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Ren Zeping: central bank "active" guide devaluation four birds with one stone,hogan uomo outlet
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Source: Ze macro level, Chinese: Ren Zeping macro monarch, Xiong Yiming
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Event: the recent significant depreciation of the renminbi,boss occhiali da sole, January 6 depreciation expand devaluation 300BP 6.56 to the dollar onshore,piumini moncler, offshore renminbi against the US dollar to break through 6.7.
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Comments: 1) core ideas: since December against the dollar significant devaluation. The central bank initiative to guide and adjust the background of the beginning of swap lines, just to be, panic demand and speculative demand to jointly promote the devaluation. This can be achieved steady growth in the central bank control of anti-deflation risks and promote the reform of the four goals, and can effectively enhance the independence of monetary policy and the internationalization of the RMB,outlet hogan, but caused no progressive devaluation expectations fell through,louboutin discount, increased capital outflows to combat risk appetite,woolrich outlet roma, partial negative impact on the stock market. Taking into account China since the 2014 economic downturn,marc jacobs occhiali da sole, a substantial decline in interest rates and the appreciation of the RMB effective exchange rate is obviously the reality, there are still short-term depreciation of the renminbi space,occhiali da vista, but there is a trade surplus medium-term price stability and enhance the three major international support, long-term depending on promote the reform to improve the success of China's economic prospects.
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2) various types of RMB exchange rate are significant devaluation. Since December, while the dollar index is stable,air max 90 pas cher, but the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar significantly devalued,parka woolrich, wherein the spot exchange rate depreciated by 2.5%, 2.1% devaluation of the central parity, the offshore renminbi devaluation of 4.4%, NDF depreciation of 4.2%.
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3) The central bank swap lines with the beginning of the initiative to guide adjustment to jointly promote the devaluation. From the closing price of the yuan central parity and comparison of the previous trading day, the central bank devalued the initiative to guide intentions clear. Market quickly understand the central bank's intentions at the beginning of swap lines to adjust the background, just to be,louboutin chaussures, panic demand and speculative demand to jointly promote the devaluation.
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4) the central bank move four birds with a stone effect. First, steady growth, devaluation and promoting exports, because a quarter of economic growth under pressure; the second is controlled deflation, deflation in the late 1990s, to a certain extent and not to devalue the exchange rate related; Third,juicy bracciali, risk prevention, correction RMB overvalued; Fourth, promoting reform, interest rate market is substantially complete, the current round of devaluation is one of the measures of the exchange rate market.
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5) in favor of exports and the depreciation of the real economy, help speed up the process of market exchange rates and enhance the independence of monetary policy,hogan prezzi, but the short-term liquidity and risk appetite influence negative side. (1) the current economic downward pressure,nike air jordan homme, devaluation of the RMB is conducive to the promotion of exports; (2) the devaluation of the yuan makes closer to the equilibrium exchange rate, the exchange rate will help speed up the process of marketization and internationalization of the RMB. In addition, the more flexible exchange rate, monetary policy independence will significantly improve. (3) capital outflows increased pressure on risk appetite. Initiative to guide plus progressive devaluation lead to not fall through the expected outflow of capital will increase,victoria beckham occhiali da sole, resulting in a negative impact on liquidity and risk appetite hit, the impact on the stock market negative side.
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6) Taking into account the economic slowdown in China since 2014,hogan milano, a substantial decline in interest rates and the appreciation of the RMB effective exchange rate is obviously the reality, devaluation of the RMB is still needed. But the medium term, the RMB is still strong support of the three, namely, the trade surplus, price stability and enhance the degree of internationalization of RMB. Long-term success depends on the ability to promote the reform of China's economic prospects improve.
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