标题: cappelli jordan good banking and real estate in 2015 will introduce more easing [打印本页] 作者: 50na88bp1 时间: 2017-1-3 16:55:14 标题: cappelli jordan good banking and real estate in 2015 will introduce more easing
China's central bank "point line" full RRR impact? | Point line | Monetary
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Monetary policy is appropriately adjusted according to changes in the intensity and pace of the economic basic conditions
Yesterday evening, the central bank announced Heavy financial institutions RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points since February 5. At the same time, small micro-enterprise loans accounted for directional drop quasi standard of urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks additional non-county decreased by RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points on the Agricultural Development Bank of China to reduce extra RMB deposit reserve ratio 4 percentage points. Bank of points, lines and a full range of quasi-point drop unexpectedly, multiple passes of the policy implications worth pondering.
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Full drop quasi meant to concerns about the economic downturn has been pressing for easing the negative effects of vigilance; directional drop quasi again, in 2015 the central bank money and credit and financial market regulation directed working sessions to strengthen the basis of the interval regulation on proof. As an additional drop quasi Agricultural Development Bank, a central bank believes that the county in 2014 have made it clear in the context of the overall objectives and key policy measures Agricultural Development Bank of China, which is beneficial to its initiatives in the field of infrastructure facilities in rural areas play a greater role .
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Orientation drop quasi whether the standard is consistent with the previous unknown. Suppose half of city commercial banks and agricultural firms fall in line with pre-standard orientation,nike air max 90 pas cher, according to the Agricultural Development Bank is now expected 450 billion yuan in deposits, the drop Brigadier release 600 billion yuan of liquidity.
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A capital city of central bank money and credit management at the time people talk about the drop,escarpin louboutin, said: Previously directed by RRR,scarpe nike, MLF, open market operations, etc. supplemented with a certain amount of liquidity, but still not enough, the recent economic data is not too idealistic, financing costs should be further lowered.
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Recently, the central bank Shanghai headquarters to the jurisdiction of 86 local corporate financial institutions to convey what the new normal under an appropriately tight monetary policy, the central bank noted that the intensity and pace must be adjusted according to changes in the economic conditions of the base, so neither more nor less. Both timely and appropriate adjustments based on conditions occur when major changes to promote steady economic growth, structural adjustment and restructuring and upgrading to gain time; but also to prevent excessive drainage curing structural distortion, pushing up debt and leverage levels.
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Experts believe that the central bank chose a comprehensive drop quasi-point line, apparently some of the changes in the underlying condition occurs, while monetary policy is also appropriate to adjust the intensity and pace of economic changes underlying conditions. Industrial Bank chief economist Lu political commissar of the view that the RRR is PMI fell below the previous reaction (50). CICC expects fixed income research department, January CPI will fall close to 0.7%, while the mean PMI downside momentum remains weak economy, social finance and monetary growth is likely to continue Powei, M2 is likely to fall below 12%,woolrich bologna, the highest a record low.
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From the financial considerations, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Professor Liu Yuhui point in time that the drop was not unexpected. New Year demand for liquidity is strong, inter-bank funding pressures this week, the market is relatively large,tuta adidas, so this does not drag down quasi Friday.
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In addition to markets, capital outflows and intensive issue of new shares between seasonal factors and the recent Bank funds face pressure. February 3,louboutin homme, 2014 the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced full-year and fourth quarter preliminary BoP data show that the fourth quarter of 2014, capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions) deficit of 559.5 billion yuan (equivalent to $ 91.2 billion), the highest since 1998, the largest quarterly deficit.
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Evening of January 30, the Commission announced audit by 24 companies IPO, most of which focused on the issue in February 9th to 11th. Hai Tong Securities estimates, with reference to the results of the IPO in January, is expected to the current round of IPO success rate of 0.6% to 0.7%, it is expected to freeze the funds in 1900 to 2200 billion yuan.
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China's central bank lowering standards, but also on global central bank easing competing reaction made. According to CICC fixed-income team to say, turn on the water in the central banks have been used to stimulate the economy, the Chinese are not equal to tighten loose.
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Minsheng Securities macro team expects annual foreign exchange under the assumption of zero growth of the monetary base gap of about 3 trillion yuan, which means that the RRR does not appear only once. Bank Financial Research Center that, outside the large-scale ECB quantitative easing, the dollar, there are downward pressure on the economy, currency devaluation,louboutin femme escarpin, capital flight or will run through the first half, foreign exchange slowdown trend is hard to change, the reserve ratio is expected to further there are 1-2 times, each down 0.5 percentage points,louboutin sandales, the more likely occur in the first half.
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The year is expected to introduce more easing measures
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Brokerage agencies generally agreed that,porsche design occhiali da sole, at this time drop quasi exceeded general market expectations, good banking and real estate in 2015 will introduce more easing.
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Shenwan Hong Source: cut interest rates once again been put on the agenda
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Shenwan Hong source believes RRR fully compliant with policies logical and expected, after the rate cut is expected to be put on the agenda. And some high-frequency performance from PMI index from January to February, in the first quarter, the economy is worse than the fourth quarter of last year, the trend growth rate should have been down to around 7.1%, the expected full-year GDP target of 7.0%, that is open the economic situation has been close to the bottom line of policy, the annual target of increasing pressure. In this case, monetary policy steady growth in addition to the active participation of choice. Brigadier down by increased liquidity adequacy to guide the funds rate down, but in the economic downturn, a general decline in the bank's risk appetite background, the RRR for reducing the cost of financing a limited effect, there is a need to guide the community through a downlink rate cut financing costs.
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Hai Tong Securities: RRR Damulakai easing can be expected
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Hai Tong Securities believes that the decline in foreign exchange systematic background, the reserve ratio has continued to decline in space, the year is still expected to cut twice,louboutin prix, this year the central bank will not rule out other systemic approach to a more long-term base money. SAFE huge foreign exchange decline of recent disclosures drop quasi increased sense of urgency, suggesting RRR system is designed to hedge foreign exchange trend of decline in the short term, can also alleviate the funds before the holiday next week,louboutin noire, IPO and bring cash pressure. According to the current size of the deposit is estimated that 0.5 percent of the reserve rate cut will release about 5,500 billion of funds, given the cut for the Agricultural Development Bank, the overall release of about 600 billion, the most favorable bank.
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CICC: help the nominal and real interest rates fall
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CICC that, before the market is expected to relax high, and the recent relaxation of the monetary authorities have suspected,escarpins pigalle louboutin, tangled market consolidation. In this context,golden goose homme, the central bank announced to reduce the deposit reserve ratio should be exceeded market expectations. The central bank cut interest rates to help the nominal and real interest rates decline, if policy continues to follow up, the real economy will be a boost for the capital market also play a positive role. Historically, although not all of the RRR can continue to play a positive impact on the market,hogan rebel, but given the current drop quasi measures will help ease market liquidity, lower cost of funds assisted the short end in order to achieve real economic decline in borrowing costs, impact on the market will be slightly positive.
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CITIC Securities: valuation of bank shares is expected to increase to 1,hogan interactive.5 times the PB
CITIC Securities believes that the RRR in favor of the banking sector profitability enhance and promote the valuation of banking stocks lifting, a single drop quasi positive impact on the profitability of banks is about 1 percent in 2015 valuation of bank shares is expected to increase to 1.5 times the PB.
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Recent regulatory tightening first two umbrella harmony with capital to avoid capital off the real to the imaginary, then the implementation of loose operation, is expected to release the funds directly into the stock market is limited, but it will significantly improve investors expect a positive effect on the stock market formation. Looking ahead, in the economic downturn, growth in the monetary base is limited and so on macro background, monetary policy in 2015 will have more relaxed space,moncler uomo, is expected to include multiple and 1-2 RRR rate cut will help to improve the medium-term liquidity is expected.
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Guotai Junan: good real estate
Guotai Junan that the central bank unexpectedly drop quasi estate subject sent spree. Enter since January, real estate fundamentals are weak, and to benefit from the further easing of credit policy, real estate stocks are expected to meet again the marginal improvement in the policy level. Further easing of credit policy, indicating that the central government reconfirmed weak economic fundamentals and a weak real estate market,scarpe hogan uomo, real estate stocks in the valuation of fixed early experience, drivers of the subsequent share price upside will come from marginal improvement policy level to maintain in 2015 the real estate fundamentals weak balance of judgment. Overall,escarpin louboutin pas cher, the real estate market will show a pattern of volume or price level.
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