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International oil prices plummeted Russian financial worrying
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For Putin, oil and gas as his hands
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Russian President Vladimir Putin may not want to admit, but a painful, violent, far-reaching impact of the energy crisis has been like a dark cloud, brought together over the Kremlin.
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For Putin,giubbotti peuterey, oil and gas as his hands, the hands of oil in the international oil prices plummeted gradually weak, want to take natural gas hand waving the big stick also bloated. Although Russian officials hinted once Ukraine and the EU will expire, however, on October 17, Russia and Ukraine on gas payments arrears and other issues reached a preliminary agreement, Russia,air max promo, Ukraine, paving the way for the European natural gas tripartite meeting held on 21 May. Clearly, accounting for nearly 40% of the total Russian gas exports sulk Ukraine and Germany, it is a move to hurt himself,chaussures louboutin, after wounding Seven Injuries Boxing, Russia is now the economic situation is not worth the candle.
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Russian Finance: highly dependent on energy exports
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As we all know, oil and gas on the Russian economy is significant, while state revenue dependence on oil and gas exports of how high you can find the answer from the Russian state budget.
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According to the Russian Federation Court of Auditors October 10, 2013 release of "2014 and 2015 federal budget, the 2016 budget plan conclusion" report (hereinafter referred to as the report), the Russian Federation forecast 2014 revenue of about 13.57 trillion rubles (about 2.04 trillion yuan),moncler bambino, accounting for 18.5% GDP. From a revenue suggests that, where the oil and gas-related revenues of about 6.5 trillion rubles, accounting for 48% of revenue (percentage of GDP was 8.9%), nearly half. And the remaining non-oil and gas revenues of about 7 trillion rubles, accounting for 9.6% of GDP.
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Specifically, the relevant federal oil and gas revenues constitute the mining tax (2.7 trillion rubles) and duties (about 3.9 trillion rubles). Instead of oil and gas revenues constitute relevant include: corporate bodies income tax,cappelli nike, value added tax, consumption tax, (excluding oil and gas) mining taxes (excluding oil and gas) tariffs,hogan scarpe interactive donna, as well as other income unrelated to oil and gas. Among them, the largest proportion of value-added tax (about 4 trillion rubles), accounting for 5.4% of GDP.
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Judging from the calendar year 2014 financial forecast, the oil and gas-related revenues accounted for 48% of the proportion of total revenue it is optimistic. The actual data show that in 2012,doudoune moncler homme, the Russian Federation and gas revenue in the revenue-GDP ratio reached 10.3% in all of the federal fiscal revenue accounted for more than half,hogan interactive, to 50.24 percent.
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In fact, the global crude oil price forecast for the preparation of the Russian Federation is essential budget,woolrich accessori, the Russian official will often predict more than oil price based on optimistic, neutral and pessimistic tone, etc., and accordingly develop different economic forecasts and fiscal balances plan. In the report, the Russian official to the average Russian Urals oil prices over the past six years as a benchmark, the 2014 international benchmark crude price forecast to $ 93 / barrel, and in 2014 Russia Urals oil price forecast is optimistic US $ 101 / bbl.
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In terms of federal expenditure, the total expenditure of the Russian Federation official 2014 forecast of about 14 trillion rubles (about 2.1 trillion yuan) investment in national defense, people's livelihood, housing, environmental protection and other areas. Among them, the highest proportion is related to people's livelihood and social policy expenditure, accounting for 25.3% of the total federal budget expenditure, accounting for the second highest defense spending accounted for the proportion of federal expenditure 17.8%. In addition, a higher proportion of expenditure as well as national security and law enforcement activities of the national economy expenditures accounted for 16.3% and 14.8% of federal expenditures.
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Oil prices: supply and demand imbalances and long-term change
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For 50% of revenue dependent on oil and gas in Russia, the new round of international oil prices plummeted to their suffering from the economic sanctions the West is undoubtedly worse. July 25, the price of Brent crude oil from US $ 108.25 / barrel high all the way down, only $ 84.15 / bbl to 15 October at the lowest valley. The change is consistent with the price of Brent crude oil, the Russian government as an economic forecasting benchmark Urals oil prices approaching $ 83 / bbl. According to calculations of the Savings Bank of the Russian Federation, if crude oil prices remain at $ 90 / barrel in 2015, Russia will thus reduce revenues by 1.2%. Crude oil prices need to remain at $ 104 / barrel, Russia to maintain balance.
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The expected slowdown in global economic growth and oversupply the market imbalance is an important cause of the current round of sharp decline in oil prices. October 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly oil market report that it expects global oil demand will increase by 70 million barrels a day, down from its previous forecast of growth of 90 million barrels; at the same time last month the average daily crude oil production grew by nearly 91 million barrels, mainly due to OPEC member countries and non-OPEC crude oil production in oil producing countries are on the rise.
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But the same can not be ignored is that the US shale gas revolution are profoundly stirred the pattern of world energy markets. Thanks to the development of shale oil and gas technology, rising US crude oil production in recent years. According to IEA data, the United States and related liquid petroleum gas (such as ethane and propane) per day in June and August this year, with Saudi Arabia comparable, approximately 1150 barrels per day. US oil production will exceed Saudi Arabia in the near future, this will be the first time since 1991.
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Although the US shale oil and gas exploration techniques are still problems of environmental protection and cost,doudoune moncler pas cher, but it is undeniable that the US dependence on foreign energy is constantly reduced enough to affect the global energy market. Also with a view of the sharp decline in oil prices in the United States and Saudi Arabia to join forces to put pressure on Russia and Iran conspiracy, but changes in the world energy market probably become a trend.
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Winter is coming, only this time,escarpin louboutin pas cher, the winter in Moscow would come earlier.
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World markets: the Russian oil and gas exports pivotal
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Although not part of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member countries, but Russia's share in the global oil market is also considerable. According to OPEC "2013 annual data announcement,louboutin homme," the Russian crude oil production in 2012 was 10043 barrels per day, accounting for 13.8% of global crude oil production, ranking first in the world. In second place is Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 9763 barrels per day, accounting for 13.4% of global output. The United States came in third, Japanese production of 6505 barrels of crude oil, accounting for 8.9% of global production. At the same time, the sum of all OPEC countries daily oil production is 32,dior occhiali da vista,424 barrels per day, accounting for 44.5% of global output.
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From the export point of view, in 2012, Saudi Arabia is the largest country in global exports of crude oil,woolrich parka uomo, the amount of 7557 barrels of daily exports, accounting for 18.7% of total exports; export volume Russia Day 5857 barrels, accounting for 14.5%; the United States only days 60 barrels of exports, accounting for 0.1% of total global exports; in 2012 the amount of exports to Japan of all OPEC countries was 25,281 barrels, accounting for 62.5%.
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Russian crude oil export target countries mainly by European countries, including the Netherlands, Germany, Italy,basket louboutin, Poland, Belarus, where in 2012 Russian oil exports to the Netherlands reached 36,970 million barrels,tiffany wikipedia, accounting for 21.1 percent of Russia's total exports, while exports first the second largest target country is China, total exports in 2012 to 16340 million barrels,ermenegildo zegna occhiali da sole, accounting for 9.3%.
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From the point of view of natural gas, Russia is the world's gas market leader well-deserved. In 2012, Russia's natural gas production reached 609.2 billion standard way, accounting for 17.8% of global gas production, almost all OPEC countries, the total amount of natural gas extraction (700,426,000,000 square standard, accounting for 20.5% of the global total) fairly. Meanwhile, the total volume of Russian gas exports to 202.96 billion standard way, accounting for 19.8% of total global exports of natural gas, accounting for almost one-fifth of the world market.
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However, given the current layout of the Russian gas pipeline, the main export countries for its gas in Ukraine, Germany, Belarus, Turkey, Italy, France and Kazakhstan and other countries. Among them, the export volume of the largest target country is actually Ukrainian. In 2012, Russia's gas exports to Ukraine amounted to 32.9 billion standard way,?chaussures louboutin, accounting for 18.4% of total Russian gas exports, the second highest in Germany, accounting for 17.6%.
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