Global oil prices as "tax cuts": 60-80 dollars range fluctuations will become the new normal | bearish | Brent
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OPEC meeting on Thursday from the Black Swan cause oil prices have passed a few days,ed hardy bracciali, oil prices are still in the low range consolidation, good times and bad,louboutin pas cher, which seems to confirm in New York Sanshan macro funds (Three Mountain Capital) Chief Investment official New York University professor Chen Kaifeng prediction: the future price of oil will be in the range of 60-80 dollar range fluctuations.
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Beijing on December 4 at 7 pm, WTI crude oil price of $ 67.47 per barrel, Brent crude oil price per barrel to $ 70.12. Since last Thursday two were dropped near $ 68 and $ 71 later, despite the short-term signs of recovery, but still did not escape the price level range.
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Macro hedge fund in years of Chen Kaifeng,hogan scontate, had fought for many years at Morgan Stanley. Early in the oil price around $ 120 is still flying when he began to bearish commodity futures, now his attitude has not changed.
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Some large players are to leave the battlefield. One of Europe's largest hedge fund Brevan Howard has begun winding up its scale of $ 630 million in commodity funds, some funds began to be followed by action.
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Chen Kaifeng in an interview with Herald reporter interviewed stressed that the 21st century, a market in which any explosive event occurs after a large bearish basically good news has been priced in the market, oil prices entered a relatively stable stage, but relatively before the price, in a low range of fluctuation.
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Many factors led to oil prices
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"21st Century": Although the market had been expected, but the OPEC meeting decided on the day, oil prices are still more than the magnitude of the imagination. What do you think causes the same day oil prices? Whether it is expected that such a situation?
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Chen Kaifeng: Although we have expected this, but does not cut after the bad news came out, the market is still relatively pessimistic. In addition, oil prices today there are still many other reasons. One day, a large hedge fund liquidation decision,louboutin bianca prix, and secondly to catch up with the long Thanksgiving weekend, the market is not trading many traders, leading to low liquidity. So that day, is a multi-disciplinary fundamental factors plus technology plus cash flow and other factors, led to a drop in oil prices.
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"21st Century": hedge fund trading action at this time, is also a great impact on the market?
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Chen Kaifeng: this situation often occurs. After some big event out if the market is highly volatile, then, if some large funds do have to worry about winding up, then these events will be the last one pressed down straw.
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"21st Century": the day we see the following WTI fell to $ 68 a barrel,hogan uomo, Brent close to $ 70 a barrel level. The outside world has been worried Brent fell below the psychological barrier of $ 70 for this psychological barrier,giacche peuterey, how do you see?
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Chen Kaifeng: oil prices in the long run,nike pas cher, or look at the fundamentals of this psychological barrier does not make much sense. Or long-term oil supply and demand decisions,parajumpers alaska jacka, rising fuel consumption and declining production, determines the trend in commodities go down.
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$ 60 to $ 80 range bound
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"21st Century": Despite the drop in oil prices, but the market all kinds of indicators, does not seem to panic?
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Chen Kaifeng: It is indeed such a situation. I think there is no need for oil overreact, oil prices is not a very bad thing for consumers is a good thing, but also to stimulate the economy, and therefore do not need to panic.
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"21st Century": This is a fall when you can hit the bottom? Why do you think oil prices will not go down to fall too?
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Chen Kaifeng: This is a very, very difficult to go down to fall, after all, the point of view of supply and demand, India, Japan and other countries are a large number of countries, crude oil imports,discografia police, their demand will be higher.
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I think the problem we have now is not a bottomless problems that need attention, but a range of fluctuation.
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At this position, the oil price will be down to $ 60, up to the greater possibility of 80 dollar range fluctuations. Further down it may trigger cut, and then further on the case may also lead to the production increase again, so the upper and lower ends have some fundamental support and pressure.
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So I personally think that in the coming period will show a range of fluctuation in oil prices. Of course, now it will reduce the interval to a higher level than the previous interval before is probably between $ 90-110, and now the fundamentals of supply and demand determine the total of this new range is to go down, but then fall down and up the possibility of skyrocketing also very limited.
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"21st Century": Thanksgiving Day, when the news came out, you said to look at the market and so on, let loose a casual smoke. This week, the market is gradually being clarified you feel it?
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Chen Kaifeng: I think that is a lot better. Hedge fund liquidation action, any market in this explosive event occurs after a period of time will be relatively calm. Big bad good news has basically been digested by the market, the future is to see the traffic, in general, it will be much affected. Oil prices entered a relatively stable stage.
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Away from high-risk assets
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"21st Century": the current overall market for high-risk assets were all away, and this is how the relationship between the price of oil?
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Chen Kaifeng: Currently on the market environment is generating Risk off (risk fear), investment in the crude oil and other assets lost money, it must reduce its risk (risk profile), will be inclined to sell some high-risk assets. For example, this point of view, the stock market and other utilities stocks performed better, also shows that in the long term, partial value of the investment would be more secure.
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"21st Century": It is not the market's risk aversion is also increasing?
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Chen Kaifeng: If you look at gold,woolrich uomo, then gold up a lot, indeed increased risk aversion; but you look at the United States Treasury bonds, bond yields did not fall under the general risk aversion and people will continue to buy government bonds. I do not think now what is a very large risk aversion.
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Overall market control, but it does not mean that individual plates without problems, such as high-tech Internet,woolrich parka donna, new energy, etc., there may be adversely affected. But this is an industry funding rotation phenomenon.
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"21st Century": So you think the rise in gold in recent days to $ 1,200 an ounce level, what are the main driving force that?
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Chen Kaifeng: gold actually in the case of a rangebound. Because in general this is a highly mobile world, each central bank continues to print money, driven by liquidity, asset prices is difficult to go down.
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"21st Century": Historically, how the degree of association between gold and oil prices? Situation this time, whether typically reflect the relationship between the two?
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Chen Kaifeng: Gold has many properties: oil and sometimes will show a positive correlation, it is because they have the same product attributes, together with many investors into the same; Also sometimes, belong to safe-haven assets gold, while oil is risk assets, so oil and gold may reverse operation, which depends entirely on the market in the end is a risk-driven, or to hedge driven.
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Emphasis on value investing
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"21st Century": the investment strategy of the following market investment strategy for your assets and commodity-related have any suggestions?
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Chen Kaifeng: still have to be cautious, the overall risk of commodity investment is particularly great. Its direct investment in commodities, I personally recommend buying some of the higher dividend of products, value-oriented investment, including energy companies and other large blue-chip companies, and those relatively high leverage of small and medium sized companies, it is more dangerous .
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"21st Century": the overall commodity you are bearish, what assets might be worth the investment?
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Chen Kaifeng: whole commodities, from energy to produce metal and then, there are basically two major trends: one is the production continues to rise, leading to price will decline; the other is the worldwide,moncler donna, including Europe, Japan and China have a stimulus, from the point of view of liquidity is a commodity price support. So these two forces leads to results, making the possibility of previous commodity booms and busts to be much smaller, balance is now under a new joint role of market fundamentals and balance the financial side.
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"21st Century": Are there any related derivatives investment operations, can help investors manage risk?
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Chen Kaifeng: Options for risk management is a very important product. For example, one of the world's largest oil producers Mexico, every year there is a budget to buy a large number of put options to protect its oil revenue, such an approach is worth learning.
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Oil prices and geopolitical
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"21st Century": OPEC decided not to cut back, who is the biggest beneficiary?
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Chen Kaifeng: Actually want to see oil prices at this position, still a lot higher than before. Many commodities have dropped sharply, relatively speaking, oil is not a special case. Previously,hogan outlet online, when rising oil prices, a lot of money into the hands of some of the instability in the Middle East countries,dsquared2 occhiali da sole, the situation has led to instability. The drop in oil prices, the long-term stability is a good thing for the global economy is beneficial.
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Oil prices is actually a process of global tax cuts. For consumers or producers, it is a process of reducing the tax burden of the oil field.
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"21st Century": Some people benefit, someone is bound to lose?
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Chen Kaifeng: loss is natural oil producing countries. A few years ago, when high oil prices, oil-producing countries benefit now just returned a few steps,doudoune moncler, less some of this revenue loss can not be called.
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"21st Century": What time is the next node and the event will affect the price of oil would be?
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Chen Kaifeng: From the big perspective,hogan interactive, if several large oil-producing countries in the Middle East political instability, it will definitely affect the price of oil,louboutin homme, this is difficult to predict,adidas gazelle femme, but it is likely to occur. Russia is also a potentially destabilizing factor, the pressure is greater than several countries in the Middle East. Secondly, it will also have an impact on the behavior of the Fed raising interest rates lead to increased cost of capital, it will certainly promote commodity prices.
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