标题: veste moncler homme including flows BOP transactions lead to -3429 million [打印本页] 作者: 50na88bp1 时间: 2017-2-9 18:26:15 标题: veste moncler homme including flows BOP transactions lead to -3429 million
China 2015 loss of $ 500 billion foreign reserve all go? (Graphic)
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500 billion foreign reserve all go? 2015 foreign reserves and balance of payments structure analysis
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Jiangchao Hong View Bond Study: Public No. / Macro from Haitong
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Summary:
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By 2015, China's international balance of payments ups and downs throughout the year outside the reserve to reduce the -5127 million US dollars, a record the biggest drop. The current account surplus expanded background, why is still a substantial decline in foreign reserves? Over $ 500 billion foreign reserve all go? The 2015 report combined the latest balance of payments data, foreign debt, foreign reserve outflow structure analysis.
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2015 Survey of International Balance of Payments: double surplus situation reversed, showing a lot of structural changes. 2015 Sino-US monetary policy differentiation, US start raising interest rates, while China experienced a monetary easing cycle; while the RMB exchange reform after 20 years of the most experienced devaluation, so that the balance of payments situation is reversed. Current account surplus expanded, but the financial account deficit of up to -4856 million, double the surplus pattern could not be sustained,escarpin louboutin, many structural changes presented new features cross-border capital flows.
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Current account and FDI: a stable inflow continues. 2015 current account surplus up to $ 330.6 billion, a 7-year high, the bulk price plummeted down the cost of imports, so that the general surge in the trade surplus, trade in services under the latest data contained in the travel expenses of about 100 billion US dollars to purchase foreign exchange outflow personal , excluding this factor after the current account surplus of over 400 billion US dollars. FDI inflow of $ 249.9 billion, still within a reasonable range, showing the Chinese market for foreign capital still has good long-term appeal.
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Capital and financial account: multifactorial outflow expand. 1) optimize the structure of foreign debt: items under other investment loans, currency and deposits, trade credits and other liabilities total reduction amounted to -3 515 million US dollars, display enterprises to actively repay debt, international investment position and external debt stock data show,hogan outlet, loans, currency and deposits liabilities of stock only 14 years, 60% of the high points. 2) enterprises to go: 15 years of business and foreign direct investment outflow total new loans -2 353 billion, including ODI outflow -1878 million US dollars, the growth rate of over 50%. 3) possession of the Meeting the people: residents and banks choose to hold more assets overseas securities, and currency and deposits and other liquid financial assets, total outflow -1733 billion.
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Net errors and omissions: outflow of hot money trail. 2015 outflow of net errors and omissions amounted to -1 882 million US dollars, has become one of the main factors that outflow. Causes net errors and omissions include statistical point difference, statistical differences and hot money flows. We contrast this project and based on banking exchange data, construct a measure of hot money flows, showed a net outflow of errors and omissions and major trade route through the hot money arbitrage activities related to the project. The project is estimated outflow of hot money of about -1300 million.
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Non-trading factors outside the reserve by about -1700 million. Causes of the decline in non-trading foreign reserve include: 1) non-dollar currency exchange rate fluctuations; 2) fluctuations in the value of foreign reserve assets; 3) support to go out and other non-recurring foreign reserve configuration recall. Euro, British pound relative to the dollar led to an impairment of $ 100 billion foreign exchange reserve assets, partially to bring down bond prices overseas bond market yields offset. And since the second quarter of 2015, China's use of foreign reserve assets SDDS standard reporting, which means injection CIC, Silk Road Fund, and foreign reserves entrusted loans are required to go out to adjust the reservoir diameter, resulting in non-recurring reduction in foreign reserves.
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Summary: outside the reserve all go? By 2015, the current account (excluding individual purchase of foreign exchange) and FDI inflows total $ 680.5 billion; BOP transactions outflow, debt structure optimization, enterprises to go out and Tibetan Meeting the people and other weak speculative outflows totaled -7601 one hundred million dollar; the estimated personal purchase of foreign exchange outflow of hot money outflow and total about -2300 million; non-trading foreign reserve assets dropped by about -1700 million. Overall, the decline in foreign reserves does not necessarily mean that capital flight is relatively controllable strong speculative capital outflows scale.
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2016 balance of payments outlook: a number of factors,escarpins louboutin, we expect the balance of payments is expected to improve in 2016, foreign exchange reserves are expected to decline narrowed. Crude oil, iron ore and other commodity prices steady rise,escarpin louboutin, or so general trade surplus has dropped slightly, resulting in an overall inflows declined slightly to about $ 600 billion; outflows,adidas forum mid femme, in addition to enterprises to go may be growth, the Fed rate hike delay China's return to sound monetary policy, external debt, the size of holdings of overseas assets is expected to decline, three factors total outflow to about -6900 million; while individual purchase of foreign exchange outflow of hot money and motivation is expected to ease, the size of the outflow fell -2000 one hundred million US dollars ; reduce non-trading foreign reserve assets or significantly improved to about -500 million; other items outflow of about -500 million. Overall, based on current judgments and forecasts, we believe that 2016 is expected to drop outside the reserve for 15 years representing a slight narrowing, but the outflow pressure is still large, the initial year is expected to decline in foreign reserves at around 400 billion US dollars, while a quarter had decreased $ 120 billion.
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text:
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By 2015, the ups and downs of China's international balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves dropped by $ 3.84 trillion at the end of 14 dropped to $ 3.33 trillion at the end of 15, the annual decline of up to -5127 billion, creating the largest annual decline on record. Under the background of the expansion of the current account surplus, why is still a substantial decline in foreign reserves? More than 500 billion US dollars of foreign reserve all go? What percentage of foreign reserve outflow of hot money flows? The report is based on 2015 BoP, IIP and external debt data full aperture SAFE latest disclosure of the above problems a full range of structural analysis.
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?1. Overview of international payments
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By 2015, China's overall balance of payments deteriorated, double surplus situation reversed, a substantial decline in reserve assets, compared with the previous year presents many structural differences. 14 years,new balance en madrid, China and the US monetary policy differentiation, the United States withdrew QE start raising interest rates, while China cut interest rates experienced a drop quasi easing cycle; after 15 years, while the second half of the RMB exchange reform experience 20 years, the most significant depreciation of several international payments reversal of form, the traditional double surplus reserve assets continued to increase and reverse the situation, balance of payments structural differentiation, more in-depth analysis is extremely necessary.
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1.1. Reserve assets record the biggest drop
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2015 -3429 one hundred million US dollars to reduce the reserve assets under the Balance of Payments caliber, record the biggest drop. Since 1994, reserve assets continued growth trend has been reversed. Reserve assets actually fell round began the second half of 2014, in the 14 years since the fourth quarter of five quarters, in addition to 15 years in the second quarter, reserve assets were down 15 in the second half of the total reduction - $ 275.8 billion. Since the second half of the 14 years of Sino-US policy differentiation, August 15 after the reform on the yuan continues five months of shock devaluation is the main cause of a significant reduction in reserve assets.
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1.2. The large financial account deficit, double the surplus pattern could not be sustained
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By 2015, China's financial account deficit amounted to -4 856 million US dollars, double the surplus pattern could not be sustained. Although the current account surplus amounted to $ 330.6 billion, a 7-year high, but the capital and financial account of the 14 years since the second quarter of net outflows for seven consecutive quarters, and the outflow is expanding. 15 annual financial account deficit amounted to -4 856 million US dollars, a record high, in which the second half of the total net outflow which reached -3 285 billion, double the surplus pattern could not be sustained. Financial account deficit is huge reserve assets decline.
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?1.3. BOP structure change significantly
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From the breakdown of the balance point of view, China's international balance of payments in 2015 structural changes: the current account surplus expanded direct investment surplus narrowed, the largest investment in the history of other current deficit, net errors and omissions also has a larger outflow. 09--13 years, the balance of payments surplus are basic projects, the average annual increase in reserve assets exceed $ 350 billion. 14 onwards, the capital and financial account worsened. To 15 years, a structural balance of payments and further differentiation, the current account surplus rose 19% -57% reduction in surplus in direct investment, other investment deficit approaching -4800 billion, a net outflow of net errors and omissions are close to one hundred million US dollars -1900 for 09--13 years of 3.6 times.
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?However, only the difference between the breakdown of the balance of payments can not break down the changes in a clear structure. Financial items, increase and decrease of assets and liabilities are reflected as capital outflows,moncler shop online, however, the former reflects the Chinese enterprises and residents active configuration willingness of overseas assets, the latter may reflect the enterprises to optimize the debt structure, reduce foreign currency debt leverage behavior. Sensitivity to different trading motives exchange rate differences, the difference was only observed breakdown is not enough. In order to clearly understand the structure of 15-year balance of payments transactions, predict future changes in the international balance of payments, we conducted a more detailed analysis of the structure in the following few sections.
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2. Stable inflow continues
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2015 current account surplus and FDI inflows amounted to a total of $ 580.5 billion, an increase of 6.4% over 2014, steady inflow continues. The current account surplus and FDI inflows are more stable balance of payments. The former measure the ability of domestic enterprises to earn foreign revenue through international trade, which reflects the long-term attractiveness of their product markets and factor markets to foreign investment. 2015, for a total inflow of more than 580 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.4% over 2014, a record high since 2009,nike silver, show the basis of the balance of payments remains relatively robust.
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2.1 The current account surplus: return to the top of the global trade in goods record
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The current account surplus to GDP ratio to improve synchronization. 15 years, China's current account surplus amounted to 330.6 billion US dollars, hitting a 7-year high, up 19% over 14 years, 13-year surplus of 2.2 times. Current account balance as a percentage of GDP rose to 3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with 14 years to reach five-year high.
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?After a lapse of four years to return to the first global current account surplus, and laid a good foundation for long-term balance of payments. China in 06--10 years the world's largest surplus country, while 11 - 14 years this position was replaced by Germany. The latest data show that China overtook Germany again in 2015 ($ 285 billion), returning to the world's largest surplus country status. Former major surplus countries,chaussures adidas, in addition to a substantial decline in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other energy surplus economies, the ranking did not change much. China in international trade is still at a certain dominance, sustained large current account surplus and lay a good foundation for the balance of payments.
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A record trade surplus of goods. Breakdown, the trade surplus is the main driving force of the current account, the 15-year power to further enhance the annual trade surplus amounted to $ 567 billion, an increase of 30% over 14 years, a new record high for two consecutive years. Services trade deficit widened to -1824 million, mainly due to the rapid increase in expenditure under travel item (analyzed below). The main difference between the primary income profit remittances by foreign influence, the annual deficit -454 billion, No trend to expand. Secondary income deficit -87 billion.
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2.2. Bulk price weakness, the general surge in trade surplus
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Goods trade surplus widened from the general surge in trade surplus. Trade in goods mainly by general trade and processing trade components. 15 processing trade surplus of $ 351.2 billion, compared with last year decreased slightly by -2.1%; and general trade surplus reached $ 298.4 billion, representing a sharp increase of 2.2 times in 14 years, resulting in full-year trade surplus is a record of the main reasons.
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Global commodities slump, lowering the cost of imports, resulting in a substantial expansion of general trade surplus. 2015, oil, iron ore, copper and other metals and energy prices plummeted, while prices of agricultural products remained weak throughout the year CRB commodity price index fell an average of 28%; China, as one of the world's largest commodity importer, costs significantly fall under the general trade exports maintain the basic stability of the background, the general trade surplus was significantly boosted. Processing trade surplus stable and decreased slightly, consistent with the global trade scaled-down trend.
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2.3 The service trade deficit expanded to include individual purchase of foreign exchange outflow
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Services trade deficit mainly from the item under travel expenses, travel expenses increased rapidly since the second half of 14 years. According to the latest data, in 2015,spaccio hogan, China's service trade deficit -1 824 billion, compared with 14 years to expand 5.8%, which travel under item expenditures amounted to -2922 million, a substantial expansion of 24.5% compared with 14 years, 13 years is 2.3 times, constituting service trade deficit is the main reason. 14 years since the third quarter, lower travel expenditures were rapidly expanded, six-quarter total expenditure amounted to -4 249 million.
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?Domestic residents overseas travel spending to boost the main reason for the increase is not, but should pay attention to individual purchase of foreign exchange factors under item travel expenditures included. In practice, in the amount of individual purchase of foreign exchange settlement and sales are mostly carried out by the following declaration travel expenditure item. From closer to the actual foreign exchange banks on foreign exchange settlement Caliber data, trade in services under the difference between CNY-CNH exchange differences and a strong correlation. Especially after the reform, closer relationship between the two, showing the amount of individual purchase of foreign exchange differences over cross-border arbitrage opportunities on the size of fluctuations, foreign exchange driven services trade deficit change.
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Travel spending data sources change more accurately reflects the individual purchase of foreign exchange situation. The latest data correction reflected an important change in trade in services statistics caliber: travel expenses for the data source changes SAFE latest data available. Prior to the international balance of payments statistics, the balance of payments under travel items were estimated according to the National Tourism Administration and other data sources, this adjustment means that travel expenses would be closer to travel under the foreign exchange, so as to more accurately reflect the individual purchase of foreign exchange situation . The caliber changes result in 2015 and 2014, travel expenses adjusted by 39.2 billion and $ 69.8 billion respectively.
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Individual purchase of foreign exchange outflow how much? Estimated at around 100 billion dollars. Before 2013, a strong correlation between the number of China's outbound tourism and travel expenses between 2014--15 years, a strong correlation was broken, spending growth under travel item significantly higher than the number of outbound tourism growth. Taking into account the recent rapid growth of shopping abroad could spend an estimated outflow of individual purchase of foreign exchange under the item included in 2015 travel of about 100 billion US dollars.
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2.4 Direct investment: long-term attractiveness of the Chinese market is still large
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FDI inflows are more stable, long-term capital market, China still has a very strong appeal. 2015 FDI inflows $ 249.9 billion, down slightly compared with -6.8% in 14 years, but the data is always greater volatility, since 10 years, FDI inflows remained at between 240 billion -2900 million in 2015, the Federal Reserve normalization of monetary policy under the open channel in the background, still achieved $ 249.9 billion inflow of FDI fully reflects the country still has a strong appeal.
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Steady growth in investment income, earnings prospects remain good. Investment income remitted entry is also steadily growing since 14 years, 15 years remitted a total of $ 267.3 billion, an increase of 20% over 14 years, showing long-term capital investment in the Chinese market, earnings prospects remain good. The future is expected to remain stable in the vicinity of the inflow current levels, FDI inflows will continue.
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Multivariate outflow expand
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3.1 External debt structure optimization: a substantial reduction in debt-like liabilities
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External debt structure optimization is the 15-year capital outflow is the main reason, the annual decrease in OI liabilities outflows amounted to -3 515 million US dollars, compared with more than 14 years Save $ 400 billion. Other investment capital account balance to measure the change in the debt category of firms and banks. Since the second half of 14 years, under the item other investment liabilities continued to decrease, showing companies and banks actively adjusted its foreign debt structure, active external debt, reducing foreign debt. 15 investment projects in other liabilities decreased by $ 351.5 billion, $ 413.8 billion was the total reduction since the second half of 14 years.
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Wherein loans (mainly for corporate external debt) liabilities decreased by $ 166.7 billion, currency and deposits (mainly banks ED) liabilities decreased by $ 122.6 billion, reducing the trade credit liabilities of $ 62.3 billion. Reduce loan liabilities 6th consecutive quarter, reducing the money and deposit liabilities were concentrated in the second half of 15 years to reduce $ 105.1 billion. Trade credit liabilities are annual outflow. 15 was also the first time in the history of all three categories of liabilities substantially reduced situation.
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?China relaxed the United States tightening spreads narrowed; plus the expected depreciation of the RMB there are some, is the cause of massive debt repayments. China since 14 November easing monetary policy bias, continuous implementation of the RRR cut interest rates several times, the 1-year SHIBOR interest rate from 5% to around 3.1%, while the United States at the end of exit 14 QE, and on 15 December open the interest rate channel, 1-year LIBOR from 0.6% to 1.2%, US spreads narrowed sharply from the 4.4 to 1.9 percent. This means that as long as the devaluation by more than 2% by dollar-denominated debt that is higher than the cost of domestic loans. In August after the devaluation of the RMB exchange reform to withstand pressure, maximum depreciation over 6%, resulting in many companies the early repayment of debt.
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3.2. The stock of external debt declined, structural improvements
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International Investment Position (IIP) of foreign debts and our data indicate that the stock of foreign debt decreased structure improved.
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From the point of view IIP, after a sharp outflow of currency and deposits, loans, debt stock of the balance of class drop, subsequent outflow rate is expected to be eased. The balance of payments capital account outflow of other investment liabilities, the balance of other investment liabilities decreased with the same kind of trend, should permit each other. At the end of 15, the loan balance of $ 329.3 billion debt class, less than half the 14-month high in June,louboutin prix, the level has dropped to 11 years in Q2. Currency and deposit liabilities balance $ 326.7 billion, down 35 percent compared with the end points 14, 13 years down to the level of the third quarter. Two Total Liabilities $ 656 billion, compared with the end of the second quarter of 14-year high of $ 462.8 billion decrease.
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Foreign debt dropped significantly at the end of the total foreign debts fell -15.4% compared with the end of the quarter. Our total foreign debt denominated external debt data includes 15 years since the first quarter. From the comparable caliber data, the total amount of foreign debts by the $ 1.67 trillion at the end of January 15 fell to $ 1.42 trillion by the end of the quarter, the reduction of $ 257 billion, a drop of -15.4%. Wherein the foreign debt denominated in foreign currencies (ie, 14 years before the external debt and caliber) from the $ 895.4 billion at the end of 14 fell $ 759.5 billion, a decline reached -15.2 per cent to the level of early 2012.
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?Breakdown, the end of the year compared with the end of the quarter, loans, currency and deposits, trade credit and reducing the total $ 374.4 billion, in line with the balance of payments statistics. Compared with the end of the first quarter, loans from the $ 550 billion down to $ 321.6 billion, a decline of more than 40%; currency and deposits debt fell to 437.4 billion from the $ 331.5 billion trade credit fell by a 312.3 billion $ 272.1 billion. Three total reduction of $ 374.4 billion, total external debt constitutes the main reason for the decline, in line with the international balance of payments statistics.
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US interest rates is expected to be delayed, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized in the context of expected foreign reserves in the first half in 16 years due to decline in external debt is within $ 160 billion. 16 years, the global market turmoil and the downturn of oil prices, slowing the pace of US interest rates, after the March FOMC meeting the Fed's dovish than expected, the RMB exchange rate steadily since February, devaluation is expected to be weakened, outside the reserve is expected to decline in the first half led to 16 years of external debt is within $ 160 billion, loans and currency and deposits of foreign debt to around $ 500 billion, and the remaining positions (long-term corporate debt, the bank needed foreign exchange liquidity position, etc.) and on interest rates exchange rate decreased sensitivity in the second half of the outflow rate will further slow down.
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3.3 enterprises to go out,cinture gucci, increasing foreign direct investment
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15 years of business and foreign direct investment outflow total new loans -2 353 billion, including ODI outflow -1878 million US dollars, the growth rate of over 50%, constitute another main reason for the outflow of foreign reserves. In recent years, to encourage domestic enterprises to go out and actively explore overseas investment potential, has become a major foreign strategic. Foreign direct investment grew steadily since the beginning of 11 years, from 14 years suddenly accelerated, 15-year continuation of the high growth momentum, annual ODI outflow -1878 billion, an increase of 53%. Wherein the second half of the ODI total outflow amounted to -1 169 million US dollars. While foreign loans added $ 47.5 billion.
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?3.4 increase. Possession of the Meeting the people, liquid financial assets
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Residents and banks choose to hold more assets overseas securities, and currency and deposits and other liquid financial assets, total outflow -1733 billion. The third important reason is that capital outflow residents and overseas banks hold more highly liquid financial assets, resulting in the transfer of assets from the official reserves of foreign exchange to banks in the hands of residents and to achieve a certain degree possession of the Meeting the people. By 2015, Chinese residents to hold foreign securities increased $ 73.2 billion, while currency and deposits increased $ 100.1 billion of assets. The latter also reflects the impact of foreign exchange earnings to defer settlement under the current account to a certain extent.
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?4. net errors and omissions: outflow of hot money trail
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Net errors and omissions began to flow rapidly expanded since the second half of 2014,peuterey milano, the total outflow in 2015 amounted to -1 882 million US dollars. Net errors and omissions in the year 2008 presents a small inflow of average quarterly inflow of $ 10 billion or less; Switch outflow since 2009, the outflow accelerated since the second half of 14 years, 15 years in the third quarter amounted to -634 one hundred million outflow US dollars, annual total outflow -1882 billion. Net errors and omissions outflow expand and become one of the main factors in the balance of payments in the outflow, it is a new phenomenon since 2014.
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?Net errors and omissions item Cause complex consists mainly of three reasons:
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1) reference time difference. The balance of payments, reserve assets is based on changes in foreign exchange transactions on a cash basis under the statistical system results obtained, and other items (especially the current account) on an accrual statistics, statistics point difference is included in the net errors and missing items.
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2) statistical differences. Mainly in sub-item in the current account, trade in goods, trade in services and the caliber of the customs import and export goods and foreign payments received are different caliber. BOP caliber caliber trade in goods containing offshore merchanting and other items are not included in customs statistics, the incoming feed processing differences are recognized in trade in services. These statistical differences in principle should not result in changes in the overall balance of the current account, but because the process involves different statistical estimation methods, it also produced some errors.
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3) hot money flows. In the capital account remains completely open in the background, in recent years, the increasing scale of hot money flows to achieve the main route through the current account transactions, the performance of widening deviate several statistical data. This factor also reflected in the balance of payments net errors and omissions item.
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Our main flow of hot money trail for analysis.
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First, the difference between the total height of the banking exchange is consistent with the overall balance of payments trend. Total banking exchange under current account balance reflects lower capital and financial items Valet exchange settlement bank balance and the balance of the bank's own foreign exchange and, highly consistent with the overall balance of payments, so that we can structure two caliber Comparative tracking some clues hot money flows.
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?From the current point of view, the balance of payments and banking exchange caliber caliber since the second half of 14 years, any significant divergence. In four quarter moving average data, 2010--11 years, and 12 in the second half --13 years banking exchange difference is significantly higher than the balance of payments; and 14 years since the second half, foreign exchange under the current account balance significantly lower than the international balance of payments, a decline of rapid expansion.
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However, this difference in part by the foreign exchange trading business caused by changes in the will, with real business background, not hot money flows narrowly. RMB exchange rate expectations affected by the foreign exchange business often phased changes wishes, may partly explain the difference between the current account balance regularly under the balance of payments and banking exchange difference between caliber. 2010--11 years, and 12 in the second half to 13 years, twice through the process of RMB continues to appreciate, companies intend to ascend settlement, purchase of foreign exchange will decline, foreign exchange differences under the balance of payments and international caliber, respectively.
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Based on our international balance of payments accounting rules to construct a measure of hot money flows change indicators. Balance of payments statistics, if the current account surplus corresponds to no settlement of foreign exchange earnings, or surplus in RMB reflux, it will finance the performance of foreign exchange assets under increased or decreased RMB liabilities, its financial results corresponding to the next item outflow. Suppose the capital and financial accounts in other foreign currency transactions are realized, then the difference between the banking exchange under the capital and financial terms (including the difference between the bank's own foreign exchange purchases) and the balance of payments of different caliber that is reflected in the current account balance No settlement or partial settlement in RMB. Based on this principle, it can be estimated foreign exchange under current account balance in the scale of hot money flows.
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Estimated indicators,christian louboutin pas cher, net errors and omissions outflow from the second half of 14 years to expand, and the trend of hot money flows under the regular item correlation great. Hot money flow index under estimated current account and net errors and omissions are more consistent fluctuation of item 07 years ago, mainly for small inflows, inflows in 2008 to expand 09 into the outflow from the 14 - A 15-year outflow scale again. This rule is displayed round net errors and omissions were indeed largely related to the route through the current account of the hot money flows. Taking into account the statistical standards, as well as delay in advance payment receivables and other issues may cause a small error (on a quarterly basis within 15 billion), an estimated 15 years of hot money scale outflow of about -1300 million.
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Hot money flows may be mainly achieved through entrepot trade and other forms. Comparative statistical data after adjustment, we found that trade in goods within the customs caliber foreign receipts and payments in line with the difference between the change in the balance of payments trends, collection and payment of foreign non-customs caliber trade in goods (including re-exports, etc.) since 14 years the second half deficit expanded significantly, with trade in goods contrary trend data. The difference between the two displays or re-export the main channel of hot money flows.
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5. Changes in non-trading foreign reserve factors have led to
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5.1. Not all foreign reserve decline caused by cross-border transactions
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Foreign reserves decline and can not be simply understood as capital outflow, it causes decrease in foreign reserve includes not only the balance of payments transaction flows, also includes other non-trading factors. BOP transactions capital outflows measure the caliber of international payments under the cross-border flows, rather than trading factors measure the value of the stock of foreign reserve adjustments due to exchange rate,golden goose paris, asset prices and other factors have led to a non-cross-border transactions. The foreign reserve decline simply understood as capital outflows will exaggerate the severity of capital outflows.
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15 years of foreign reserve reduction -5127 billion, including flows BOP transactions lead to -3429 million, non-trading factors outside the reserve to reduce the -1698 million. 15 In the second half, China's foreign reserve decrease -3 635 billion, of which foreign reserve losses due to non-trading factors to -876 million US dollars, accounting for about a quarter. Wherein the reduction in the fourth quarter for trading foreign reserves decline, accounting for losses due to non-trading factors reached 37%.
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More than 5.2. Factors leading to non-trading foreign reserve decline
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Causes of the decline in non-trading foreign reserve include: 1) non-dollar currency exchange rate fluctuations; 2) fluctuations in the value of foreign reserve assets; 3) support to go out and other non-recurring foreign reserve configuration recall.
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Our foreign exchange reserves to about 40% non-US dollar currency assets, mainly in sterling and euro assets. Our 15 years since the second quarter reporting a representative portfolio of foreign exchange reserves to the IMF, based on IMF data 2Q15 official foreign currency reserve structure before and after, can be approximately estimated currency composition of China's foreign reserve assets. In the late 15's foreign reserve in the second quarter, the dollar accounted for 60.6%, the euro and sterling in total about 30% lower in other currencies and other assets accounted yen.
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?Euro, British pound relative to the dollar led to impairment of foreign reserve assets. According to these estimates of foreign reserve structure, fitting sequence variation stock of foreign reserve assets due to exchange rate changes, we can see that the exchange rate fluctuations on our non-trading foreign reserves decreased with a considerable degree of explanatory power. We estimated annual asset impairment due to the pound, the euro relative to the dollar and other lead of about 100 billion US dollars.
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Foreign reserve asset prices were partially offset by losses due to exchange rate changes. 15 years have fallen sharply to about 25bp annual eurozone government bond interest rates, the UK Treasury bill rate also declined. Wherein the second half, the euro area 10-year bond interest rate from 1.67% down to 1.20%, the German long-term Treasury interest rates, the United Kingdom long-term Treasury rates were also down about 25bp and 30bp. Taking into account the foreign reserve assets of the euro area and several long-term Treasury bond prices rose to $ 100 billion in the UK or outside the reserve, largely offset losses resulting from the depreciation of the euro the pound.
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It is known outside the reserve non-recurring configuration includes: CIC funding, venture Silk Road Fund, the Asian investment banking, foreign exchange reserves entrusted loans. Administration of Foreign Exchange announced in February, according to the SDDS standard, with the support of foreign reserve will be adjusted to the outside out of scale when operating funds to other aspects of accounting, the investment company also announced that such funding has been deducted. Because of the second quarter for the first time in 15 years, report to the IMF representative foreign reserve portfolio, we estimate that foreign reserves to CIC's capital injection may call up the data in the second quarter,hogan interactive shop online, the exchange rate and capital gains seasonal factors may smooth this second recall of. According to public information, foreign reserves have been on the Silk Road capital injection of $ 6.5 billion, of the Asian investment bank to provide initial capital of more than $ 1.1 billion have been put in place, these impacts are likely to be reflected in the second half of the 15 years of foreign reserve.
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?6. Summary: $ 500 billion foreign reserve all go?
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6.1 illustrates changes in the structure of foreign reserve 2015
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We are more than 2015, China's foreign exchange reserves exceed $ 500 billion decline in the structure were analyzed. To sum up, foreign exchange reserves fell in 2015 have the following characteristics:
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?1) remained stable inflow of BOP transactions, the total inflow of $ 680.5 billion. 2015 current account surplus hit a 7-year high, foreign direct investment inflows have remained in the normal range, the total inflow of $ 680.5 billion after adjustment, growth is more robust, lay a good foundation for China's international balance of payments.
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2) BOP transactions outflow, debt structure optimization, enterprises to go out and possession of the Meeting the people factor total outflow -7601 billion. Three types of speculative trading weaker, sustained impact on the foreign reserve and balance of payments smaller. Enterprises to actively make the external debt stock of external debt reduced pressure to reduce the subsequent outflow; foreign investment enterprises, residents and overseas bank holdings of liquid assets, are the process of foreign currency assets by the official foreign exchange reserves transferred to businesses and household sector, not capital flight, also to a lesser extent affected by cross-border arbitrage activities.
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3) individual purchase of foreign exchange outflow of hot money outflows and estimates about the scale of -2300 million. The balance of payments net errors and omissions largely reflects the scale of hot money flows, trade in services travel expenses included purchase of foreign exchange outflow of individuals, we estimate the size of the two were at -1300 billion and $ 100 billion dollars. This part of the outflow become involved in cross-border arbitrage activities, the main factor of exchange rate fluctuations triggered.
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4) Non-trading foreign reserve assets dropped by about -1700 million, mainly due to exchange rate changes, changes in the value of the stock of assets and non-recurring foreign reserves transferred out. Foreign reserve decline reflects changes in the value of the stock of reserve assets in this section, as well as non-recurring foreign reserve changes due to take SDDS data standard brings. Non-trading foreign reserve assets fell not directly formed cross-border foreign exchange transactions, less impact on the exchange rate.
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6.2 2016. BOP Prospect
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Under the influence of a number of factors, is expected in 2016 is expected to improve the balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves decline narrowed.
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1) the current account surplus is expected to decline slightly, FDI inflows continued, the total inflows of about $ 600 billion. Crude oil, iron ore and other commodity prices steady rise since February, year on year decline gradually narrowed from 15 in August. 16 years is expected to bulk prices steady slight, general trade surplus fell back; the continuation of the processing trade surplus slightly downward trend, the current account surplus (excluding purchase of foreign exchange outflow personal) is expected to total about $ 350 billion. FDI inflows will remain in the vicinity of the current size, the overall inflow is expected to decline slightly to $ 600 billion.
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Enterprises to go out or outflow will be expanded to repay foreign debt, hidden Meeting the people outflow is expected to ease, the total outflow of about -6900 million. In the supply-side reforms to domestic production and all the way along the strategic background, 2016, foreign direct investment and corporate loan portfolio is expected to be expanded, is expected to total outflow of about -3000 million. And in 2015 the external debt structure significantly optimized, loans, currency and deposits debt balance reduced by 40%, the subsequent outflow pressures have eased, 2016 external debt outflow of about -2500 million. Delay while the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, central banks in Europe and Japan continue to loose, return to sound monetary policy in China, so that domestic and international market is relatively stable spreads, motive liquid assets held overseas will be weakened, it is expected outflow of about -1400 million. These three factors total outflow of about -6900 million.
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Fed rate hike delayed return to sound monetary policy in China, the individual purchase of foreign exchange outflow of hot money and size is expected to drop to -2 000 million. 15 Fed start raising interest rates in December, but the impact of the first quarter of this year by the global financial market turmoil and oil prices still low, the Fed rate hikes much more slowly than expected in December last year when, again lower long-term US bond yields; and with the rise of inflation, China return to sound monetary policy, the domestic market interest rates steady slight, US spreads to widen again this year. Changes in Sino-US stance of monetary policy and the central bank at the beginning of the timely intervention of the yuan in the offshore exchange differences between onshore narrowed sharply, short-term exchange rate stabilized. In this context, this year's purchase of foreign exchange outflow of hot money and personal pressures are expected to decline, it is expected to total outflow of about -2000 million.
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Reducing non-trading foreign reserve assets is expected to improve,nike air max, the year is expected to total assets for impairment at about -500 million. US rate hike expectations delayed, non-US currencies relatively strong, while the US, the eurozone and the UK bond yields have decreased greatly, so that impairment of non-trading foreign reserve assets in the first half narrowed significantly, and even increase in value; the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in the second half the pace of the restart, again slightly stronger dollar, US bond yields or improved, overseas stock market may slightly adjusted, non-trading factors may lead to a slight devaluation of foreign reserve; combined years will appear less large non-recurring foreign reserve assets transferred out, a more substantial improvement is expected to reduce projected annual non-trading foreign reserve assets, estimated at about -500 million.
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Overall, we expect: FDI inflows in 2016 will decline slightly; outflows except enterprises to go may be growth, the external debt, the size of holdings of overseas assets is expected to decline, and individuals to purchase foreign exchange outflow of hot money is expected to ease motivation, non-trading
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