标题: adidas varial trainers if a blood transfusion [打印本页] 作者: 70oq72ej1 时间: 2017-1-10 08:03:44 标题: adidas varial trainers if a blood transfusion
Local debt substitution: innovation and risk
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Editor's note: This year, the Ministry of Finance has approved the amount of 1 trillion of local government debt for the replacement of at least 1.86 trillion of local government debt due this year, including the high cost of bank financing platform loans, trust, the city voted bonds and the like. May 12, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, the CBRC issued "on the 2015 underwriting directional issue local government bonds issues," which clearly 2015 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities within the Ministry of Finance issued bonds limit the use of replacement oriented underwriting a certain amount of local debt issuance, for replacing part of the stock of debt. After the introduction of the policy, caused widespread concern in the market, the parties around this initiative belongs to Chinese Version QE engaged in a fierce discussion.
Why is the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, China Banking Regulatory Commission launched directional underwriting the issuance of local government bonds? Debt exchange approach can solve the problem of local government debt fundamentally? This operation will change the banking industry and what impact the development of our country? How it will affect our local government bonds are hot in the development of the bond market? For our short-term and long-term macroeconomic impact will be what?
To explore these questions, "21st Century Business Herald," issue an interview with Chinese financial forty members of the Forum, the State Council Development Research Center of Macroeconomic Research Fellow Wei Jianing, Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping, China Finance Forum invited forty people member, director of the Institute of fiscal Science, Liu Shangxi, Industrial Bank chief economist Lu political commissar, is the 21st century Beijing first round table 402. (Pay Force)
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Core Abstract: Local debt replacement whether the Chinese version of QE, should look at Rational Thinking can not be distinguished by a labeling method. Ignoring the nature of the problem and explore the adoption of sound policies,hogan interactive, may actually lead to greater risk.
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Wei Lian newspaper Commentator
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Newspaper correspondent force pay
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Chinese Version debt exchange = QE?
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"21st Century": After the launch of the debt exchange, the view that the move is a Chinese version of QE, how do you view this?
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Liu Shangxi: This is obviously a hypothetical, assuming the debt is later replaced by the central bank,hogan nuova collezione, it may lead to base money, expanding the money supply, China's version of QE. The latest release from the policy point of view, not by the central bank to make a purchase, it is clear it will not lead to base money to make debt monetization. So this is just a guess,?armani occhiali da vista, from a practical point of view, does not become a Chinese version of QE. And from the current and future trends to observe,?adidas, China did not need to engage in QE, conventional monetary policy is still room.
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Lu political commissar: on this issue,air max zero, and now a lot of discussion,louboutin femme, but it depends on what QE. The first definition is that the QE policy is an unconventional, unconventional policy means no down time when interest rates drop, the central bank was forced to forced to continue to inject liquidity into the financial system; second definition is that monetary policy is more assume more fiscal policy should undertake the task; the third definition, QE is considered a liberal.
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For the first definition, of course, not the replacement of China's QE, because of China's interest rate has not dropped to zero, there is room for monetary policy in China, especially now that the deposit reserve rate is still as high as 18%, still do not talk to QE. QE means that even if financial institutions are not short of money,hogan rebel, the central bank will be on a large scale to recapitalize financial institutions,cappelli 47brand, but now China's financial institutions need to pay 18% of the reserve, so the problem does not exist. For the second definition, this time can be considered in line with the debt exchange, China's monetary policy certainly should have been assumed by the fiscal policy to undertake the task, not only that, including the central bank for the PSL operation policy banks, support the three agriculture, small and micro etc., they all have to assume monetary policy fiscal policy mission means. For the third definition, debt replacement is certainly a liberal.
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China's macro-policy discussion, in fact need to be more forward-looking policy on the need for rational thinking, not only distinguished by a label manner,prix christian, ignoring the nature of the problem and explore the adoption of correct policies that will actually lead to greater risk.
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Lian Ping: the debt exchange with the West QE substantial difference, can not simply be understood as the Chinese version of QE. The replacement of local government debt included in the scope of central bank collateral SLF, MLF and the PSL, which only increases the liquidity of local government debt, mortgage and eventually accepted to serve the number of mortgage liquidity, the commercial banks will be subject to demand and central bank monetary policy and many other factors influence the choice, completely different from the QE the central bank to purchase a pre-determined size and active mode. At the same time, the central bank through this form of mobility has served maturity and does not lead to permanent expansion of central bank balance sheets. The QE generated liquidity is permanent, there are also significant differences between the two.
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The innovation of the debt exchange
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"21st Century": What is the Ministry of Finance launched directional underwriting the issuance of local government bonds this initiative is the background?
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Liu Shangxi: At present, China's local government debt reached a relatively high level, in this case, the debt burden of local government debt risk has increased, in order to resolve the local debt risk, while increasing local government initiative in the steady growth of so now take the debt exchange to solve the problem, it is a very favorable measures.
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Replacement bonds market is way way under the guidance of the government, to determine the interest rate is the interest rate range of government regulations, the role of the market in this range. This not only summed up the experience of local government bonds issued in the past, and taking into account the actual situation of the local government bond market at this stage in the market is not mature, the government guidance is necessary.
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Lian Ping: This year the pressure is not small local government debt, government debt due in 2015 Audit scale diameter about 2.8 trillion yuan. In the local government revenue growth slows, debt pressures in the background, the issue of the introduction of local government bonds and a series of related measures of its necessity.
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"21st Century": What is the use of innovative debt replacement way point?
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Lian Ping: To ensure the smooth issuance of local government bonds, the conventional local and corporate bonds, this time on the issue in a series of system design innovation.
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From the way of looking at the issue, change the past, the Ministry of Finance issued a proxy model to provincial local financial sector issuers, the unification of rights and duties of local government as the main issue, highlighting the role of the provincial local government debt issuance and repayment of ; at the same time, within the limit of the replacement will have a certain amount of directional underwriting the issue.
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From the use of debt, the main local government for replacing the stock of debt, part of which will be directed to issue the local financial sector with a particular creditor consultations undertaken according to market principles and be replaced.
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From the bond function, the local government debt will be incorporated into a range of collateral and collateral monetary policy operating tool part, means that the local government bonds and policy financial bonds and other government bonds as collateral to obtain a qualification, and enhance local government debt mobility.
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It is these institutional innovation, the current local government bonds attractive to investors will be increased substantially, which will be reflected on the issue of interest rates. The release is expected to fully reflect the local government debt is relatively low level of credit risk, interest rates have dropped significantly compared to its debt to be replaced, thus promoting local cost of debt levels return to normal.
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Liu Shangxi: innovation is mainly reflected in the replacement of bonds included in the scope of mortgage or pledge to enhance the liquidity of bonds. This creates the conditions for the replacement successfully issued bonds.
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Lu political commissar: the debt exchange innovation is directed substitutions. According to documents can be seen, then the loan must be directional displacement, then the wording of the non-standard financing documents can be used. Since the debt maturing this year can be completely replaced, there would not be missed, thus reducing the cost of consultations.
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Local government debt to ease pressure
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"21st Century": the use of directional replacement method for reducing the local government debt problem which will positively impact our country?
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Lian Ping: the debt exchange will help promote China's local government debt management system, formed in line with international practice and Chinese local government financing real mode.
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Overall, local government debt, China will play a role in three areas. First, the stock of local government to effectively resolve the debt risk. The second is to reduce the pressure on local government debt. From revenue situation, in 2014 China's general public revenue grew by only 8.6% over the previous year, for the first time in nearly 23 years fell below double digits, while in January this year - in April revenue increase of 5.1% over the previous year, growth continued fall. Debt exchange to some extent, to extend the period of local government debt, effectively solve the short-term liquidity problems. Third, help reduce the cost of debt local governments. The debt exchange is a new replacement bonds issued stock of loans and other liabilities with cost to the provincial government as the main issue of debt financing costs as compared with the original will be greatly reduced. Expected duration of different local government debt at interest rates of 4% -6% range, will be significantly lower than the stock of debt interest rate of 8% -10% of the bank loan or trust class financing. After the debt exchange, local government financing will improve the capacity and solvency.
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Liu Shangxi: debt exchange will promote the structural optimization of local government debt, reducing debt service pressure on local governments to ease the tight liquidity situation, to avoid a large area of local government debt default risk. Will make local governments more funds to carry out public facilities and social infrastructure in the process of urbanization, to ensure steady growth. At the same time, help revitalize the bank's credit assets, increasing the bank's loanable funds, as well as revitalize the capital stock of social currency.
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Lu political commissar: The purpose of this operation is two-fold: First, make financing more standardized, improve transparency, and second, reduce financing costs and improve the sustainability of government debt.
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From the first side, according to "Budget Law", China's local governments do not have the qualifications of public debt. Debt financing platform is in fact doing the financial sector should be done without making things; it belongs to the government of the debt, but not listed in the government's balance sheet. Essentially due to the large part of the Government's debt, but by way of debt financing platform exists in the budget sheet, thereby causing the central government to local government in an attempt to set limits on debt management that may arise out of control risks.
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From the second side, then financial institutions to provide financing to business platform,basket louboutin, although the government seems to have internet connection, but the lack of clear legal norms, even when regulatory agencies are constantly warning of risk, and explicitly prohibit credit financing, resulting donors uneasy, rising risk premiums, coupled with the prohibition of credit and other financing platform led to the narrow channels of financing, which pushed up the cost of financing and financing platform. The debt exchange, the first clear the participation of replacement debt financing platform characterized as government debt in the table, after the completion of the gradual replacement, the total amount of local government debt will be more clear and transparent; Secondly, compared with non-standard loans and bonds relatively better flowability. So, by the implicit government debt into government debt expressed by illiquid assets into highly mobile assets, such costs have dropped significantly after the debt exchange.
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Of course, even without considering the above factors, the past few years due to economic and price down, to adjust monetary policy, including the cost of financing platform, including various types of financing compared to previous years have also dropped a lot, especially in government bonds decline Big. A few years ago, various financing rates relatively obvious in their record highs, the current interest rate drops to a certain level, debt replacement can help reduce the interest burden on local governments, which in the long run, help to strengthen local government debt may Persistent.
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Improve bank liquidity
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"21st Century": The Ministry of Finance will allow local government debt into the central treasury cash management treasury and local range of collateral,acheter louboutin, and allowing local bonds as part of China's central bank standing lending facilitation (SLF), medium-term loan facilitation (MLF) and mortgage supplement loans (PSL) range of collateral. This development of China's banking industry will be what impact?
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Liu Shangxi: the replacement of local government debt, while banks will bring the appropriate pressure, the bank's assets yields, relatively speaking, the replacement yield bonds yield less than bank loans, banks can only make up for other activities earnings in this regard. On the other hand, it is a good thing for banks, further revitalize its credit assets to get more loanable funds, there are more choices. Not only for banks, companies get a replacement bonds to be used as collateral, thus expanding the scope of mortgage or pledge bank, so the bank risk control also has a positive effect. Overall, the banking sector will issue replacement bonds produce butterfly effect, the impact will be multifaceted.
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Lian Ping: the replacement of local government debt will have two ways of promoting the stable development of the banking sector, help to stabilize the banking sector asset quality. After the debt exchange, credit risk exposures related to commercial banks will be clear of local government credit guarantee for the smooth operation of significant asset quality. It will also improve the liquidity of commercial bank assets to help improve the ability of commercial banks to the overall liquidity management. At the same time, banks with local government bond collateral to obtain liquidity support can be formed if one relationship with the corresponding bond assets, it is also possible to reduce the cost of funds banks have some help.
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Lu political commissar: this approach is the way it should have been taken. In accordance with past open market operations can be included in the scope of the collateral only bonds and policy financial bonds, which are risk weighted sovereign or quasi-sovereign bonds 0; however, since last year, the central bank is also considering the credit or loan debt included in the scope of open market operations, such as PSL to accept as collateral for loans. The development of local government bonds is the emergence of new varieties of bonds,adidas rh instinct, had not clearly defined. But according to the occupancy of 20% risk weight, the higher risk weight of 0 policy financial bonds heavy, but apparently less than the loan 100% risk weight. Thus, the provision could be included in local government debt the central bank open market operations, the range of collateral, collateral is to improve specification. Due to the large size of these bonds, this would help improve emergency financing to commercial banks, to help commercial banks to get cash support.
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Operational Risk of debt exchange
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"21st Century": the debt exchange mode in the actual operation will produce what the problem?
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Liu Shangxi: The debt exchange there may be operational risk, although adopted a directional manner, but also need to have replaced debt investors to buy, need to be carefully considered in the course of operation, the key is to make creditors, debtors and stakeholders parties to reach an agreement, a consensus, so that it can significantly reduce operational risks. Blindly use administrative measures to avoid operational risk nor desirable, the key is to improve the rule of law and the degree level.
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Lu political commissar: Although the displacement remains the local government debt, but its bond liquidity and local government public offering is not the same. For institutional investors that is involved in replacement, it has been specified minimum amount, term and interest rate. Therefore, this pricing and investment institutions, public auction market bonds the way there is a difference, and its pricing can not be considered fully market-oriented, can only be treated in a similar way to private equity.
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Stand in the perspective of financial institutions' balance sheet point of view, between loans, bonds and cash, there is a desirable ratio. Now requires financial institutions to this part of the debt after the loan was replaced, resulting in the ratio of its loans and bonds between the emergence of imbalances, financial institutions may have to adjust its proportion of bond holdings, then, even if replacement bonds temporarily can not be traded,cinture chrome hearts, financial institutions may choose to sell some of the other bonds in an attempt to re-balance. Thus, while the current bond market interest rate cut by the strong inhibition, but may cause the next time the bond market interest rates.
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Debt exchange for the development of China's bond market is concerned, only a one-time phenomenon in a particular historical period (not the disposable time, but one thing that should not be the existence of this phenomenon is resolved), should not be the norm, because in this way is not a market behavior, investors can carry out all elements of risk prevention have all been prescribed.
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In the debt exchange process, the need to focus on the risks of financial institutions, that is, the risk of investors. The replacement, indeed eliminate the credit risk of commercial banks (including reducing the occupied venture capital), but it makes the interest rate risk has become a difficult risk management and control. Interest rate risk management and control of financial institutions the way, is that so few levels: First,louboutin online france, you want to or not, but only to be replaced before; the second is to choose more or less want to, but then a lot must be replaced at least in front of the loan; Third choice period, but the replacement ratio determined period; fourth is the interest rate to choose, think high-risk interest rates may cast a little higher, but the upper limit may be replaced with a predetermined interest rate bid. The current three-year, five-year, seven-year and ten-year Treasury rates have fallen to historic low levels. How to prevent future interest rate risk is a huge challenge, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank need to be considered in the next permutations.
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Moreover, the debt exchange, there are many outstanding issues,scarpe hogan uomo, because the replacement debt belongs to the new breed of all relevant content should be reiterated that in the past the local spontaneous self-regulation also has a debt, whether the automatic follow these rules? For example, if there are tax benefits? How venture capital occupancy requirement? Is there a concentration of the considerations and requirements? In two regulatory liquidity indicators of Basel II, the replacement of debt conversion how? Although temporarily not allowed to be traded, when they can be traded? Included in the MLF, SLF and treasury bills discount rate tender how to calculate? Supporting policies which local governments can take in the short term? Whether the future will always continue? These questions are not clear.
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"21st Century": Compared with directional replacement, is there a better place other measures to solve the debt problem?
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Lu political commissar: the future of the proposed issue of special treasury bonds, with an intermediate pass-through mechanism, the central bank is fully transferred, because the central bank's profit and loss is borne by the Ministry of Finance. Why take this approach? Since the central bank can not buy bonds directly from the Treasury, can only be purchased from the secondary market, so they need to find channels, such as the existing three policy banks.
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The existence of the debt exchange three aspects: first, as an investor's financial institutions were excluded from the negotiation of the terms of the replacement, after the replacement of almost all the elements have been specified, the financial institutions in the face of long-term interest rate risk helpless; second, although the replacement of debt recorded in the head of the local government, but local governments can not go bankrupt in the law, the central government to local governments still bear unlimited liability,peuterey wiki, equivalent to the local government debt bonds in nature, but because they were as a local government debt and the risk weight of 20%, reducing the cost of financing the urgent needs of the moment, the cost of pay is not necessary; third, because the debt was recorded in the different parts of the head of government, and thus create artificial local debt market segmentation, reducing their mobility, but also affected the international bond market in China. If these Treasury bonds issued abroad unified, national debt expanded capacity will greatly improve bond market liquidity, which is also easier for the pursuit of cheap foreign capital to help promote the Chinese bond market and the internationalization of RMB. The current Western developed economies generally zero interest rates to insurance companies and pension payments caused tremendous pressure and risk, they need to look for higher-yielding assets, because of the Chinese do not understand most of the time they can only trust sovereign debt,armani lunette de vue, while foreign currency Chinese authorities hold more government bonds, it means that the yuan on a larger scale into the ranks of the reserve currency.
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The fundamental strategy of Debt Risks
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"21st Century": the future of local government debt to resolve the fundamental measure what is?
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Liu Shangxi: fundamental measure to resolve the local government debt is local government functions for accurate positioning. Local government functions, the more and more needs to be done, and therefore also cost more. In the case of insufficient financial resources of their own, it needs financing, at this point, how the scientific division of powers between central and local government is very important. In the background of the development of urbanization, only local government budgetary funds is difficult to fully meet the public facilities, infrastructure financing needs, it needs financing, which is a norm. Debt will be at risk, hence the need for risk management, risk control, while making borrowing more transparent, improve capital efficiency, and local economic growth and regional economic development a virtuous circle.
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Lu political commissar: For the risks of local government debt, as long as there is no liability to foreign residents, will only exist liquidity risk, but there is no credit risk. From the perspective of the debt burden, the debt problem is primarily a problem of economic growth without economic growth and rigid compression liabilities, almost no successful precedent in history. As long as China is still a good long-term growth prospects, debt repayment will not be a problem. Therefore, when the control debt risk, to grasp the rhythm, do not take liquidity risk into credit risk.
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Wei Jianing: the face of the current economic downturn, severe blood loss situation, there are three theoretical proposition: to the view that a blood transfusion, increase efforts to deliver credit,escarpins louboutin, increasing the money supply; Another view holds that surgery, accelerate reform, to stop bleeding as soon as possible ; Another view is that the so-called new normal, similar to anesthetics, pain needle play, let people temporarily adapt to the new normal economic downturn.
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The problem is that, if a blood transfusion, anesthetics, play pain needle for the purpose of the surgery, then not only is it should be, is necessary. However, if the only blood transfusion, anesthetics, pain needle play without surgery as soon as possible, then it is possible to delay treatment until the needle anesthetic and analgesic drug effort is over, we will be too late!
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In short, the key to properly handle the relationship between blood transfusion, anesthetics and surgery between. Central bank buys bonds from the hands of local financial institutions a way to serve money is to spend money to buy the mechanism, it is necessary for the purpose of promoting reform, reform success or failure as the standard, comprehensively deepen reforms paving the way things along.
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