- 最后登录
- 2017-3-22
- 在线时间
- 99 小时
- 威望
- 130
- 金币
- 130
- 注册时间
- 2016-11-14
- 阅读权限
- 50
- 主题
- 29
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 229
- 帖子
- 29
 
该用户从未签到
|
Behind the RMB slump: the central bank's stress test?
????????
The central bank's stress test?
?
Beijing reported this reporter Qian Qiu Jun
?
RMB against the US dollar fell, raising restlessness.
?
Onshore RMB against the US dollars in cash on January 26 fell 0.43% to 6.2556, extending last week's decline, marking the largest decline since December 2008. The euro against the yuan rose more than 7, it is the first time since 2001. The same day, onshore, offshore renminbi both sharply lower. Onshore RMB plunged more than 200 points, the lowest touched 6.2531,hogan prezzi, the highest since June last year lows. Offshore renminbi plunged more than 100 points.
?
Why the RMB exchange rate plummeted? Widely regarded as the eurozone QE blame. In the State Department's Policy routine briefing held after the State Council Information Office, central bank vice governor Mr. Pan said that the European version of QE or downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate will,louboutin femme, but the Chinese central bank will further improve the RMB exchange rate market.
?
This implies that the devaluation of the yuan after the completion of the short-term will continue to appreciation, volatility increased. An industry source declined to be named told the "China Times" reporter, this is the future trend of the RMB central bank's basic judgments. In January 27, the central bank increased the parity shot. January 28 median price appreciation of 82 basis points, its biggest one-day appreciation since December 8, 2014.
?
Expected mischief
?
Europe afternoon local time on January 22, the European Central Bank announced that from March to buy 60 billion euros of debt every month until September 2016 or the euro area inflation rate rose to 2%. Such a large QE floor plan,fendi occhiali da sole, will be more than a trillion euros which means that market,air max 90 pas cher, the dollar hundred points after the shock and then fell below 1.15 against the euro for the first time since 2003.
?
Mr. Pan admitted,louboutin soldes, the European version of QE impact on global capital to re-adjust the layout of the area in between, the new version of QE policies provided massive liquidity will undoubtedly spill over. The dollar's strength will drive the funds back to the US, the future of cross-border capital flows enhanced global uncertainty.
?
However, many currency traders opinion,louboutin bianca prix, the Greek election results undoubtedly direct fuse January 26 morning RMB spot exchange rate was close to the limit. The European Central Bank launched one trillion euros QE policy, more to fight deflation by means of the euro, the Greek election results may shake integrity of the euro area directly.
?
In fact, the RMB exchange rate plummeted due to a fully anticipated and a super expectations. The former refers to the possibility of increased US interest rates and European quantitative easing (QE) implementation; the latter refers to the Greek election results, may exacerbate the flow of funds from emerging markets in developed economies.
?
This will inevitably bring about a strong dollar and weak non-US currencies. Mr. Pan central bank vice governor, said the ECB's new version of QE quantitative easing policy of the United States plus the normalization trend will further promote the dollar's strength, which may be downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
?
The central bank in recent months has been tolerated devaluation, loose action now, including in Europe the world's major central banks could take the initiative to further promote China's central bank guided the yuan to weaken. Merchants Securities research director Xie Yaxuan macro frankly. So January 26 yuan against the dollar close to the lower limit position, China's central bank,louboutin occasion, no intervention, nor raised the yuan central parity, but in the January 23, January 26 two days down the yuan central parity.
?
Central parity change largely reflects the attitude of the Bank of the RMB exchange rate. Wang Han, chief macroeconomic analyst at Industrial Securities, told reporters that the past two days, the central bank changed since late November,ceinture ferragamo, the central parity revaluation practice guide rapid depreciation, which means the central bank intends to expand the yuan declines.
?
Another reality is that outside of the RMB exchange rate depreciation is expected to increase, driven more arbitrage, the exchange rate will make the territory following the weakening overseas. Round before the devaluation, betting unilateral appreciation of the RMB is almost no risk. Veteran forex market a long time, Hong Kong offshore renminbi (CNH) exchange rate compared to the mainland onshore Renminbi (CNY) to tens of basis points higher,nike free run+, resulting in a large number of speculative carry trade emerged.
?
But slowly devalue the yuan central parity of the central bank holding stability has been reflected in the intent, which to some extent,louboutin discount, also made in the domestic market has been hesitant on massive short yuan.
?
Indeed, despite the continued depreciation of the RMB spot exchange rate since last November,hogan sito ufficiale, but on behalf of the central bank's willingness to exchange rate fluctuations have been small, even a slight appreciation in December. As of January 26, the central parity rate of 6.1384, corresponding to the depreciation of the spot rate of 2% maximum limit of 6.24, which means that the current spot exchange rate is close to the lower limit of 6.2216. If the central bank does not take the initiative to cut the central parity rate,swarovski occhiali da sole, the spot exchange rate has continued sharp depreciation of the space near the end. Many interviewed people in the industry view of the case, reflecting the central bank holding stability intentions.
?
The central bank has been shot holding stability
?
In Wang Han Industrial Securities chief macroeconomic analyst opinion, the central parity of the central bank to devalue the RMB exchange rate is only of a stress test purposes only confirmed outflows pressure is greater than the inflow pressure. As the RMB spot exchange rate has been close to 2% of the limit line, so the future spot exchange rate depreciation will be most consistent with the central parity. Wang Han admitted that, in fact, the devaluation of the space has been relatively limited.
?
But the central bank will not have to let go regardless of parity. If the central bank lowered the central parity once again, let the market that the central bank intends to devalue, which will increase the pressure on capital outflows and cause further depreciation of the renminbi. Wang Han admitted that this vicious circle is not the central bank wants to see.
?
Right on cue, January 27 the day the central parity of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.1364, a slight appreciation of 20 basis points over the previous day the central parity. January 28, continue to improve.
?
Although the central bank basically out of the normalization of foreign exchange intervention,louboutin botte, and gradually get rid of relying on foreign exchange base money supply mode that allows two-way exchange rate based on market supply and demand fluctuations become the norm. Xieya Xuan said but can not ignore the market for RMB devaluation see mood spread Currently,louboutin pas cher, due to the weak domestic economy.
?
At the same time the central bank can not tolerate the continued depreciation of the RMB,louboutin pas cher, the industry view is the main reason the trade data is not ideal. Enterprise from the beginning of the third quarter of last year have shown the RMB devaluation see mood, significant changes in foreign exchange, foreign exchange willingness to reduce,hogan donna 2013, increase willingness to purchase foreign exchange. Wang Han said that even if the central bank to intervene, only to safeguard stability-oriented enterprises difficult to change the mood to see short-term devaluation of the yuan within.
?
The central bank also actually in a dilemma: If the yuan continued to weaken, triggering stop-loss carry trade unwinding monetary end interest rates will rebound. But inevitably, induced massive capital outflows, monetary liquidity shocks end they may occur. Even more critical is the RMB asset prices. After the current account surplus of recession,hogan prezzi, devaluation is expected to give China a strong deflationary effect.
?
Professor,ferragamo occhiali da sole, Chinese Academy of Social Liu Yuhui, told reporters, once signs of capital outflows, the central bank will almost certainly choose a stable RMB exchange rate again. Societe Generale Securities in such opinion, the exchange rate stable currency will continue to be a combination of pine + a future phase of monetary policy.
?
CITIC Securities in its latest research report said that domestic monetary policy easing trend will not waver. States face major central banks competitive devaluation pressure on Chinese monetary policy needs between steady growth and stable currency trade-off. Mainly based on Chinese monetary policy adjustment of the domestic economy, in the absence of extreme external shocks, domestic economic objectives will take precedence over exchange rates. And, in the medium term, steady growth in the domestic economy but also conducive to the Renminbi stable.
????
????
相关的主题文章：
http://store.shopping.yahoo.co.jp/waiwai/gx-56-4.html
http://store.shopping.yahoo.co.jp/littletreasure/sa-linen.html
http://cutyayu.sakura.ne.jp/cabbs/sunbbs.cgi?mode=form&no=126&page=1
http://www.mood88.com/home.php?mod=spacecp&ac=blog&blogid=
http://store.shopping.yahoo.co.jp/gion/a5b7a5a7a12.html
http://store.shopping.yahoo.co.jp/cio/n0106300046.html
http://cutyayu.sakura.ne.jp/cabbs/sunbbs.cgi?mode=form&no=73&page=1t
http://store.shopping.yahoo.co.jp/ebest-dvd/0000001048678.html |
|
浙公网安备 33010602000859号
QQ空间
腾讯微博
腾讯朋友
收藏