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Policy thinking subtle changes: from the supply side to the demand supply dual drive
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Source: Founder Securities, author: macro, principal analyst Guo Lei
There are indications that there are subtle changes in policy thinking, demand-driven policies have begun to enter the field of vision. Ton output from the main supply-side policies, began to change the balance between the supply side and the demand side. Real estate stimulus is a start, and then start the new urbanization is continuing,louboutin prix, but not the end.
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Press Start to start Weiyandayi said. February 23, Xinhua News Agency reported that General Secretary Xi Jinping important instructions made on two issues: First,moncler milano, the aging population, the study pointed out the need to strengthen top-level design always improve major policies and systems, timely and comprehensive response to population aging science; one town technology, learning always pointed out that the construction of new urbanization must stand on a new starting point, new progress. To pay more attention to improving household population urbanization rate, to strengthen top-level design, coordinate development of supporting reform, to encourage the country to local conditions, highlighting features, bold innovation, and actively guide social capital to participate in and promote new urbanization with Chinese characteristics the sustained and healthy development. Li Keqiang given instructions that urbanization is China's largest domestic development potential and kinetic energy lies.
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According to the total learning important speeches and instructions, important instructions of Premier Li Keqiang, Vice Premier of the State Council Zhang Gaoli further instructed to further promote the construction of new urbanization teleconference on. Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli indicates that there are several points: First, we must actively promote agricultural transfer of population citizenship; second is to speed up urban shantytowns and infrastructure construction, promote the construction of new cities, accelerating the development of small cities and small towns characteristics; Third is to give full play to the leading role of the new urbanization of the new rural construction, infrastructure and promote public services extended to rural areas; four is better, the money, the three aspects of housing reform, improve the land use of the mechanisms, innovative financing mechanisms, improve the urban housing system.
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Attention ........ Here are some points still worth our attention: first, urbanization seems to re-emerge as an important gesture. 2014,2015, even 2016 is not the focus of the work of urbanization, but the four major areas of mine (financing platform,chloé lunette de soleil, shadow banking, overcapacity, real estate bubble), by the end of 2014 Central Economic Work Conference have been proposed for urbanization history patience; second, the specifications of this urbanization session significantly higher,escarpins louboutin, it is interesting. Xi Jintao, Premier Li Keqiang important instructions and instructions earlier,gucci lunette de soleil, total learning even from the perspective of an aging population urbanization made sense bedding. Third, urbanization, infrastructure and domestic demand-start function to re-enter policy view. About urbanization, from the past emphasis on human urbanization,cinture ferragamo, he stressed the mountains and nostalgia, while emphasizing domestic power into kinetic energy and development, emphasizing infrastructure, new urban construction, the leading role of the new rural construction,occhiali da vista, and promote the foundation extension of infrastructure and public services.
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There are indications that there are subtle changes in policy thinking, demand-driven policies have begun to enter the field of vision. Real estate stimulus is a start, and then start the new urbanization is continuing, but not the end.
?
Therefore, we can easily understand,dior bracciali, a few days ago, that is, on February 19 meeting of China Economists 50 Forum, Zhou said, the supply side and the demand side should cooperate with each other. This formulation should be present and the central core of the guiding ideology of the same. So,scarpe hogan online, in early February the introduction of iron and steel,casquette jordan, coal production guidance to go significantly below pre-production target market expectations, basically soft knife. So, in January of credit and financial community so high on the half aware of the problem of high after the second half and did not receive. So, years later, Premier Li's speech, all departments under the State Council to be responsible for their current major economic indicators, you are in charge of this area, and what major indicators of a problem, the implementation of the policy of how kind, should be responsible! So So ......
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Subtraction weaker than expected, addition-than-expected, all point to one conclusion: ton output from the main supply-side policy, began to change the balance between the supply side and the demand side.
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Why this subtle change? Once again, we present our guess, exchange rate fluctuations at the beginning of the policy priorities to make some adjustments. RMB exchange rate volatility makes the policy level to realize that if expectations about the Chinese economy and RMB assets changes, the outflow of foreign exchange and asset bubble risks of systemic risk of China's economy will continue to rise,cappelli last kings, reform design will be disrupted . Therefore, policies must be stable economic growth is expected to turn the premise of maintaining stability and reform of local currency assets.
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The biggest problem facing the Chinese economy is still exports of 2012 to 2014, brought to the estate of the downward trend after peaking real estate investment and exports, re-activated periodically limited space, needs no engine can undertake. Therefore,collection louboutin, in any case do optimization and supply-side reform, into reality demand down to find a cushion or bypass a difficult choice policies, or have the demand, otherwise, the exchange rate risk will make the whole situation more complex.
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In this regard, we must also remember that the Prime Minister Keqiang period in the years after his speech: the Year of the Monkey opened, the global economy,gucci bracciali, especially the national stock markets fell sharply, a great deal of challenges and new uncertainties to the Chinese economy ,new balance outlet, once the economy really ....... slide appears reasonable range of signs, the shot will be central decisive shot.
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How long double drive will continue? The next important time window is traditionally held in late April, the Politburo meeting. According to the current state of the economy, the supply-side and demand-side dual drive policy is likely to continue to extend the idea at the meeting. If subsequent changes in certain economic triggers may appear to stabilize in the second quarter (bottom deflationary impact,nike air max bw femme, the impact of pre-financing heavy volume), and possible inflation rise (if oil prices rise than expected, or housing prices out of control),adidas varial trainers, the time window July will be the annual meeting of the Politburo.
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