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Devaluation? This is not a thing | devaluation | Real Effective Exchange Rate
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Devaluation? This is not a thing
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The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar since November last year, a clear trend of depreciation,cappelli miami heat, from the lowest point of 6.1078 October 31 has been relegated to the 6.2435 January 27,louboutin chaussures soldes, the day before yesterday is close to the daily limit.
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This round spot exchange rate of RMB devaluation of the yuan central parity contrary, we did not find the spot exchange rate depreciation leading central parity signal, showing that the central bank guided the devaluation argument at this time is not established. Why devalue the yuan it? We believe that the main reasons are as follows:
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1) too strong dollar. Bank of Japan and Europe were to release a significant easing is expected, China in November,bottes louboutin, the People's Bank to cut interest rates and the market for further monetary easing have certain expectations. For now,hogan outlet milano, the Fed's most moral integrity, until now, has also continued to raise interest rates signal a closely guarded secret,louboutins, the US dollar as the world's best performing currency.
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2) funding of safe-haven demand. European QE just settled, the Greek general election will also penetrate the veil, only the Greek debt accounts are accurate exist, no matter what the government eventually came to power,louboutin bordeaux, we can not avoid if Greece will exit from the euro, we will observe fiscal discipline problem. The results of such an event never accurate prediction model does not exist, and this uncertainty increased demand for safe-haven assets (such as US dollars).
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3) capital arbitrage. Since November, Hong Kong's offshore yuan cheaper than the onshore spot exchange rate, qualified enterprises can choose the onshore renminbi market sale of foreign exchange, offshore foreign exchange market,gucci occhiali da vista, the natural increase in arbitrage selling pressure in the onshore renminbi.
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There are short-term renminbi devaluation pressure?
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There may be short-term, because from the historical data, generally in February are likely to occur seasonally trade account deficit. However, we believe that 6.3 will be the central bank can tolerate the bottom line, taking into account the People's Bank has $ 3.8 trillion foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate in this matter, it is best not to go against the central mother.
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Devaluation during the year it will become a trend,chaussure nike air max? We think not.
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First of all, in fact, just behind the devaluation of the dollar is too strong, not too weak yuan. After the ECB QE, a record against the euro fell below 7, the RMB real effective exchange rate since October last year, even rising. ECB depresses the euro will lead to intensified global competitive devaluation, the renminbi exchange rate flexibility is insufficient, the real effective exchange rate is too strong and will hurt exports, this is where the problem lies.
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Second, the dollar momentum weakened. The external environment, the US deleveraging process to achieve the correct type of recovery is the trade deficit, more dependent on exports than ever,louboutin online france, a strong dollar and weak real economy may be Forced to join the United States army to turn on the water; the internal environment, the US economic recovery more or rely on real estate and stock market wealth effect from rising, the real is actually not much remarkable technological innovation, the only bright spot of oil shale oil prices also suffered devastation. Combining these highlights,louboutin pas cher, we think the Fed to raise interest rates this year basically hopeless, combined with the recent significant weakening of US economic data, we think the dollar has temporarily peaked.
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Finally, the fundamentals do not support the sharp depreciation of the yuan. From the current account, China's trade structure in processing trade, commodity prices will directly widen the current account surplus. Finance from the capital account, China's risk-free rate of return compared with the major developed countries there are still significant spreads space,chaussure nike pas cher, coupled with the government on the economy there is still the bottom line of thinking,louboutin pas cher, which is actually to carry funds provided guarantees RMB appreciation trend has not changed.
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RMB exchange rate depreciation in this year will not constitute a factor of surface tension of funds,magasin louboutin paris pas cher, or monetary easing or not depends mainly on the domestic economic situation. At least so far, we have not see the positive factors appear to support the economy upward, we believe that the central bank monetary easing will not stop.
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If you are worried about the RMB exchange rate affect exports, which concerns the existence of a certain rationality, enterprises are faced with the economic downturn, inside and outside the double deflation and higher cost of financing a range of issues, exchange rate depreciation to stimulate exports may well be a scheme to help themselves. However, after the financial crisis, China did not go of debt, but another large expansion, black hole of debt continue to absorb credit resources,céline occhiali da sole, the interest rate is much higher than in developed countries deleveraging after attracting too much arbitrage funds, coupled with the government's economic bottom line thinking funding to carry a risk-free guarantee, rising demand for RMB assets naturally lead to continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In addition,woolrich sito ufficiale, a huge amount of funds also carry the RMB exchange rate does make a little riding a tiger, there are too many carry funds through financial trusts and other channels to boost investment in infrastructure and real estate, if the RMB devaluation,nike air max, arbitrage instant evacuation will directly affect China the stability of the financial system.
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If you are worried about the impact of RMB exchange rate, foreign exchange, this concern also exists a certain rationality,basket louboutin, but this problem can be completely served by the central bank lowering quasi-hedge, MLF, PSL and other currencies, the RMB exchange rate is not a single factor for the stock, bond market liquidity the tight constraints of the constitution.
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If you worry about the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate led to capital outflows direct impact on the stability of China's financial markets, we can only say that this concerns at least for now is not the time. Maybe one day, when the US economy has technological progress and innovation significant progress, hike began,adidas forum mid femme, and the stock of debt and excess capacity in China has not been able to effectively go of the time, the RMB exchange rate will become a prime concern of investors and concern.
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