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Report: Analysis of five cliff-style decline in private investment,parka woolrich
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Author: Zhong Wei (China Financial forty Forum (CF40) Academic Committee,nike tn requin femme, director of the Financial Research Center of Beijing Normal University) Source: China Finance forty forum
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This year, private investment growth in China suffered a downward cliff,basket new balance, triggering concern. We can reason from five aspects to analyze why the growth rate of private investment continued to drop.
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Decline in private investment led to the first reason, the Chinese economy is experiencing since 1978, a rare long cycle down,coreano occhiali da vista, and the current can not see exactly where. Since 1978, the Chinese economy has had its ups and downs, but since 2010, China and the duration of the economic downturn deeper than people expected, and will continue downward. In this process, we can observe from three aspects. First, China's current economic growth compared with 2010, nearly hit a folded; Second, China is currently suffering from the production side since the Asian financial crisis of a rare long period (PPI) deflation; third, 2014 since China's reserves lost $ 800 billion,nike occhiali da sole, which is very rare in history, and the current foreign exchange reserves continued loss of pressure has not been reduced. These have shown that the economic downturn in China did not see the bottom of the time, whether it is private or foreign investment, have become more cautious. We do not know through the dark tunnel after dawn, or longer dark tunnel.
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Led to the decline of private investment second reason is crowding out the private economy and state-owned economy to foreign investment. We can observe two typical examples of the existence of crowding-out effect. One is from 2004 to 2010, a large number of studies have shown that state-owned enterprises continued to increase leverage, and leverage private enterprises plus the magnitude is not so big. As another example, after 2010 to the present counter-cyclical process, since the driving force more powerful political pressure and exemption, government procurement, bank loans are more likely to state sector, local governments or infrastructure investment, and government the state-owned economy is increasingly strong extruded non-state-owned economy, private enterprises also will be continuously extruded.
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Led to the decline of private investment third reason is increasingly clear positioning of state-owned enterprises and strengthening, but the positioning of the private economy has become increasingly blurred and rigid. We can observe two aspects to locate the problem. First, the state-owned enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises, private enterprises in China What is the role of the market economy status which respectively? We were surprised to find that only state-owned enterprises positioning is very clear, state-owned enterprises are the backbone of the Republic, the economy dominant position can not be shaken, but still do bigger and stronger. And, under the governance structure of state-owned enterprises, party committees should play a more important role. In contrast, the private economy and foreign positioned throughout the mixed-economy which is ambiguous. Although the private economy plays an important role in GDP creation, employment, taxes, etc., but positioned in the economy as a whole which is more ambiguous. At present, private enterprises,occhiali da sole marc by marc jacobs, foreign-funded enterprises which are in difficulties and change, contemplating changes in the process, but if we do not make fundamental changes of policy, development of private enterprises can not effectively support private enterprise will position itself and long-term development of confidence, resulting in a very large impact.
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Decline in private investment led to the fourth reason is the temporary investment of private, privileged relief measures did not achieve practical results. Over the past decade, the State Council issued a number of items to encourage private investment and encourage private measures, but these are temporary, localized,hogan interactive shop online, short-term incentives, or it can be said to be privileged. But in fact, the pursuit of private capital is not the privilege of relief, but long-term, predictable,occhiali da sole, transparent and equal rights, equal rights and that is the state capital investments. China is currently among different ownership enterprises, it has not done in the market environment, legal environment, financial resources and environment of equal rights. In the business environment is not yet equal rights of the environment,hogan prezzi, whether it is the policy of the past decade, or may be introduced later this year to next year's new preferential policies to encourage private investment,just cavalli occhiali da sole, private investment to boost confidence is useless.
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Decline in private investment led to the fifth reason is the confidence of private enterprises through long-term investment cycle began to weaken. This is not a phenomenon unique to this year, as early as in the past three or four years on the performance was very adequate. This three-pronged approach can be observed. The first perspective, around the beginning of 2014 and the Spring Festival, China's real estate investment sudden appearance of a cliff-like drop. Among the real estate investment, private investment accounted for a lot. We can see, since 2014, real estate is characterized by private investment has begun to emerge confidence shaken. Only after September 2015, in October,louboutin mary jane, the situation is deteriorating real estate investment began to ease. The second perspective, from the beginning of the year to now,tiffany anelli, above-scale industrial enterprises ROE, ROA, and net profit after tax rates of the main business is not the case of a significant downturn, private enterprises tend not new investment in equipment, no longer optimistic about the long-term economic growth, but to compress sales cycles, capital return. This indicates that private companies do not have an idea through the cycle of long-term investment. The reason why the rate of return in the real economy there is no significant deterioration, there have been new investment in less than ideal conditions, may be a private enterprise for the long-term return on investment are worried Another possibility is that the Chinese economy will come about L-shaped recession and regain upward trend worried. The third perspective, the Western countries such as the United States, and the situation in China is very similar to the cash holdings of US listed companies more and more,hogan, has exceeded one trillion US dollars,louboutin paris, the United States listed company's cash dividend payout ratio has more than 50%, which it is very rare. So many US companies are willing to hold cash and dividends that the US company's continued willingness to invest is not strong, but China's performance is more prominent.
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2016, the Chinese economy is a landmark in terms of years, the Chinese economy fully into the era of double-digit single-digit age. In addition to foreign trade, GDP growth fell from double digits to single digits, beginning in 2016, China's consumption growth in fixed asset investment growth, broad money supply M2 growth rate will probably fall to single digits and China's economic downward trend will continue.
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When the downward trend in private investment is terminated? We look at the above five factors: when the economy bottomed out? State-owned economy to crowding out non-state economy when get some relief? How many of the non-state economy a clear position? When can be a rights movement? When confidence in private investment can be rebuilt? For now, we can not foresee a time. Therefore, private investment will be further down in 2016 and the foreseeable period of time, China's capital flight pressures will further increase.
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For more than five problem areas,hogan uomo outlet, short-term, policy recommendations can be summarized as follows.
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First, loosen the RMB exchange rate. RMB exchange rate should not be hard to maintain, should be relaxed, softer, maintain exchange rate stability should not be a goal, and to strengthen capital controls to protect the huge loss of foreign exchange reserves do not.
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Second, insurance real estate. Unsustainable infrastructure investment,chaussures louboutin, industrial investment is shrinking,hogan prezzi, the only hope is the real estate investment. I do not deny that the current real estate is a bubble, but if the real estate is now a major problem, the Chinese economy will have a very big impact.
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Third, to promote the mixed ownership reform. We can observe, whether in the financial industry, the energy industry, the telecommunications industry, the Chinese government stake in these industries leading enterprises are held high, reaching 80-90%. For the high proportion of state-owned capital of big companies, can be reduced stake, the release of part of the shares, and promote mixed ownership reform, so that the non-state economy has been moderate breathing space and development. I think, no need to over-state-owned economy to compete for equity, should not be too strong. If you do not want to lose too much equity, it can the government hold a controlling stake in some companies or over two thirds stake in the case, to exceed this ratio by means of the above equity market returned to the market.
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Finally, we should see a decline in private investment and foreign investment in the arduous and not optimism, it is only just beginning, will continue, not because the government has introduced some temporary relief of privilege policy any improvement, we can not expect to repeat the past six or seven years of ineffective policies, we can create a new policy of extraordinary results.
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Chinese economy down,louboutin soirée, is a long period of adjustment. Chinese economy still has growth potential, but the actual development path, it is the policy of many investors' confidence in the appropriateness and whether full decision. Overall, people seem to be afraid, if since 2013 some important programmatic document if the delay can not fall, then China may seem barely controllable slide, but the inevitable crises of adjustment formula.
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