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IEA cut global demand for crude oil prices plunged to five-year low implied bear market | rebound in oil prices | bear
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Crude oil market entered a bear market almost a foregone conclusion,hogan online, in the case of prices plummeted, investors in addition to cut crude oil positions, began to gradually betting short positions. Meanwhile, weak demand as crude oil prices also fatal.
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Yesterday, the monthly oil market report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) released noted that this year cut its global oil demand growth of 20 million barrels, 70 million barrels compared to the previous sharp decline. This also means that the 2014 growth forecast for global oil has dropped nearly 5-year low.
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However, IEA also said that the existing growth momentum weak demand may have bottomed out,ed hardy occhiali da sole, next year is expected to increase demand for crude oil will return to the track,louboutin boutique, when the global daily oil demand could grow by 100 million barrels.
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Supply and demand imbalance
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In this wave of crude oil prices during the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil is probably the main reason.
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According to data published by IEA, the international crude oil production continued to increase last week, partly due to a substantial increase in OPEC (OPEC) member states crude oil production to 3070 barrels per day,nike blazer, the highest 13-month high.
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IEA believes that unless the oil-producing countries began to consider control of crude oil production,imitation louboutin homme, otherwise the international crude oil prices may fall further.
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In fact, the current round is not just due to lower crude oil prices and a substantial increase in OPEC member production, shale oil production in the US shale revolution caused by the surge in oil demand and the sharp drop in US domestic oil prices plummeted also round one of the reasons.
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Data show that in 2014 the average daily US crude oil production growth in the amount of 100 million barrels, the current average daily production has reached 850 million barrels, which is the main yield areas of Texas and North Dakota. This area is one of two major United States shale oil drilling platform located. Among them,nike air max, the growth in shale oil constitutes the main reason for the increase in US crude oil production. According to Baker Hughes statistics, the number of US oil well in the latest week to reach 1609,woolrich negozi line, a record high.
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At the same time, substantial growth in US domestic shale oil production also makes the domestic demand for crude oil imports declining.
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Makes between a minus crude oil supply and demand balance situation was broken, coupled with some areas in order to maintain their market share,chaussures nike, not rationally adjust production according to market demand,parajumpers outlet, which led to further deterioration of the situation of imbalance.
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On the other hand, the presence of the current global economy may slow further, which means that demand for crude oil may also be at risk of further decline.
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If no OPEC cuts oil output of a firm commitment, increased Chinese demand alone is not sufficient to sustain oil prices might rebound potential. Nomura Securities said in its research report.
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CITIC Futures Research analyst Pan Xiang believes that the current point of view,new balance 574, the market focus is still the supply side,aire max pas cher, on the one hand is whether OPEC will take the initiative to limit production and protect the price,hogan interactive, on the other hand is whether the US shale oil and oil sands production due to the oil price It appears to reduce the downside.
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November 27, OPEC will hold a meeting, when crude oil production controls may become the main conference agenda. But now OPEC has not yet reached an internal consensus that Saudi Arabia has sent a clear signal to compete for market share,louboutin chaussures, market sources estimate whether OPEC oil shale or the United States,occhiali da vista, the possibility of short-term cuts are very small, so the short-term oil prices remain weak We will continue.
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Short positions
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US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released recently hedge funds and other large speculators cut long positions in WTI crude oil futures 4.8%, a reduction of a five-week high; the same period of short positions grew by 8%, an increase in nearly a month high.
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Data also show that in September, hedge funds and other investors have begun to slash long positions in Brent crude oil futures, the proportion of outstanding contracts to 2.5%, compared with the same period last year but up to 15% it also hit the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced its lowest level since early 2011 since the European data.
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Denmark Global Risk Management Ltd. (Global Risk Management Ltd.) analyst Michael Poulsen said: global oil production surplus funds to further expand the scale of the withdrawal,retrsuperture occhiali da sole, despite geopolitical turmoil, oil prices were still hit.
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Poulsen noted that the Fund started to pay attention now near $ 90 / barrel stop, because once crude oil prices fell below the bottom line is likely to trigger a larger decline.
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Data show that, as of press time reporter, IPE Brent crude oil prices have dropped to $ 88.14 / barrel, while WTI crude oil prices have dropped to $ 85.74 / bbl. And from the price trend,woolrich parka, these two types of crude oil prices temporarily are no signs of a rebound, which also indicates that the crude oil situation or stumble endlessly still maintained in a short time.
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However,louboutin prix, although oil is still a bear market, but analysts still found opportunities present therein.
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Goldman Sachs said in its research report pointed out that investors can choose to do more WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil spread to profit. Goldman Sachs said that the current contract month WTI and Brent spread is $ 2.50, the end of the contract is $ 5.5 spread. Transportation costs from the point of view, this seems too narrow spreads. We determined the need to expand the spread, but it is uncertain WTI Brent oil prices from rising oil prices still. The US market pricing will attract transatlantic oil, help clean up the Brent market, while US oil prices downward pressure.
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Pan Xiang also give similar advice, Brent crude oil contract in recent months to buy, sell WTI crude oil contract in recent months, and held till the end of this year,louboutin paris, or to buy the corresponding spread options.
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