标题: scarpe hogan uomo Russia and other economies [打印本页] 作者: 0m3gcf7x2v 时间: 2016-11-3 04:26:41 标题: scarpe hogan uomo Russia and other economies
China's economic recovery premise: RMB real effective exchange rate devaluation | Rates | devaluation
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Author: Lu political commissar, chief economist at Industrial Bank
Summary:
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No matter from which side, the RMB exchange rate have been adjusted to the needs of trend turning point mark. So, how to adjust in order to avoid the so-called currency war to discredit it? To this end, the present report includes G20, including the world's 20 major economies as the object, a detailed empirical investigation, trying to provide some experience for reference.
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From the 2007 crisis, the world's major economies, the largest exchange rate depreciation of view, as long as the local currency against the US dollar bilateral exchange rate depreciation does not exceed the maximum 40% of the real effective exchange rate depreciation does not exceed the maximum of 30%, it would not be provoked the currency war.
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Down from February 2013 G7 Finance and Central Bank Governors Meeting determined currency war international norms, the exchange rate is determined by the market, the exchange rate policy of the authorities is not set objectives,chaussures adidas, the policy for the domestic economic situation and conducted adjust the exchange rate adjustment induced by any amplitude, it is acceptable.
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Key consideration the current economic downturn is the real effective exchange rate overvaluation, we suggest that the Government: accelerate the RMB exchange rate in the market,armani occhiali da vista, as soon as possible to float freely; slowdown in the Chinese economy, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates background, the flow.
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Keywords: exchange rate devaluation, currency wars
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Fluctuations against the dollar to depreciate if a little direction, the currency war (otherwise known as competitive devaluation, in this article on both indiscriminate) will soon sounded noisy, and even become a lot of serious economists and policy analysts reasons cited without hesitation.
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But, in the end what is the currency war? Even the currency war often talks about people, I am afraid not many people really had to study! This report attempts to conduct a comprehensive analysis on this.
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1, the concept of carding
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Concept exchange rate comb. There are several exchange rate: the US dollar is the international monetary standard, and thus, in the daily exchange rate concept, the currency against the dollar is undoubtedly affected by the highest level of concern. Thus, in the media and marketplace language, the exchange rate is the bilateral exchange rates (especially against the dollar), if the exchange rate depreciation comes naturally refers to the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. However, from the point of view of the economic impact, the impact is greater than the dollar bilateral exchange rate against the renminbi is the yuan exchange rate against a basket of currencies, namely the effective exchange rate. Also effective exchange rate in two ways: First, the nominal effective exchange rate; the second is the real effective exchange rate. In both effective exchange rate, on the real effective exchange rate a greater impact on the economy.
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The concept of exchange rate depreciation comb. Changes in exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies weighted, of course, mainly caused by the bilateral exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, but in many cases,longines puma tag occhiali da vista, the devaluation of the RMB against the US dollar bilateral exchange rate does not necessarily bring devaluation against a basket of currencies. Typically, only the yuan against the US dollar bilateral exchange rate depreciation bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar depreciation more than any other currency basket, the basket or heavier than the right to a large currency depreciation against the US dollar higher, it may induce effective exchange rate depreciation. As for the real effective exchange rate, because of the need to eliminate the calculation of prices, therefore, more complex, and sometimes even the bilateral exchange rate against the dollar is very large, but if domestic prices rose higher, the real effective exchange rate of the currency on or appreciation.
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Chart 1 Argentine peso against the US dollar effective exchange rate changes and the actual
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?Source: CEIC, Societe Generale study.
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Select domestic economies, high inflation, it is easier to display. Argentine Peso Currency change graph 1 provided that the bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar depreciation of real effective exchange rate does not mean necessarily devalue a vivid case. 2013 - September April 2014 this time (calculated April 2014 August 2013 relative to the magnitude of the change), the Argentine peso against the US dollar depreciated by 43.5%, but the real effective exchange rate is still 28.5% appeared so not a small appreciation. One very important reason is: at this time, the Argentine domestic price inflation is very high (CPI time series data can be too short, so we chose a longer sequence of PPI, specific see Figure 2).
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Chart 2 Argentina PPT YoY Change
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?Source: CEIC, Societe Generale study.
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2, the exchange rate depreciation: currency war experience study
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Unless the implementation of a fixed exchange rate against the US economy, otherwise, the bilateral exchange rate fluctuations are normal, only the magnitude of the difference is that, in that case, you need to confirm is this: in the end be devalued and to what extent, it hardly is a currency war? This may be a first experience dimension.
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We use the Baidu search found that the currency war this concept was first due in September 2010 Brazilian Finance Minister Mantega world has fallen into a & lsquo; currency war rhetoric and began to attract global attention. In the following March 2012, Spain "uprising News" article entitled "Brazil and the United States announced that the European currency war," the article, which said: Brazilian President Rousseff complained about the US and European monetary easing to form a monetary tsunami, undermined the industry emerging countries.
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To this end, we will be from public opinion generally concerned about the change of the currency against the US dollar bilateral exchange rates, as well as from the greater economic impact of real effective exchange rate two angles, examine the world's major economies, currencies (except the implementation of a fixed exchange rate outside of Saudi Arabia all G20 economies and New Zealand, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, a total of 20 economies) exchange rate devaluation.
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Specific study method is: the data for the period January 2000 Month - October 2015 (the latest data as of individual economies to September), the data frequency is monthly average; the period of time the exchange rate of the firm level (referred to as high points, the same below), and the weakest level (called lows, the same below) comparing the magnitude of the change in percentage terms, but determined to be low (before the high point of even lower lows after highs not included, particularly low in 2007 and before are not included, so the choice is mainly because of the global currency war rhetoric is concerned occurred in 2010 and beyond related to such statements is clearly for the 2007 and after the devaluation of its currency in some economies induced). Bilateral exchange rates of other currencies except the US dollar, the currency of choice is the US dollar, the real effective exchange rate of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) calculated effective exchange rate index (2005 = 100), data from CEIC. As for the dollar, because of its international currency itself, there is no so-called bilateral exchange rate, for which we use most often cited market Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) dollar index, as an alternative to bilateral exchange rates (in fact, the index is mini basket nominal effective exchange rate); real effective exchange rate of the dollar also derived from the BIS real effective exchange rate index (2005 = 100).
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Chart 3 the world's major economies,adidas samoa homme, the largest bilateral exchange rate depreciation
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?Description: 1 Average 1 is a simple arithmetic average of all the economies of depreciation; 2 is to remove the simple arithmetic average of the average of Turkey, Argentina, South Africa,louboutin pas cher, Russia and Brazil after five economies, the reason for excluding them, is to avoid. analysts believe that these economies there have been crises or instability, exchange rate depreciation and thus are not comparable sort of debate. Chart 4 in the same way.
?2. parentheses time, the first one is the high point,cartable michael kors, and the second is low, the low was in September 2015 or October economies, meaning that it may still be in the process of devaluation of the figure in accordance with high spots appear sooner or later sort,nike occhiali da sole, showing the process of depreciation of the more rearward start late. Exhibit 4 and the same.
Source: CEIC, Societe Generale study.
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For the largest bilateral exchange rate depreciation of the study, it is provided by Figure 3. The results showed that the depreciation of these currencies is the largest in Argentina, Turkey, Russia and Brazil, are up 844%, 451%, 186% and 150%, dollar, euro, British depreciation are about 40%, yen the depreciation of up to 61%.
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All 20 average depreciation economies (ie chart 3 average 1) 122% after depreciation tick off the four preceding listed rather exaggerated economy, the average depreciation rate (ie average Chart 3 2) as high as 45%.
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And in all these currencies,loudboutin shoes homme ete, the RMB is the only single-digit currency depreciation, only 4%.
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The above study show that both the reference to the average depreciation excluding extreme values after 45% or reference induced depreciation of Brazil complain dollar and the euro by about 40%, say from experience, can be considered: at least the bilateral exchange rate depreciation not more than 40%, still far from participating in the currency war!
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Chart 4 the world's major economies,hogan interactive, real effective exchange rate of the maximum depreciation
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?NOTE: In order to maintain a consistent calculation of the mean 2 and the bilateral exchange rates,hogan scarpe interactive donna, this figure is an average of 2 also reject simple arithmetic average of Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, Russia and Brazil after five economies,
?Source: CEIC, Societe Generale study.
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For the real effective exchange rate of the study, provided by chart 4. The results show that in all 20 economies,outlet hogan, the real effective exchange rate depreciation is the biggest in Japan, Brazil, Russia, South Korea, respectively -47% - 45% - 38% and 37%; the lowest effective practical Japanese exchange rate almost until now, compared with Japan, Brazil, the devaluation in Russia was only recently occurred; Korea was larger depreciation, but then it was an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate,louboutin homme basket, the won relative to its previous October the only high point depreciated -16%, in the study of economies seems low. These differences are, to a large extent,hogan outlet, helps to understand: why are showing the same depreciation of the dollar exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate, but the growth performance of these economies body but not the same.
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Of particular concern is that, although previously mentioned Turkey and Argentina's currency against the US dollar bilateral exchange rate depreciation great (as high as 844% and 451%), but its effective exchange rate depreciation was only 29% and 22% .
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Major developed economies, the United States, the eurozone, Britain's depreciation were 29% - 22% - 29%, Japan up to -47%.
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Also not surprising is that China is still in these economies real effective exchange rate depreciation of the smallest economies, with only 1% better than nothing.
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Simple arithmetic mean of the 20 largest economies in the real effective exchange rate depreciation (that is Exhibit 4 average 1) -25%, after excluding Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, Brazil, Russia and other economies, real effective exchange rate of the maximum depreciation the simple arithmetic average of -23%.
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According to the above study of real effective exchange rate, with reference to the average level of the United States, the euro zone, United Kingdom about -22 to -29% level of about -23 to -25%, and, at least real effective exchange rate depreciation does not exceed 30%, to talk about not on the money involved in the war.
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Incidentally, the comprehensive bilateral exchange rates and the depreciation of the real effective exchange rate situation, it can make a more certain prediction: the future as long as the yen to continue to maintain the current considerable depreciation in the future Japan's economic recovery will be determined of.
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3, the international norms of currency war
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The dollar amount of width (QE) induced depreciation of the dollar, pulled down thereafter pounds, euros and yen depreciated domino induced complaints and widespread concern Brazil and other emerging economies of the world, especially in 2012 to Abe massive depreciation of the yen threatened to make the global currency war imminent. To prevent global chaos, February 12, 2013 seven western countries (G7) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in the UK (after the full press release see Annex 1, short, refined, direct), identified by countries exchange rate adjustments necessary to follow international norms, international norms which were subsequently accepted by the year G20 meeting.
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Due to its three core specification, therefore, I will call it a currency war three principles:
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First,adidas jeremy scott, the exchange rate must be determined by the market;
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Second, fiscal policy and monetary policy only for domestic objectives using domestic instruments;
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Third, do not set the exchange rate target.
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In the case of following the above three principles, any change in the exchange rate is normative, so as not to be seen as to provoke a currency war. Precisely because of this, so far, both bilateral exchange rates or real effective exchange rate, the yen advanced economies are the largest currency depreciation, but because of the yen exchange rate is market-oriented, the sharp depreciation of the yen is mention vibration domestic economy induced by the implementation of quantitative easing, and Abe came to power not explicitly mentioned depreciation of the yen continued to target position (during the election campaign, Abe has repeatedly referred to the depreciation of the yen will target level), therefore, G7 agreement confirmation: depreciation of the yen should be condemned!
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4, Revelation to China
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As we "Japanese Currency Risk Murder Chinese economy", December 8, 2013 "overvalued real effective exchange rate of RMB and China's economic take off to the real virtual" in the September 26, 2012, December 25,hogan online, 2013 "Old honeymoon with the new pain, "May 18,air max femme, 2014," China's economic leverage hanging etiology and prescription ", December 27, 2014" prisoner exchange: 2015 China economic Outlook ", December 9, 2015 Research report "standing on the knee: 2016 China economic Outlook" and other reports as sustained attention, and systematic empirical research related to the development of the situation judged continue to corroborate: overvalued real effective exchange rate of RMB, it is the second of the current particularly difficult industry, the entire Chinese economy in the doldrums and the root causes of deflation. Thus, the real effective exchange rate adjustment can be achieved, it will be the premise of the Chinese economy can recover.
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Combined with earlier visits, we propose:
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First, taking into account changes in bilateral exchange rates are adjusted real effective exchange rate of the most efficient means to this end should be accelerated market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate,louboutin pigalle noire, the realization of people-dollar bilateral exchange rates float freely as soon as possible in order to avoid currency devaluation after the international public opinion or to slander our country manipulating currency war like (see the first international norms);
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Second, the exchange rate is expected to guide the official line from stable to market, with the current economic situation and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates background, the flow.
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Report (Micro Signal: ifengxbg) Phoenix FINANCE heavy build macroeconomic analysis of reading sections,adidas js glow in dark, the most forward-looking, the most authoritative analysis to help you grasp the investment trend.
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