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Lee Thunder: the bottom of the Chinese economy will be able to see not imagine
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Source: micro-channel public number lixunlei0722, Author: Lee Thunder
This year the day flies, a blink of an eye on the coming fifty-one. Although the four-month capital market activity is far better than last year, but the topic of online discussion capital market ups and downs of heat and no less than last year. Shanghai Composite Index more than 3,500 points from its lowest point over 2600, yet even 3000 are not restrain, but as long as there is a market there is expected, there is expected to have a transaction with the transaction have long and short fight, there are many eloquent Great article to support their prediction is correct.
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The reversal is the most likely to be falsified
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During this time, I heard too many Chinese economy has proven bottom, start a new round of economic cycles, commodity prices reversed cycle products rise or reverse inflection point theory on voice reform and other cattle start, and still strong data as evidence. However, what is not the bottom, or the reverse is established to be falsified too easy, because you can use the time to test. Although the test of time required to be long or short, but always right or wrong ideas can be proved.
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I do not know anyone who does not have statistics on how many articles or reports in predicting turning point reversal annually, prediction error and how much? I have always believed that the economic cycle fluctuations, fluctuations in the price cycle not based on a yearly basis, but not by the subjective wishes of the decision, not to say you want to write the report, when the turning point will come, reversal appeared a. Many people are thinking about to do something big, but not when you want to do great things, there will be a godsend.
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Probably because some people's subjective desire is too strong, when they become scholars and they will be judged at the bottom of high-spirited passion has been presented, the upcoming turn, China is at a turning point in history; when they become managers they will emphasize this year is the most critical year, to grasp the opportunity to once every hundred years, after this village no this shop; the time when they become investors, it is estimated will be judged within a year, several times the inflection point, or rejoicing Compassionate, the transactions in large quantities, contribute huge trading volume. China's stock market last year, accounting for the transaction amount of more than a third of global stock markets, estimated that a large proportion of investors are based on the inflection point of the judgment and continue back and forth due to error correction.
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Not want to see the bottom of the economy will be able to see
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China's first quarter data surface look good, but the stock market performance is poor,chaussures nike pas cher, and therefore many people wonder: why the stock market upturn does not improve? I think,adidas stan smith homme, first of all, the economic upturn does not necessarily bring improvement in the stock market, many times the bull market and foreign stock markets are present in economic bad times; secondly, improved economic data is not equal to the economic upturn, as economic data too much, what data is really convincing, what data is not convincing,coach occhiali da sole, it requires discernment.
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To determine the trend of the economy, but should look at long-term trends judgment is too important. Like the mountain road to economic trends are downhill, down the road there is uphill, like, look at what is in the Chinese economy in the mountains or down is the key. Many scholars say that the economy in the second quarter on the bottom, and then will rise, the annual economic trend is V-shaped. Perhaps this prediction is right, but in the long run, it may be just down the road uphill.
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In my opinion, all the world's successful economies in transition,cappelli los angeles, at the end of high economic growth, economic trends (GDP growth), without exception, to go down, the reason is very simple, economical volume increases to a certain extent, economic is the abnormal growth did not fall. Therefore,occhiali da sole donna, the new normal expression also mentioned China's economic growth will be changed from the rapid growth in the rate increase. But the end of the speed increase after that? It should be a slow growth.
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Even slow growth, it is still growing, are also good. US economy, the EU economy is slow growth,louboutin boutique, but the stock market trend is stronger than the mainland. Therefore, the quality of economic growth is very important, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average index in the subprime crisis when dropped over 7000 points, and now is close to the 18,000 point, the Chinese Shanghai Composite was higher than the current position when the sub-prime crisis can not How many.
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China's economic problems is that in order to maintain the GDP growth in the high-speed level pay too high a price, distorted economic structure has become part of the reason. Today, even stabilize the economy in the short term or even rebound, but high leverage, bubble problem,new balance, overcapacity and other issues can be resolved? If you can not solve, or will continue to drag on the economy, the end of the way down the hill,escada occhiali da sole, will continue downward.
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The crux is that the long-term Chinese economy, GDP pull up, but the company's ROE did not pull up, is also the world's top 500 enterprises, Chinese enterprises average profit margin excluding the five major banks after only about half the level of US companies, but China's GDP growth rate is almost 2.5 times the United States. Therefore, a country's economy is good or bad will depend on the quality of the enterprise, if only to stimulate the real estate investment in infrastructure or expand about growth to solve the problem, it would be too simple.
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2016 stock market will reverse it
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To tell the truth, how can I know what the next trend in the stock market? In turn asked, the two exchanges to set up 26 years ago, there have been very accurate stock market forecast shares God? If so, you should be able to remember the name, if not, then the rest is not entirely accurate prediction of the master. This is not sarcastic or criticize others, first to criticize criticize yourself.
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From the point of view of common sense, a continuation of the trend is the norm, such as the Qing dynasty lasted nearly 300 years, until the Ming Dynasty has lasted 276 years. The economic cycle than the cycle change of dynasties much faster, such as a Kondratieff long wave cycle is about 50--60 years, life can go through two cycles compo pretty good. There Kuznets cycle shorter, 18 - 25 years, then there is a short Kitchin cycle, but also up to about 10 years. Thus, most of the time live life in a trend, experiencing an inflection point is very short window of time.
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That is to say,hogan uomo, to predict the risk of a big turning point, with the vast majority of inverse fluctuation trends are not the turning point, especially when the case of such fluctuations on an inflection point in the relatively short time intervals. 2014 to the end of June 2015 This is just a brief bull market more than six months, their power from the central bank's RRR cut interest rates and stock market investment plus leverage, earnings growth of listed companies but is declining.
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Therefore, from a common sense perspective, the 2016 stock market may still the continuation of the trend, the inflection point upward reversal probability is very small. If both year forecast upward reversal, and forecast to break down, so that the probability of even smaller. The past four months,cinture armani, trading volume data,2013 adidas jeremy scott, the amount of atrophy than expected, only about one-third of last year, such a small amount, there must be a large market, I am afraid it difficult. At the same time, consolidation time is so short, it is difficult to exchange much space ah.
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Structural opportunities under market regulation
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When it comes to the presence of A-share market structural opportunities, it never seems to go wrong, and if the trend is forecast can easily be falsified. However, compared with foreign countries, most of the market economy, Chinese financial regulation is indeed a major feature controls help to avoid the occurrence of market crisis, but not all; in the long run,armani occhiali da vista, control more harm than good, but also to the market It brought arbitrage opportunities.
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As for long-term control IPO pricing and the amount of such a market is basically can not lose, the secondary market valuation of long-term high, the market valuation of arbitrage opportunities due to the distortion caused by the long-term presence. Since last year, a lot of concept stocks overseas have regression, in essence, is cross-border arbitrage. Valuation of small cap stocks high odd, and their potential value related to housing; creating small and medium-touted, and under the control of stock supply shortage related.
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So far, the control is still a continuation registration system were delayed, not to mention the strategic new board, IPO queue growing number of companies, which seems related to the maintenance of stability and the stock market. Governance and Compliance does not seem to be compared, but the current situation is the case, in the case of distorted valuations, companies and investors to generate arbitrage idea is not surprising.
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In fact, not only the existence of arbitrage and the stock market, over the years,louboutin homme, the entire financial market arbitrage opportunities are enormous, which is why cooperation silver, silver letters cooperation, bancassurance and other reasons very hot card, all kinds of financial market participants Game supervision and regulatory arbitrage between all present.
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Going forward, as the economy increasingly prominent structural problems,emilio pucci occhiali da sole, it is estimated control will only strengthen, not relax, will expand the scope of control, will not shrink, so the arbitrage opportunities still exist. In the long run,chaussures louboutin, the spread spreads A and B shares, H shares between A and eventually reduced, it is also a potential arbitrage opportunity, but time may be relatively long.
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If you reverse the bulk of China's economic future worries
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China should be the world's largest consumer of commodities, therefore, China's economy has great influence on the trend of commodity price movements, such as the consumption of copper, coal, aluminum, nickel, steel and other commodities approaching or exceeding global consumption half. If the Chinese economy can be like 2000--2010 Nian as in urbanization period of rapid growth, in the heyday of heavy industrialization phase, commodity prices after five years of silence reversal it is certain. Today,hogan scarpe interactive donna, migrants have been reduced, overcapacity of long-term, only by a few quarters of investment in infrastructure and real estate investment growth to drive up commodity prices, its intensity and duration are limited.
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Commodity prices rise, more because of oversold, and therefore, can not be found the bulk of the price increase is a sign of the beginning of a new round of cycle. Are able to start a new economic cycle, but also depends on whether the formation of the new economic hot spot. But the new economic hot spots where is it? The real estate industry has been going on for 16 years upward trend, investment in infrastructure stimulating effect on the economy is also decreasing and increasing social leverage levels.
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This year the economy is expected to meet the two pressure, one is inflation, CPI rise may appear unique situation GDP growth downward; the other is monetary policy because inflation pressure will not dare to relax (not to mention will raise interest rates or increase reserve ratio),scarpe hogan uomo, this situation is also the Chinese economy had never encountered before. Therefore, the Chinese economy is currently facing is how to avoid a crisis, reduce or mitigate the risk of continued accumulation, rather than to meet a new turn, and no possibility Cemayangbian glory. Said to be just the beginning of a good supply-side structural reforms to go to production,swarovski occhiali da sole, deleveraging, destocking, how could suddenly rise to the cycle of the era of it?
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In short, 2016 should not have too much opportunity to reverse, the whole or a continuation of 2015 trends. But look at the world, the opportunity will be a lot more. Global Investment Perspective from Chinese economy from the global asset allocation ideas to see domestic investment risk rating, can you comment on what level they do?
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