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Emerging markets suffered a crisis of confidence "fragile state" competing emerge
Since the beginning, the Argentine peso in less than a month's time devaluation of 22%,chaussures new balance, and the downward trend continues.
Local time on February 5, Argentina benchmark interest rate has been increased to 28.5%, while domestic inflation is still well above 10%, plus the data has been seriously questioned, IMF and even refused to accept the official data.
Argentina is not the only "swimming naked." With the gradual tightening of liquidity, Turkey, Ukraine, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil in the past month have also gradually out of the water, "fragile five-nation" (Fragile Five, Brazil, South Africa, India, Turkey and Indonesia) It is said frequently seen in the media.
Institute of International Finance (IIF) 5 released monitoring reports show that this year, emerging economies, stock market fell by an average 7.5 per cent; and the American Global Emerging Markets Securities Fund Research (EPRF) statistics show that in January this year, emerging economies stock market funds and bond market funds net outflow of funds were $ 12.2 billion and $ 4.6 billion.
In the current capital flight, slower growth, multiple factors such as political instability, the emerging markets are facing widespread sing the air, the scene is no longer glory days. But it is worth noting that China, Mexico and other countries fundamentals remain sound, the global emerging markets is also actively assist communication through difficult times, this time to talk about the emerging markets have died too early.
Multinational stock and foreign exchange bonds fell Qi
Over the past two weeks,cappelli jordan, the Latin American currencies Pudie, which is more Argentine peso monthly decline topped 22%, the rate of decline over the past two years the fastest. According to "First Financial Daily" correspondent statistics, from January 7th month - February 6, the peso against the US dollar to 8.007, compared to the exchange rate of 6.5565 on January 5, depreciation of 22% a month.
At the same time, Turkish lira depreciation of more than 9% over the same period, 6.1% depreciation of the Ukrainian Reeve Virginia. Other emerging markets also suffered a similar situation: Less than a month in the rupiah devaluation of 4%, 3% devaluation of the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee depreciation is also more than 3%.
Emerging market price level measured by the Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets index is currently more the end of October last year, has fallen more than 10%. Last month,bottes louboutin, the cumulative total of $ 12.2 billion in capital outflows triggered emerging market equities Pudie.
Since entering in 2014, Russia, Brazil's stock market drop close to 10% are Indian stock market decline of about 5%. In addition, a drop of about 8 percent in Turkey, a drop of about 4% of South Africa, Chile, about 8% decline, down nearly 7 percent of Mexico, and Asia-Pacific major markets as South Korea, Australia, Singapore stock market (down more than 5%) work together to build a picture of the emerging markets so badly FIG.
On the other hand, emerging markets local currency bonds began to sell-off in January this year, the net outflow of funds in emerging economies, bond market funds $ 4.6 billion. Argentina credit default swaps (CDS) rose 1,200 basis points over the past month, Ukraine CDS rates are up more than 300 basis points.
Some analysts believe that the overseas media, the emerging markets sell-off situation could deteriorate even further, and panic could spread to the developed countries. Wall Street investment banks have also bearish: Goldman Sachs is expected in emerging economies over the next 10 years, stocks,hogan scontate, bonds and currencies will be significantly lower than the market performance; JP Morgan Chase is expected the next few years emerging market local currency bond returns will drop since 2004, the average 10%; Morgan Stanley believes that the currency continued to decline in Brazil, Turkey and Russia will plunge 17% after 2013.
"Fragile states" competing emerge
Traceability emerging markets this embarrassment, the Fed reduced quantitative easing (QE) can be described as the "culprit."
Over the past few years, the Fed injected a lot of liquidity into the global market through QE, as rising global stock markets provided important support. But last December regular meeting of the monetary policy,hogan, the Fed decided from January this year, the size of the monthly purchase debt from $ 85 billion down to $ 75 billion previously, the first step towards reducing the QE. In January regular meeting of the monetary policy, the Fed decided to further reduce the size of the monthly purchase debt from 10 billion to 65 billion US dollars.
Chicago Fed President and Richmond Fed President recently have indicated that unless economic conditions deviate significantly from the expected, the Fed is likely to continue in the future every $ 10 billion purchase of the scale of debt reduction rhythm.
QE trigger for the Fed to reduce capital flight in emerging markets, Indonesia's finance minister, central bank governor recently followed the step of India, warned publicly that the Fed may undermine the fragile emerging market economies, calling for its reduction to make QE process more transparent and predictable.
Since as early as 2013 because of reduced QE news triggered unrest in emerging markets,cappelli obey, internal differentiation in emerging markets has also begun.
Last August, the international investment bank Morgan Stanley Brazil, South Africa, India, Turkey and Indonesia summarized as "fragile five", which means a massive current account deficit to make QE reduced defenseless. From now on, Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine seems to be very fragile.
Although the agencies to refine indicators to measure the vulnerability of countries vary, but in general,louboutin prix, in response to the financial risks, the most commonly used measure of main current account, the foreign exchange reserves, the domestic financial market maturity of three aspect.
"From the above three aspects to consider, some of the long-term current account deficit relatively large,hogan scontate, while the limited foreign exchange reserves, while immature financial markets, foreign investors in the domestic capital market, the higher the proportion of countries are more vulnerable to the impact of the Asian financial crisis, Southeast Asian countries have learned them, but some countries are now relatively small size outside the reserve is too low. "a foreign investment bank analyst said the reporter.
IMF data show that the size of foreign reserves is relatively tight in Ukraine, Argentina and South Africa. As of January 7, the three countries foreign exchange reserves were $ 18.76 billion,hogan interactive, $ 24.8 billion and $ 41.5 billion.
Some analysts believe that Argentina, Ukraine may be due to lack of alternative exchange market intervention tools and give up, or even abandon the dollar peg. Once that happens,Occhiali Da Sole, the economic impact of deteriorating fundamentals, faced with the collapse of the Argentine peso and even the possibility of control or extreme.
In addition,maglie calcio, the current fragile countries also face high domestic inflation and the grim situation of weak economic growth, the relationship between both handled properly, will lead investors to panic further.
According to the World inflation website in January 2014 inflation rate of 9.13%, India, Indonesia 8.38% Turkey 7.8%, Brazil and South Africa are 5.3%. Although official data Argentina 10.5%, but the market is generally agreed that the actual level of 30% to 40%.
Qiao Feng, general manager of Societe Generale Securities Investment Services Director Zheng Jiahua, told reporters that the recent stock market fell sharply in emerging markets currency markets, the ostensible reason for the delisting is the United States, in fact,hogan lovells italy, more important is the sharp slowdown in economic growth,porsche design occhiali da sole, even as the United States, Canada follow the US currency on the previous QE rhythm and lead to high inflation,hogan, currency devaluation and high inflation has also continued to be controlled by raising interest rates, and to prevent the outflow of funds, investors expect future investment rate of return is not high, the risk continues to increase Big.
In addition, remove and reduce the impact QE economic fundamentals, from Thailand to Ukraine election riots and other political risks in emerging markets also had an impact on investor psychology.
Emerging markets face differentiation
Goldman Sachs CEO had reminded winter Davos investors to distinguish between emerging market countries, "Once the market nervous investors forget to distinguish the difference between these emerging market countries."
Investors generally use funds show their attitude. EPRF data show that investors in the stock market last week from emerging economies siphoned off $ 2.5 billion of funds, but to China, Mexico,hogan online, Southeast Asia (except Indonesia),cappelli los angeles, represented by some emerging market countries, the fundamentals are still good still face capital inflows.
Deutsche Bank said in its investment outlook,adidas springblade homme, those emerging market countries have current account surpluses and strong foreign exchange reserves, still has great investment opportunities.
Also in Davos also made it clear that if someone let him make a choice in emerging markets, and the next 1 to 5 years can not change this choice, he would choose to do more, not short emerging markets. "In emerging markets, one can see the growth, education and mobility. Overall, compared with other countries trivial, emerging market pregnant with great opportunity."
Schroder Investment Management chief economist of the judgment, when the Fed bought debt reduction, Korea,montblanc occhiali da sole, the Philippines and China will be relatively strong market performance, in which China is the emerging market countries will most consistent one.
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