenue growth mainly due. In the real estate market cooling in the background,cartier bracciali, on the one hand steady growth policy to force the transformation of shanty areas,alexander mcqueen occhiali da sole, urban infrastructure,parajumpers extra long jacka, railways and investment to promote the increased use of land-related taxes; on the other hand reflects the local governments rely on land finance models and ideas difficult to change.
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However, he also expected,louboutin mary jane, with the continued downturn in the real estate market,victoria beckham occhiali da sole, the second half of the revenue from land sales will slow down.
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And a central region finance department officials recently told the "China Times" reporter admitted that the real estate market place downward'll bring significant financial pressure, local construction project expenditures relies heavily on revenue from land sales and land financing.
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Treasury also said in June local level income growth is higher than the middle of the eastern, central than the west. According to the reporter, the biggest revenue pressure to belong to the western resource-based provinces.
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Data show that the first half of Inner Mongolia public budget revenue 94.1 billion yuan, but an increase of only 3.4%, of which non-tax revenue 32.7 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4%; tax revenue 61.3 billion yuan,sneakers louboutin pas cher, a slight negative growth. Shanxi case approximation, accumulated to May, Shanxi achieve public revenue 77.4 billion yuan, an increase of only 2.7%.
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Steady growth rate or breaking deficit
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Income pressure is great, the need for steady growth, fiscal spending is expected to maintain high growth.
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From a financial expenditure 5,6 two months, the Ministry of Finance in May issued "on the further strengthening of fiscal expenditure budget execution management," which sounded the horn fiscal steady growth.
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In May,peuterey uomo prezzi, the national fiscal expenditure 1.279 trillion yuan, the growth rate quickly pulled up to 24.6%. June spending up to 1.65 trillion,magasin louboutin paris pas cher, the growth rate rose to 26.1%, the highest since July 2012 the biggest year on year growth. Previously,adidas nitrocharge, from January to April total, the national fiscal expenditure growth of only 9.6%.
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This results in June the first time the monthly deficit revenue and expenditure during the year,louboutin homme, the month of expenditure over income 306.1 billion yuan.
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The industry generally believe that the second half,louboutin soldes, a number of major investment projects will continue to fall, the proactive fiscal policy is expected to continue to overweight, roads and other infrastructure construction of railways, shantytowns,moncler pas cher enfant, urban underground pipe network construction and other areas will be the focus of fiscal policy in force.
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And on July 16 the State Council executive meeting also signals strong steady growth came again, after hearing the State Council Premier Li Keqiang eight inspection teams had introduced policies and measures to the implementation of the inspection report stressed that this year's "Government Work Report" to determine the main objectives of economic and social development must ensure the completion of the task.
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Yang believes that the second half of the macro-control will maintain double-loose situation, but because of the orientation of the two quasi-drop, as well as loan ratio adjustment calculation, more money has been put quite in June, M2 growth exceeded targets. Central Bank data show that the end of June, broad money (M2) balance of 120.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7%, the growth rate hit a new year high.
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Second half of the fiscal policy is likely to be a continuation of the positive performance in June, but if you want to maintain the budget deficit ratio of 2.1, then the second half of the space of public expenditure would be limited. Yang said that he always thought that the deficit ratio of 2.1% and can not be considered particularly active fiscal policy.
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Lian Ping said that in order to ensure the steady implementation of growth policies, fiscal spending in the second half will continue to accelerate the progress of the majority of the month or maintained double-digit growth year on year expenditure.
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Reporter rough calculation,occhiali da sole celine, if the second half of fiscal revenue and expenditure to maintain the June monthly balance of payments 306.1 billion, and a total of more than six months over 1.8 trillion spending. This means that, in addition to spent January to June cumulative fiscal surplus (548.3 billion), 1.35 trillion budget deficit may be a breakthrough.
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Yang believes that if the deficit rate is not fixed, in order to increase fiscal spending, can also relax the central financial control of local land and even deregulation of local financing platform. But he expects the policy will not go in that direction. Otherwise, resolve excess capacity, control of local government debt risk will come to naught.
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In this regard, even the level that the second half of the proactive fiscal policy indeed may exceed 2.1% deficit ratio for steady growth seems necessary. And studies have reported that this year's budget deficit may end up in the rate of 2.1% -2.5%, such a level.
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However, Yang seems worrying to observe that since the 2012 discovery of economic performance, policies to stimulate the economy pulling effect is not particularly good, and have become increasingly weak, as long as we see a close policy, He flew economy go down.
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How to steady growth, to seek a better balance between structural adjustment to stimulate the economy in the life force, it is still placed in front of government decision-making levels of problem to be solved.
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