Friends of pipe clear: monetary policy neutral tighten Rate will fall possibility
????????
"Principal Strategies" Interview with Minsheng Securities assistant to the president, executive president of Institute chief macroeconomic researcher
?
Internet economy boom spawned net red, as in the interpretation of the webcast platform over petroleum jelly yield Doha Conference chief macroeconomic researcher tube Kiyotomo, told "chief measures" interview, said the economy is red net capitalization of intangible assets, very impressive future or IPO. The intellectual capital of the future is expected to become the focus of the capital market,louboutin pigalle prix boutique, to be the next value of depression. The so-called intellectual capital refers to the knowledge and skills people have, due to the not yet mature cash generating mode, it is still in relative market valuation of depression and cognitive depression. Specifically, the traditional categories of assets due to the high leverage, high foam or carrying small space, liquidity has started to show signs of intangible capital inflows, both patents, goodwill and other intangible assets tradition, including IP, intelligence, color values, etc. emerging intangible assets. In addition to the areas of expertise analyst net red, pipe clear Friends admits: We observed that & lsquo; different network red angles and others, they see the & lsquo; color value, we both look & lsquo; Yen value, see & lsquo; research value.
?
Currently there have been differences in the inflation point of view,site officiel christian louboutin, the point of the tube Kiyotomo clearly believe that the current excess liquidity must be clear, there has been a real asset to the virtual removal flow. The overall judgment is that the next step wheeled mobility will turn three directions,adidas paris, one off the virtual to the real, the flow of general consumer goods, now appear beans you hard you play garlic phenomenon; the second is the flow of works of art; the third is the intangible capital of. Since last year, asset prices began to go wheeled goods, then went to the general consumer prices, which is an asset wheeled very important feature is coming fast,boutique louboutin, go fast when you're rushed, it is very easy Man has become in the high disk access. For the stock market, in a word: quick, dull is true.
?
So, combined with the current fundamentals and the policy side, targeted at asset allocation, pipe Kiyotomo think the moment for buying specialized index products, combined with the inflation index products. For example, if you choose gold as a safe-haven investment target class, also related fund products can be considered; the second, at the right point, line the city's purchase of real estate is a wise investment choice. Although first-tier cities are now the real estate bubble of the ingredients, but the choice of the point is of particular importance. He stressed: when inflation is up, monetary policy began to focus on inflation, monetary policy appears neutral on marginal tighten this situation, when the possibility of house prices will fall. At present, monetary policy became more cautious, so this is a negative impact on asset prices, so investors should pay close attention to asset prices under the influence of monetary policy changes.
?
Interview Record:
?
Reporter Li Ce: Red current network economy has attracted wide attention, you have to write the article indicates that the network economy is red capitalized intangible assets, which should be how to understand?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: Red network said the economy should be a relatively popularized the word, that is, we use this Red explosion the night a lot of people in this way to describe this phenomenon. But from our perspective, professional research, in fact, it is the capital of an intangible asset, and we divide it into four categories: a class that is similar to goodwill, trademarks, intellectual property, this type of capitalization of intangible assets, in this inside it is already reflected in the listed company. We looked at, in 2013 this goodwill, trademarks listed companies accounted for the proportion of net assets actually increased, the performance of the more prominent is the main information technology business, so this actually capitalized. The second category is actually the IP capitalization, such as many actress, drama star, writer, his works, plays,louboutin homme, novels, creative, it is capitalized. And 2015 is itself an IP capitalization of a bumper year, many institutional investors have actually voted in this type of IP. The third category we call Yan capitalized value is long handsome, pretty long, we are willing to look at, so that there are institutional investors willing to invest, he can anchor this pattern chamber, by endorsement advertising model, these go to cash. The fourth category is actually intellectual and capital resources of fact, we generally talk about net red economy should be attributed to the fourth category, that is, intellectual resources and capitalization. Strictly speaking, the color value is also a resource, because your resources endowment Well, I was pretty long, handsome, good proportion, this is your resource. But more sustainable should be the intellectual capital of, for example, many professionals, he may be the Finance,,,, and he has the possibility of sports and cultural capital of finance, why did he capitalized it? Here the first involves a change of investment is very important, that we see a lot of the primary market investment companies, it is a vertical, is the capital came after many investment managers looking to see different industries,adidas stan smith femme, and then go to the project. Then the intellectual capital of the carrier, in fact, it is possible to go horizontal, it can open up the capital side, the industrial side, it becomes an intermediary, it can filter items, you can also filter the capital, put the two revitalize and optimize. At the same time because he has a professional ability, his professional screening capacity, he screened out of the product, investors more confidence in itself that he had influence on the market, a brand, then he can play all these we call Portrait of the investment company can not role, so this is a process of intellectual capital. He and our traditional sense alone brush face red Internet is not the same, of course, if the face value of the carrier itself is also very high, handsome, so much the better.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: economic data show that in April the new financial services and composite PMI both fell, pessimists believe may appear now downward economic pressure continued to expand, although there are optimists believe downward pressure on the economy, but also turn optimistic face well, you now how to interpret the macroeconomic data?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: I think it is neutral understand it, because this new fiscal PMI data fell slightly, should also be expected, because there is actually a head, I think it is a common-sense questions, then economics actually I made to explain this question is that we are talking about multiple equilibria. We are now at a low balance,swarovski orecchini, in simple terms, when prices are low, because the market is not clearing, everyone desperately to inventory, lower costs, the so-called cost efficiency and stayed in business knows, when the economy is bad, the price down, companies do one thing, what is it? cost efficiency, reduce costs, improve efficiency, because you have no other way to reduce inventory. While reducing inventory to a certain extent, there is inventory covering needs, covering inventory means the price rebound. Coupled with the steady growth of this external environment has undergone some changes, projects and more, then this time the price rebound again,louboutin chaussures, but because the market is not clearing, after prices rebounded, we found that many enterprises make up the inventory after further expand production capacity, a lot of zombies are discontinued, after the expiry of the resumption of production, expand production capacity,scarpe hogan originali, productivity up, and demand does not recover so much, prices will fall again, prices fall again, caught up in a vicious price war competition between enterprises . Called on the economics of multiple equilibrium model, in fact, in terms of common sense, it is that you do not have the market-clearing, no fundamental improvement in demand will inevitably happen. This is a very normal kind of state, and if it does not appear, I think it was not normal.
?
Reporter Li Ce: For this state, you think we're adjusting structure, promoting transformation or say what needs to be done to make it more stable and able to work and ordered it?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: I think there are several things that must be done, is also not open around around, adjust the structure of this process, do not think the pain & hellip;
?
Reporter Li Ce: Reform of growing pains.
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: Without this painful period, even more than just growing pains, may quite long, is unlikely, to do a few things first, you really want to reform state-owned enterprises, we should say that this is one problem encountered in decades, you carefully consider why we have been saying that the state-owned enterprise reform? Why not say private enterprise reform? it means that we are indeed facing a lot of problem institutions, mechanisms on the state-owned enterprises in this field. Now many programs to discuss the reform of state-owned enterprises, many did not exceed more than a dozen years ago, a lot of discussion programs, this is the first state-owned enterprises must change, it must become a main market, rather than a simple such a body of existing market characteristics,basket louboutin, there are government property, it must be a simple market players.
?
Li Ce: You're saying if tight monetary policy began, we can buy a house stormed, this point about what time to appear for the next monetary and fiscal policies to make a kind of outlook??
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: Our next round of price fluctuations may largely depend on changes in the rate of inflation, if inflation continues to rise, then the monetary policy to be more cautious,adidas jeremy scott instinct hi, relatively speaking, then for asset prices,cinture gucci, particularly real estate prices the impact will be greater, then this will continue carefully to what extent, it does not say. But generally speaking, in addition to the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices, location, resources gathering ability, the ability to gather the population, there are many factors, overall I do not think as many people say, China's real estate prices will collapse out, I I think it is unlikely.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: that is, we look at a monetary policy signal, but there are many other factors to consider.
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: Yes, I think monetary policy is a very important factor in real estate prices, but it is not the only factor.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: facing downward pressure on economic, financial and tax also decreased, but want to protect the employment of laid-off workers, we see the influx of laid-off in 2000, many laid-off workers have entered the private small and medium enterprises, are now in the development of private small and medium the above companies is not a big problem? to how to resolve this question of balance?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: This question actually say in theory, but in practice, really a little difficult to do, why, for example a worker of coal enterprises, now you let him into a private enterprise, for example, this is private enterprise engaged in the Internet? or do anything else, he must have faced the problem of skills,louboutin soldes, which is structural unemployment. So to encourage corporate mergers and acquisitions, to the process of production capacity, it is necessary to really go through the training in this way to improve his skills, by encouraging mergers and reorganization of enterprises receive more laid-off workers in this way to try to mitigate this pain. Of course, there is in fact by encouraging enterprises to upgrade, and then there is a worker retraining, re-education process, the original post employment. So this one for private enterprises, apart from the current stock is concerned, private enterprises more active, then we can open more areas to encourage people to invest, some new areas. I think for a lot of areas, especially in the traditional industry is relatively concentrated areas, in fact, a very important way to change our thinking, this is not literally change our thinking and high-sounding to say our minds, change ideas, is really going to change their thinking, do not hold Shou incomplete, why three generations in a business inside? Why this place we can not clean up the market environment, maintaining a good business environment and encourage more enterprises, especially private investment come in? in fact, we found in many parts of this case, it is a disadvantage, the proportion of state-owned enterprises is very high, a very high proportion of heavy industry, a very high proportion of traditional industries, once the demand down, these companies, wounded very deep in these areas, this is an old problem.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: NDRC recently pledged to expand effective investment, has approved a number of new projects, in March new credit 13,000 billion in January was 2.51 trillion, it is not returned to stimulate demand for the old?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: I really can not think back to the NDRC said demand stimulus old, in fact, we are talking about supply-side structural reforms itself should include supply and demand ends, on the one hand called moderate expansion of aggregate demand, on the other hand called to strict production capacity and the supply side of the problem to be solved, in fact, many of the supply-side problem, space is also great, so I think the grant project, steady growth in itself nothing wrong with such measures. But we should pay attention to a phenomenon, why the growth rate of private investment is lower than the growth rate of government investment? Now this thing also attracted the attention of the State Council, it is expected to let you clear, which requires compliance with laws and regulations, opening up many areas, have a relatively sound government strengthen protection of property rights attitude.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: in particular, in what areas?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: In fact, in many areas, such as PPP field, how to dispel the fear of private capital, private capital that many local governments are likely to default, then how to deal with after default how proceedings of this problem is to be solved, do not you solve?? then, private investment is not willing to go. Now we see a large number of PPP in this area is state-owned enterprises into state-owned commercial bank money into private capital into the overall or less. For example, we have invested in many industries, policy changes are not expected to give you a stable? Today I cast into tomorrow you the policy has changed, this is not acceptable. Here guests have to delete the words
?
Correspondent Lee policy: We see previous PPP projects often have the government debt, how to let the government off the balance sheet, so that the government less able to reveal all the details in this regard can you improve in the short-term future?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: This idea is actually very clear, PPP project has three categories, public welfare, quasi-public welfare, business projects, public course for the Government to reveal all the details of your own is a regional or national a public product, which in itself requires local finance, the central government reveal all the details. Quasi-public projects, where the head has many operating modes, then the business projects, private capital is to enable you to make money, because morally it can to support your local economy, but from a practical investment process it has no obligation to support you, it has to make money. Well designed, this product development project law, the law for the protection of private capital,louboutin botte, it is particularly important.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: we have seen recently on commodity steel, commodity futures market trend is the emergence of a correction in the short-term future, do you think commodities will be what kind of trend especially as gold, agricultural products, crude oil? this context how do you think?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: Our overall judgment of commodities is such that there is called the top, under the bottom, called up on top of that we have to crude oil, for example, fell by about $ 20 back to a level not much? reality, because in the past few years did experience a destocking, demand improved slightly. But there on the top. Why? Oversupply, demand recovery is not so fast, that the supply of expansion much faster than the speed of recovery in demand, so on top there, I think the price of oil to $ 50 WTI crude oil should be very important a ceiling, because supply too much, I turned out to be oil out of the system, you know? I've seen for many years oil prices, a fall in oil prices because it is primarily the supply side of the problem, the main problem is not the level of demand , that is, too much supply of conventional oil and gas resources, Iran, Iraq to join, because its important oil-producing countries. So unconventional oil and gas resources, the development of shale oil and gas production has increased, and we demand down again. It is difficult to recover the oil price in the past we said $ 80 to around $ 100 this level. Then other commodities are more alike, so we have called on the top, under the bottom. Gold prices are actually from the beginning of last year I was more optimistic. Why? A very important reason is that global excess liquidity, both quantitative easing, then the QE is actually hidden risk if Gaobu Cheng,talon louboutin, may appear not level small financial risks.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: We see the market is more concerned about inflation, and indeed a quarterly report also said that we are the price has gone up, do you think we are now inflation to an extent of what this area needs what warning??
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: I now feel better than I had expected inflation is likely to be given more attention late last year and early this year, we are not particularly worried about inflation, we think that liquidity could affect general consumer prices is not so big, because it more went asset prices,bottes louboutin, but the asset price wheeled there is a new feature since last year, does appear to be off to the virtual reality, began to go to the merchandise, then went to the general consumer prices go up. So this is the case, we are concerned about the possibility of the CPI increase than before, and in the past 10 years,louboutin official, we used to have a saying, everyone in the discussion of excess liquidity, when in fact there is a saying called currency expansion, will bring inflation, but in the middle there is a time difference. In fact, from 2002 to 2007, at this stage there have been currency expansion, resulting in the case of inflation, excess liquidity, we also see the so-called later you play beans, garlic you hard case. Then this one is not occur? I think there may be a high probability event, why? Such assets does appear wheeled off the virtual to real liquidity to the commodity, to black commodity, after the expiry of the general will Consumer? is in possession of price weights among the vast proportion of the general consumer prices go up, I think this really is to pay attention to. Once up inflation, the impact of monetary policy is relatively large, because the important goal of monetary policy is inflation, we feel that the original 3% inflation rate is not worth worrying about, but if mobility present a so-called de-virtual this feature of the solid, then inflation may also be up soon, of course, there is no problem, we are also paying close attention to this indicator.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: this phenomenon for the people, the people see is their own money in the hands of the hair, if bought buns and garlic, it may have to pay, this phenomenon, for them there are no What oriented investment advice? I Am not going to buy the other, such as gold, can make their own money to become less hair.
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: I truly say that most people in inflation or asset price bubble, in fact, are passive recipients,
?
This round of asset wheeled very important feature is to go fast when you're rushed, you become then set Xia high, because wheeled quickly, so only one medium piece, I I think that's particularly interesting, in fact, we wrote a few reports also spoke specifically of this problem is the failure of Merrill Lynch investment assets wheeled quickly, Merrill Lynch investment eventually became a fan, it would be the case. Then you can buy specialized index products, such as index products with this combination of inflation. There is this type of fund, the second is to buy the real estate I think some of the first-tier cities, some say the real estate tier cities are now very high bubble, and now there is a bubble component, but the choice is particularly important point in time .
?
Reporter Li Ce: What point do you think is better choice?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: up to inflation, monetary policy began to focus on inflation, monetary policy appears neutral on marginal tighten this situation, when the possibility of house prices will fall.
?
The margin, I think, I think that we should pay attention to changes in monetary policy, in fact, became more cautious monetary policy, so this is actually have a negative impact on asset prices, investors actually pay attention to such assets price changes.
?
Correspondent Lee policy: economic data has turned for the better, but our stock market is still hovering around 3,000 points, people are looking for the spring market did not materialize, then for this point in time is not to say that hunters or just leave everyone? early can no shares of danger?
?
Chief tube Kiyotomo: I think so, that we do the second quarter, asset allocation strategy specifically mentioned, when in fact, what some of us call it called quick word in the first quarter,moncler scontati, and why we have observed that the assets wheel?? move particularly fast, including in the stock market this hot wheeled very fast, if you are a regular investor, not particularly professional, I suggest you do not go in, professional investors are very difficult, because for example, like large institutions, it is funded very large, are difficult captivated, and this time I would think that there are two ways: first, if you are particularly large funds, so watch industry, look at valuations, do value investing. Some people say you're here to tell me the value of the investment is not it a bit ridiculous? No, because you are on the industry, this business judgment, it is a security boundary, then you this is the case, in terms of large organizations, you buy these my heart is not panic. Then the agency is relatively small, relatively lower scale, or the average investor is concerned, we call quick, because wheeled particularly fast, too hot wheeled quickly, just leave. I have talked about, so you find a lot of times this is a hot spot, this is a time of opportunity, you definitely rushed at a high level.
?
Quick, no trend opportunities.
????
相关的主题文章：