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Lee Thunder: Money game less fun and more reliable physical assets such as gold
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Source: Lee Thunder micro-channel public number lixunlei0722, Author: Lee Thunder
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US dollar against the RMB exchange rate has fallen to 6.46 yesterday, that is, the beginning of the RMB exchange US dollars who currently lose out. This year opened the first day of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is 6.5032, up to 6.5646. At that time the vast majority of people are very strong expectations of devaluation, the focus of debate is the choice one step or stepwise devaluation. With the decline of the dollar index, once again confirms a law of financial markets, that most human judgment is wrong.
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Strong US economy does not mean that the dollar will appreciate
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1, to reduce the probability of US interest rates
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In the global economy into the era of flagging US economy is pretty good, at the end of 2015, the United States finally ushered in the long-awaited hike,hogan sito ufficiale, which also reflects the Federal Reserve on the US economy and the employment situation optimistic judgments. However, in the US interest rates after Japan cut interest rates to negative interest rates, negative interest rates in the EU on the basis of the rate cut. In most of the world's developed economies relatively weak, the US economic recovery will not be strong. Therefore, further weaken the US rate hike expectations.
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Global economy are associated with each other, and the correlation degree increasing, therefore, a thriving country to do more and more difficult. Moreover among countries also require coordinated monetary policy, if a country's interest rates while other countries have taken initiatives to cut interest rates, which is bound to affect the export competitiveness of the country to raise interest rates, thereby bringing the country's economic recovery drag, this is called tango.
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Most people predict the end of last year the United States in 2016, there will be four or hike the end of January, the number of people expected to raise interest rates further reduced to once or twice. This is mainly based on the global economy is not optimistic. 2015 global economic growth is lower than expected in 2016 will probably so.
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2, the dollar index is at historic highs
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China's foreign exchange reserves, mainly dollars, the vast majority of Chinese people for the RMB exchange rate movements judgments are based on the dollar as the standard. And, for so many years, China's exchange rate policy really is pegged to the dollar. RMB exchange reform since 2005, maintained against the dollar for nine consecutive years, until January 2014, the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate close to 1: 6. But the dollar index from June 2014 started strong,ceinture ermenegildo zegna, rising from 80-2015 month of March 100,woolrich outlet bologna online, it has been high after consolidation.
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Therefore, the RMB exchange rate movements can not be based solely on economic fundamentals, but also the historical trend of the dollar. Many well-known investment bank analysts at the time of euro interest rate cuts, the dollar would have predicted the euro, the result is the opposite. This once again confirms the prediction is an art,chaussures femme louboutin, a simple causal relationship to derive the judge is often wrong. Because the dollar index over the past trend is already reflected on the future Fed rate hike expectations, it seems hard to say. However, the yen and the euro interest rate cuts, at least be able to reduce US dollar interest rate expectations, thereby weakening the dollar index.
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Economists levels mainly in hindsight explanation of an event occurring, may reflect its vast knowledge and logical rigor. But too many cases can be explained, they have no advantage at all in any prediction.
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Sometimes technical analysis would appear to be more effective,golden goose homme, because the transaction price and volume changes, in fact,piumini moncler, already contains all the information. Now that the dollar index has continued for a year at a high level consolidation, then fall or a high probability event.
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3, commodity prices rebounded against the dollar
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The rise in commodity prices,hogan roma, many people think that starting a new round of economic cycle. I think this possibility is too small. Also in trouble when the global overcapacity in, come cycle requirements can make it rise? Before 2011, China's economic growth is a major factor in global commodity stronger. Today, this factor is gone. Who once again boost demand it? India's economy is still too small an amount. Difficult to take a leading role. Thus, the rise in commodity prices,chaussures louboutin, can only be seen as a long-term oversold mean reversion, or a lagged response to the currency issued.
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The rise in commodity prices can be estimated to last for some time, after falling a very long time. This is a resource for the country's currency appreciation favorable currency of these countries are also depreciated over, and accordingly, the appreciation of the currency resources is not conducive to a stronger US dollar index.
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RMB pegged to the dollar will still be expected in the future
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The dollar index fell to alleviate pressure on the domestic foreign exchange outflow is very advantageous. As the end of March CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 98.14, compared with the end of February devaluation of 1.50%; BIS reference basket of currencies and SDR currency basket exchange rate index were 99.08 and 97.61,cappelli los angeles, respectively, compared with the end of February devaluation of 1.96% and 0.63%.
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Since the next peg, then use the RMB exchange depreciation of the dollar anti-logic it is difficult to set up. Aunt past Chinese buy gold wrong, now for the dollar is wrong, do not change as the euro or the yen yet. Of course, this is a short-term trading strategies in the long term, which country's currency will be stronger, I guess not allowed,occhiali da sole uomo, however, it seems more likely to weaken the yuan. So, the game is not fun money, physical assets or more points with some tricky, such as gold.
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If the dollar index up, still bullish on gold right
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Because the money over, so to configure the gold,hogan uomo 2014, no one understands this truth, and, on a golden decade bull market, speculation is this logical, but gold prices eventually peaked, in 2011 from $ 1,920 / oz the lowest end of last year fell to $ 1,040 / ounce, a drop of nearly half. Recently gold prices rose to around $ 1250, but compared with the highest point,louboutin prix, which is still far from the bottom area. Therefore, from the perspective of technical analysis, the upside is still not small.
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From past fundamentals, the currency over the trigger logic is still rising gold prices established that monetary policy around the world more lenient mainly the United States is continuing to launch QE2, QE3, China's M2 growth is still leading global, 2011 85 trillion to 139 trillion in 2015,moncler prezzi scontati, an increase of 63.5% 4. Therefore, global currency over the price of gold should rise in large logic,hogan rebel, and Chinese currency over even more amazing is the price of gold in China rose little logic.
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However, the real problem is that gold has risen 20%, the dollar index fell to 93 points from 100 points, which is already included everyone's expectations for the future? Gold also rose high, the dollar index also depends in part on how much down. If the yuan is pegged to the dollar, then the dollar index rose once, then the gold price is going down the open?
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My understanding of these issues,hogan sito ufficiale, 1) if the dollar index up sharply, the dollar peg the yuan will not, so the domestic gold prices will be reflected in the exchange rate changes. 2) the peg is relative, that does not cause the yuan against the dollar fluctuate greatly as a precondition to take gradual devaluation of RMB way, it should be feasible policy, the central bank also has this ability. 3) If in the case of the US dollar index rose, the central bank not to depreciate, it is bound to strengthen capital controls, the devaluation was expected to be strengthened, which is also conducive to rising domestic gold prices.
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Financial Features of Gold will tend to weaken
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Gold transactions are so active,?chaussures louboutin, because it has the financial property, gold was the currency, the US dollar had also been established with the international monetary system pegged to gold. Chinese history have had a long silver-based monetary system, to around 1800, China's GDP accounted for 20% of the world silver inventory to account for about half of the world ((Barrett, Ward.1990). Imagine, If China is still silver as money, or the global price of silver soared to a few times. Similarly, gold is no longer money, the demand for gold in the long term, is weakening, and may end up only the remaining consumer demand. with the Internet economy, the currency may also eventually disappear.
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So, I'm just optimistic about gold prices in the future period,air max pas cher enfant, not very long term bullish on gold prices, gold is not considered a very large upside. Remember the most insane when the price of gold in 2011, many people predicted that the price of gold could rise to $ 5,000,golden goose, because the extent of the currency issued or can be explained. But a gold price increase, if another job good innovation.
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The wealth of the world is not just the kind of gold one of only other people can predict the future but will go chase fortune variety is what will it be possible to obtain excess returns.
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